A.V. MARKET DIPS FOR NEW TRACT HOMES\Analysts predict rebound in '96.

Byline: Jim Skeen Daily News Staff Writer

Sales of new tract homes in the Antelope Valley were off 24 percent over the past 12 months compared to the same time period a year ago, but the market may be showing signs it's ready to recover, real estate analysts said Wednesday.

Subdivision builders sold 1,355 new homes from mid-February 1995 through the middle of this month, a drop of 438 homes.

However, one good sign is that the size of decreased sales has been shrinking, going from a 32 percent difference between summer 1994 and summer 1995 sales to a 1.4 percent decrease in winter sales, according to The Meyers Group, a Los Angeles real estate tracking firm.

There were 289 new homes sold during the past three months, down slightly from the 293 homes sold during the same period last year.

"The Antelope Valley housing market is still feeling the effects of a slow market throughout California, and the lack of confidence in the economy is driving buyers to be noncommittal and uncertain in purchasing a new home," a Meyers Group analysis said. "Unfortunately, 1995 will probably be one of the worst years on record for new home sales in the Antelope Valley."

Despite the gloomy numbers, a Meyers Group analyst anticipated that the market will begin to turn around. Contributing factors will include an improved economy, declining competition from foreclosed homes, and the potential for Los Angeles County to be a leader in new job creation.

"We expect Antelope Valley sales to stabilize," said analyst Bob Bray.

Foreclosures, cited as a major contributor to declining new home sales, have started to slow down in the Antelope Valley. Antelope Valley foreclosures dropped 1.2 percent in 1995 from the year before, ending a four-year streak of record foreclosures.

There were 3,031 foreclosures in the Antelope Valley in 1995 with a combined value of $330.8 million, compared to 3,068 foreclosures totaling $480.8 million in 1994, according to statistics from TRW REDI Property Data, a nationwide real estate tracking firm based in Yorba Linda.