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ADVANCE ECONOMIC BAROMETER NOW IN A RISING PATTERN

 DETROIT, Oct. 18 /PRNewswire/ -- The Advance Economic Barometer compiled by Comerica Bank registered a third consecutive monthly increase in September, reaching a level of 3.4 compared with 3.2 in August. The Advance Economic Barometer is a monthly forecast of national business activity six months into the future.
 "September's gain was significant because it was the highest level of the Barometer in seven months and confirms the likelihood of real Gross Domestic Product growth in excess of 3 percent for the nation early next year," said David L. Littmann, first vice president and senior economist at Comerica Bank. In contrast, real GDP growth rates in the U.S. averaged only 1.3 percent during the first half of 1993.
 Littmann said he believes the third quarter movement of the Advance Economic Barometer has been especially revealing of future economic strength because they have come despite contracting yield curve spreads, which are narrowing gaps between long- and short-term interest rates. "What this means is that previous stimulation by the Central Bank is now translating into better housing and auto sales numbers, and generally rising real orders and sales," Littmann said.
 Implication for Michigan
 September's gain in the national Advance Economic Barometer foreshadows further pickup in Michigan's economy for next year. Littmann noted that previous releases on the Barometer had pointed to a slowdown in Michigan's economy during the second half of 1993.
 The Advance Economic Barometer combines three series into a single, balanced and comprehensive leading indicator: inflation- adjusted money growth, yield curve spread, and the Commerce Department's Index of Leading Indicators.
 -0- 10/18/93
 /CONTACT: David L. Littmann, first vice president and senior economist of Comerica Bank, 313-222-4568/
 (CMA)


CO: Comerica Bank ST: Michigan IN: FIN SU: ECO

TO -- DE031 -- 3501 10/18/93 15:16 EDT
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Publication:PR Newswire
Date:Oct 18, 1993
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