ABI Research Analyzes the Adoption of an 802.11n Draft Proposal.

OYSTER BAY, N.Y. -- A significant step towards an IEEE 802.11n Wireless LAN standard was reached this month. The Enhanced Wireless Consortium (EWC) and the TGn Joint Proposal group (JP) agreed to submit a unified draft proposal to the TGn Task Group for balloting.

The history behind this -- for those not already familiar -- involves rival industry factions and proposals (TGn Sync and WWiSE, later the TGn Joint Proposal group), a plucky upstart vendor (Airgo), and a controversial counterproposal from a powerful breakaway group (EWC).

Observers feared a breakdown of the process, but soon came the news that the EWC's proposal was close enough to the TGn Joint Proposal that differences could be resolved. The fruit of that effort was the adoption this month of a draft IEEE standard, paving the way for eventual interoperability testing by the Wi-Fi Alliance.

According to ABI Research senior analyst of wireless connectivity research Sam Lucero, "The process is now on track for ratification of an 802.11n standard in the first quarter of 2007 or even the final quarter of 2006."

Where does that leave Airgo? "Equipment vendors tell us they feel that Airgo is in a strong competitive position," says Lucero. "It's true that it is a relatively small player in an industry where volume is a critical competitive factor; but it has three generations of chips out there, it has critical relationships with equipment vendors, and it has significant intellectual property."

Airgo supports the draft proposal, although the MIMO feature in new equipment using "draft-compliant" chips will not be backwards-compatible with its earlier products.

ABI Research's advice to vendors and customers is to expect draft-compliant equipment as early as the first quarter of 2006, but more likely in the second quarter.

"Silicon vendors claim that their draft-compliant chips will be firmware-upgradeable to the eventual ratified standard," notes Lucero. "Initially this will mostly be consumer-oriented equipment; we believe that enterprise IT managers will not purchase equipment until the standard is actually ratified."

ABI Research has released a Market Update, "IEEE Finally Gets An 802.11n Draft Standard", which evaluates the standards process, the impact of pre-standard solutions, the role an eventual 802.11n standard will play in the market, and future prospects for shipments of products based on an 802.11n standard. It is available through the subscription Wi-Fi Research Service.

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