ADVISORY/Ernst & Young Retail Analysts Predict Modest Growth and Price Deflation in 2003.

Business and Retail Reporters, Editors and Writers

ADVISORY...

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 19, 2002

WHAT:   In its annual retail forecast, Ernst & Young LLP expects that
        US retail sales will grow two to four percent in 2003. The
        struggling US economic recovery and high consumer debt loads
        will moderate consumer spending. Price deflation - which in
        the US is based primarily on high productivity growth, not a
        reduction in consumer demand - also will be a key factor in
        2003. The need to improve supply chain efficiencies will take
        on even greater importance in this deflationary environment.

        According to Jay McIntosh and Pam Stubing, two of Ernst &
        Young's leading retail industry analysts, "With unemployment
        rising and consumer debt at a very high level, consumers will
        be more reluctant to spend in 2003. However, price reductions
        in many merchandise categories will keep consumers spending
        enough to drive a small increase in retail sales."

        Some topics McIntosh and Stubing can discuss:

        --  Who will be the big winners and losers

        --  How the retail landscape will change

        --  What retailers can do to recoup losses

        --  Which merchandise will escape markdown pressure

        --  Why retailers are developing alliances with consumer
            products companies and other retailers

        --  Which retail segments will be open to acquisitions

        --  How malls will fare in the face of declining visitors

WHO:    Jay McIntosh is the Americas Director of Ernst & Young's
        Retail and Consumer Products Industry Group. He is responsible
        for developing and overseeing the group's strategy, sales,
        marketing, thought leadership and relationships with many of
        the largest and best-known retail and consumer product
        companies throughout the Americas.

        Pamela Stubing, retail industry analyst, has researched and
        analyzed the retail and consumer products industry for 25
        years. For 20 years, she was an analyst with Moody's Investors
        Service responsible for compiling its annual retail survey.