AEROSPACE IS THE KEY TO STATE'S PROSPERITY, NOT BUSES.

Byline: David Goodreau

MCDONNELL Douglas announced Oct. 28th that their MD-XX airliner was too risky and expensive to undertake. Defense sources separately mentioned that for the right price Long Beach-based Douglas Aircraft could be purchased. Just another sign of California's aerospace downturn responsible for more than 65,000 lost jobs.

But who cares? According to recent rosy economic projections, we have replaced all these aerospace jobs with commercial products and service jobs - right? Do we really understand the consequences of the disappearance of this vital economic sector?

A recent economic conference hosted by the Small Manufacturers Association of California was held to discuss the future of California's aerospace market. The conference had over 500 small manufacturers, economists, defense analysts, unions and political leaders such as Gov. Pete Wilson and Rep. Jane Harman, D-Los Angeles.

According to those experts, the future of aerospace in California is bleak. Yes, at least for the time being we will continue to get a lot of piecework, especially from the airline business, but the Economic Roundtable projects that about 60 percent of all defense dollars (hence jobs) in the Los Angeles area come from the B-2 and C-17 programs. Those programs are scheduled to end in the near future. Manufacturers are connected to the hip of aerospace in many areas, and if aerospace disintegrates, cascading effects in other industries will be unavoidable. The impact - a projected loss of 20,000 aerospace jobs plus an additional 30,000 jobs lost in plating companies, machine shops and distributors - is devastating. These jobs are also critical to making buses, biotech equipment and other manufactured products. Unfortunately, not one story about these findings ran in any of the Southern California news media.

In contrast, the very next day, another important event unveiled the futuristic ``Stealth Bus,'' a model of ``dual-use'' defense technology applied toward an environmentally friendly product. The Stealth Bus was in virtually every newspaper, and TV news broadcast that evening.

What a contrast in California issues! Both events centered on high value-added manufacturing jobs, yet they were on opposite ends of the public interest scale. Buses have the aura of where we want to go and aerospace is a perception of where we've been. The unveiling of a ``Stealth Bus'' draws nationwide acclaim in the media - despite accounting for less than 200 California jobs, while the conference discussing the near term loss of 90,000 more aerospace jobs was simply a ``stealth event.''

It's hard for me to believe that people aren't concerned about what lies ahead for aerospace, traditionally Southern California's primary engine of economic growth and a driver of our region's research and development prowess. California's dwindling share of defense aerospace jobs placed this strategic technology base in jeopardy. According to RAND, fully 64 percent of the highly skilled workers who lost their aerospace jobs are no longer employed in California. Imagine, more than 120,000 engineers, machinist and manufacturers are not available to transfer their expertise to emerging technologies and products. This is nothing less than a severe strategic ``brain drain'' from our work force and subcontractor base.

While it is exciting to see transitions to commercial products in transportation, medical and entertainment, it is vital that California retain a large share of remaining defense-aerospace contracts. A diversified marketplace that includes aerospace creates a more healthy and competitive manufacturing base. At our aerospace conference, Gov. Wilson noted it is critical for advocates and adversaries to realize that these jobs are a part of our economic strength. I agree, whether it's Stealth Bomber's or Stealth Buses, we've got to fight to retain our manufacturing base.

Experts at our conference clearly identified a short term solution - extend existing aerospace programs like the B-2 and C-17. This advice hits the marks because it preserves our critical skills in areas such as research and development, systems integration and program management that are fundamental to California's competitiveness. It also provides ``state of the art'' defense systems to globally protect our national interests.

Commercial applications like buses are great, but remember, the technology to develop the Stealth Bus came from aerospace. We must not turn our back on these jobs.