AIR Worldwide Analysis Finds European Insurers Could Face Winter Storm Losses Exceeding EUR 40 Billion.BOSTON -- A new analysis of European extratropical cyclones by AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR) confirms that Europe could experience a winter storm resulting in insured losses in excess of e1/440 billion. "For an extratropical cyclone to produce a loss greater than we have experienced to date, it takes the right combination of just three storm characteristics: size, intensity, and path," said Dr. Peter Dailey, meteorologist and director of atmospheric science at AIR. "The largest historical losses have resulted from storms with extremes incorporating one or two of these ingredients. At some point, we will experience a storm where all three will coincide." Windstorm wind·storm n. A storm with high winds or violent gusts but little or no rain. windstorm A storm with high winds or violent gusts but little or no rain. Daria, which caused damage across six countries in 1990, was one of the largest European windstorms in recent history. Using its extratropical cyclone model for Europe, AIR estimates that if Daria were to recur today, it would cost insurers more than e1/410 billion. "Daria was large, but it is not the most intense storm in the historical record," said Dr. Dailey. "A storm that impacted Greenland and Iceland in December 1986 was both large and much more intense. The 1986 storm had the lowest central pressure ever recorded for an extratropical cyclone in the Northern Hemisphere but remains largely unknown because it failed to reach the population centers of continental Europe Continental Europe, also referred to as mainland Europe or simply the Continent, is the continent of Europe, explicitly excluding European islands and, at times, peninsulas. ." The AIR study determined that had the jet stream been in a somewhat different position at the time, the storm could have taken a path over Europe's highest density of insured properties. "An extratropical cyclone that is as large as Daria, intense as the December 1986 storm and follows a path over Europe's highest density of insured properties is entirely possible from a meteorological me·te·or·ol·o·gy n. The science that deals with the phenomena of the atmosphere, especially weather and weather conditions. [French météorologie, from Greek standpoint," said Dr. Dailey. "Our analysis shows losses from such a storm could exceed e1/440 billion." "Many insurers were surprised by the $41 billion insured loss resulting from Hurricane Katrina  Editing of this page by unregistered or newly registered users is currently disabled due to vandalism. , despite the fact that the AIR U.S. hurricane model already contained hundreds of scenarios with higher losses," said YErn Tatge, managing director of AIR Worldwide GmbH. "Similarly, European insurers need to ensure they are prepared for winter storm losses far beyond those experienced to date. Winter storms are by far the greatest threat for Europe in terms of insured losses. It's not a question of if, but rather of when." About AIR Worldwide Corporation AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR) is a leading risk modeling company helping clients manage the financial impact of catastrophes and weather. Utilizing the latest science and technology, AIR models natural catastrophes in more than 40 countries and the risk from terrorism in the United States A common definition of terrorism is the systematic use or threatened use of violence to intimidate a population or government and thereby effect political, religious, or ideological change. . Other areas of expertise include site-specific seismic engineering analysis, catastrophe bonds catastrophe bond A debt security with a payoff tied to the relative severity of a natural disaster such as a hurricane or earthquake. Bondholders are paid with insurance premiums but may have to accept reduced principal repayment in the event the specified , and property replacement cost valuation. An ISO (1) See ISO speed. (2) (International Organization for Standardization, Geneva, Switzerland, www.iso.ch) An organization that sets international standards, founded in 1946. The U.S. member body is ANSI. business, AIR was founded in 1987 to provide its insurance, reinsurance The contract made between an insurance company and a third party to protect the insurance company from losses. The contract provides for the third party to pay for the loss sustained by the insurance company when the company makes a payment on the original contract. , corporate, and government clients a complete line of risk modeling software and consulting services that produce consistent and reliable results. Headquartered in Boston, AIR has additional offices in North America North America, third largest continent (1990 est. pop. 365,000,000), c.9,400,000 sq mi (24,346,000 sq km), the northern of the two continents of the Western Hemisphere. , Europe, and Asia. For more information, please visit www.air-worldwide.com. |
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