ADVISORY/Tracking Unemployment Duration.

Business Editors

ADVISORY...for Monday (Nov. 18)

--(BUSINESS WIRE)

    WHAT: Recent Trends in Unemployment Duration

    Reliable measures of unemployment indicate that although
    unemployment duration increased more than expected in recent
    months, it has not been especially long during the recent economic
    downturn. Underlying this may be the improved labor market
    conditions of the 1990s expansion, which acted to offset a
    long-term trend toward rising duration of unemployment.

    WHO: Rob Valletta, Research Advisor
    Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

    WHEN: Available on the Internet -
    Monday, November 18, 2002 at 9:00 AM PST:
    www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2002/el2002-35.html

    WHY: The recession that began in early 2001 probably has ended.
    Unemployment, however, remains a problem. Between late 2000 and
    early 2002, the national unemployment rate increased from 3.9% to
    about 6%; this represents about 2.8 million additional individuals
    looking for work. Persistent labor market weakness implies that
    the amount of time spent unemployed (unemployment duration) is
    likely to increase, which in turn has important implications for
    household well-being.

    Business reporters researching unemployment trends and seeking
    neutral, third-party input to bring perspective to their stories
    may wish to contact Research Advisor Rob Valletta directly at
    [phone] [e-mail].