ABI Research Revises Set-Top Box Shipments Forecasts in Response to Quiet DBS Business Model Shift.

OYSTER BAY, N.Y. -- Direct Broadcast Satellite providers have traditionally left their customers' purchases of the required set-top box to the open retail environment. But in a quiet change of tack, some have begun introducing STB lease or buyback schemes reminiscent of cable operators' arrangements. This trend has led ABI Research to revise its STB shipment forecasts for the immediate future.

"ABI Research's forecasts for STB shipments have been revised to reflect the new trend towards 'recycling' satellite service STBs," notes principal analyst Michael Arden. "Our current figures anticipate STB shipments of just 46.11 million in 2006, as opposed to 2005's figure of 50.78 million."

By 2011, however, the forecasts are more bullish, showing a recovery to 53.72 million units. Much of that growth, says Arden, will come from shipments in Asia, Western Europe and the Middle East, and will be due to subscriber growth as well as upgrades of existing STBs in the home, in order to support advanced video services.

Some DBS providers are positive about the numbers of STBs they expect to recycle, citing hoped-for exchange rates of 80% or more. ABI Research believes such estimates are optimistic, however, and proposes that the average STB recycle rate will typically be closer to 30% to 40%.

"Worldwide Set-Top Box Markets: CATV, DBS, IP, DTT" (http://www.abiresearch.com/products/market_research/STB) examines deployments of CPE, pricing, and market value, as well as related STB middleware and STB decoders. Topical discussions in the report include an overview of the emergence of hybrid STB solutions, the adoption of MPEG-4, the changing vendor landscape resulting from mergers and acquisitions, and analysis of operator-vendor relationships. The study also contains SWOT analyses of leading vendors in each of the four video STB platforms.

The study forms part of three ABI Research Services, Home Networking, IP Networking, and IP Video, which include research reports, regular Research Briefs, forecast and industry databases, ABI Insights, and analyst inquiry support.

Founded in 1990 and headquartered in New York, ABI Research maintains global operations supporting annual research programs, intelligence services and market reports in broadband and multimedia, RFID and M2M, wireless connectivity, mobile wireless, transportation and emerging technologies. For information visit www.abiresearch.com, or call +1.516.624.2500.