AEROSPACE PREDICTED TO HOLD STRONG.Byline: GREGORY J. WILCOX There was a bright spot in last week's obituary on the residential real estate market from economists at UCLA's Anderson Forecast: History isn't repeating itself. In this bearish Bearish Words used to describe investor attitude. A bearish investor believes that a particular asset or the market as a whole will decline in value. bearish cycle -- the first in 16 years -- the aerospace sector will not be the anchor that drags prices down. The Anderson economist noted that this is a volume, or sales cycle, not one involving prices. The last downturn involved both. ``This is not a replay of the '90s,'' agreed Jack Kyser, chief economist The Chief Economist is a single position job class having primary responsibility for the development, coordination, and production of economic and financial analysis. It is distinguished from the other economist positions by the broader scope of responsibility encompassing the at the Los Angeles Los Angeles (lôs ăn`jələs, lŏs, ăn`jəlēz'), city (1990 pop. 3,485,398), seat of Los Angeles co., S Calif.; inc. 1850. County Economic Development Corp. ``The economy is growing and adding jobs.'' Nevertheless, housing and aerospace still have synergy. Aerospace and defense companies had been a major component of the regional economy for decades, building and supporting military and commercial customers. By 1990, the end of the Cold War, there were about 214,000 jobs in aerospace manufacturing in Southern California Southern California, also colloquially known as SoCal, is the southern portion of the U.S. state of California. Centered on the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego, Southern California is home to nearly 24 million people and is the nation's second most populated region, , Anderson economist Jerry Nickelsburg noted. The sector accounted for more than one in 10 California jobs, and the state had about 25percent of the nation's aerospace jobs. Winning the Cold War came with a price, though. The government scaled back many high-profile programs, including production of the B2 bomber. Nickelsburg estimates the state lost 200,000 aerospace and defense jobs from 1990 to 2000. Jobs that weren't eliminated outright were transferred to other states. This, coupled with a recession, washed away the real estate market's foundation. Homeowners lost jobs, then they lost their homes, sales plunged and inventory and foreclosures soared. Prices tumbled. In the San Fernando Valley San Fernando Valley Valley, southern California, U.S. Northwest of central Los Angeles, the valley is bounded by the San Gabriel, Santa Susana, and Santa Monica mountains and the Simi Hills. , the median price of a previously owned, single-family house bottomed out at $155,000 in November 1995. That was 36.7percent off the previous record high. The median price hit a record $625,000 in June 2006, a whopping 303.2percent above the 1995 low point. And while the median has fallen $15,000 since then, it's still 293.5percent above the last market cycle low. Aerospace began climbing out of its hole in 1996, when Congress approved production of the C-17 cargo aircraft A cargo aircraft is an airplane designed and used for the carriage of goods, rather than passengers. This role demands a number of features that makes a cargo aircraft instantly identifiable; a "fat" looking fuselage, a high-wing to allow the cargo area to sit near the ground, a in Long Beach. Nicklesburg is now somewhat optimistic op·ti·mist n. 1. One who usually expects a favorable outcome. 2. A believer in philosophical optimism. op . ``Recent manufacturing data seem to suggest that a plateau was achieved in 2003, and the decline in economic activity may have been arrested.'' And he expects aerospace demand to strengthen in California slightly over the next year. One day after his forecast, the region got more good news. On Friday, the Senate approved a request to buy 22 C-17s, 10 more than in an earlier proposal, and a $4.4billion infusion into the local economy. ``Wow, isn't that good news,'' Kyser gushed. And a harmonic convergence | The Harmonic Convergence was a loosely organized new age spiritual event which occurred on August 16 and August 17, 1987, when groups of people gathered in various sacred sites and "mystical" places all over the world to usher in a new era, a date based primarily on the of luck. While sales are falling, housing prices are expected to plateau, according to according to prep. 1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians. 2. In keeping with: according to instructions. 3. Anderson forecasters. Just like the aerospace sector. |
|
||||||||||||||||
Printer friendly
Cite/link
Email
Feedback
Reader Opinion