AFGHANISTAN - Beyond Bin Laden.

Experts warn, however, that even if the current dragnet succeeds in capturing Bin Laden, Al-Qaeda will remain potent and will have to be dealt with on the global scale as well as regionally on the Wahhabi scale. While the US is have to focus on Al-Qaeda's global network, including affiliates in about 60 countries, the Saudi government will have to neutralise the Wahhabi religious establishment.

Whether or not the US, NATO, Gen. Musharraf's Pakistan and their Saudi allies will succeed in this will depend on a carefully-prepared post-Bin Laden plan that should also deal with the Taliban and various Salafi/Jihadi organizations. Judging by past experience - the US had no post-Saddam plan for the Iraqis - no such plan will be expected in the near future.

How Afghanistan will emerge if Bin Laden is killed or captured will depend a great deal on who will win the US presidential election in November (see Part 4).