A turning point. (Immigration--Why?).

The average age of Canadians has been gettingsteadily older for several decades; this has a profound impact on the making of social policy, including that governing immigration.

Demographics is the study of the "statistics of births, deaths, disease, etc., as illustrating conditions of life in communities." So says The Concise Oxford Dictionary. The folks who study these numbers are called demographers, and they are giving us some very interesting insights into Canada's future.

Because of the changes in Canada's population, the country is heading for a sharp decline in its standard of living. How so? The demographics explain it all.

Every ten years, Canada holds a national census. This is an accurate count of how many of us there are, our ages, sex, marital status, and other characteristics. Halfway between each national census, there is a partial census. This head count has been going on since 1851, and the most recent major census was taken in 2001.

By comparing the results of one census with those of another, demographers can plot trends and tell us a lot about what lies ahead. The 2001 census reveals that:

* The median age for Canadians is at an all-time high of 37.6 years, that's up 2.3 years from the 1996;

* There are more Canadians 65 years and older than ever before, and they represent 13% of the country's population;

* The number of people over 80 has increased a whopping 41% during the last decade; there are now close to a million in this elderly group;

* At the same time, there has been a sharp drop in the number of children age four and under. There are now 1.7 million of these ankle-biters, a drop of 11% since a decade ago;

* The median age of Canadians living in rural areas and small towns is one-and-a-half years higher than in large urban centres;

* For every 100 women aged 65 and older there are 75 men.

That's some of the raw data, but what do they mean? Some answers are obvious. If the number of children in our society falls then we'll need fewer schools and fewer teachers. If there are more seniors it means we'll have to build more retirement homes and hire staff to run them.

Other answers are less obvious. For example, an aging society, such as Canada's, will see its health care costs rise but there will be less money available to pay the bills.

Our bodies aren't designed to last forever, so, as we get older, parts start to wear out. Hips and knees can be replaced by metal and plastic joints. When kidneys go offline people can be kept alive by having their blood cleansed frequently by something called a dialysis machine. Failing eyesight often can be corrected by cataract operations. Cancer and heart disease are maladies that mostly come with age and usually require intensive medical attention.

All of these treatments cost money and, in Canada, they are paid for through taxes. Older people, however, live on pensions, which are usually lower than the incomes of younger, working people. Someone with a low income pays little in taxes.

So, we've got more old folks placing heavy demands on health care and other services but paying little towards the cost. Someone has to make up the difference, and that's going to be the younger Canadians who are in the work force. But, the demographics tells us there are fewer people in this age bracket than there used to be, so the higher tax burden will have to be carried by a smaller number.

Who are the members of this unlucky group? Mostly, they are the people currently in junior high school, high school, postsecondary institutions, and the beginning years of their working lives. To maintain standards of health care, government has no alternative but to increase its tax revenue. That means taking a larger tax slice, out of the incomes of the people in the work force leading to a reduced standard of living.

Already, in the fall of 2002, the idea of a new federal tax dedicated to health care has been floated around Ottawa. The federal government has denied there are plans for such a tax, prompting observers to quote an old rule of politics that: "Nothing is true until it has been officially denied." Whether a new tax is brought in or not doesn't matter. Money will have to be raised to pay for the care of Canada's growing numbers of elderly people.

Don't despair though; there are ways out of this demographic crunch.

Canadians will have to start having many more babies, or Canada must encourage more young immigrants to settle here. The first option looks like a nonstarter. The demographic trend for more than half a century is for Canadian families to become smaller. The average size of Canadian families decreased from 3.9 people in 1961 to 3.0 in 1999. This trend shows absolutely no sign of changing. That leaves the immigration option as the most likely way out.

Increasing the number of young immigrants accepted into the country can reverse the aging trend. Immigrants tend to have larger families than citizens born in Canada, again lowering the median age level. This complicated equation is already at work in Ontario. Canada's most populous province saw its median age rise by the smallest amount between 1991 and 2001; the reason being that Ontario is where the majority of immigrants settle.

SUGGESTED ACTIVITIES:

1. Use some of the figures presented in this article to create graphic representations of the changing nature of Canada's population.

2. Based on the changing demographics of Canada's society, dram up lists of goods, services, recreation activities, etc., for which there mill be a greater demand over the next 25 years. Do the same fir things for which there mill be less demand.

Canada's total population grew by just 4%
between 1996 and 2001, and, for the first
time since 1945, most of that growth came from
immigration. For the first time in many years,
the population of the United States grew faster
than Canada's (5.4% over the same period).
Meanwhile, Mexico's population grew twice as fast
as Canada's. Japan, Italy, and Germany have
populations with a median age significantly higher
than Canada's. The median age in the United Kingdom,
France, and Canada is almost identical. It's been
estimated that the median age of Canada's population
will be 41.0 years in 2011.

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

The median age is the point at which half the population is older and half is younger.

In 1961, 16% of Canadian families were made up of six or more people, compared with only 5% in 1999.

THE BULGE 

Demographers work in a world of few surprises; but, sometimes they are thrown off balance by totally unpredictable events. Very few people foresaw the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Second World War (1939-45). But, both these catastrophes had a profound impact on demographics and we're feeling the after-effects today.

The economic hardships of the Great Depression caused huge numbers of people to delay marriage and to put off having children. Canada's birthrate dropped, as it did in most Western, industrialized nations. The birthrate picked up a little as economic conditions improved during World War II. At the end of the conflict, tens of thousands of soldiers came home and Nature took its course.

There were 253,000 births in Canada in 1940. By 1960, this had risen to 479,000. The birthrate then started to decline. The period from the late 1940s to 1965 is referred to as the Baby Boom. During this spell 1.57 million more babies were born than would otherwise have been the case. The first of these Boomers are now beginning to retire and the impact of this and their aging is starting to change our society dramatically.

GO EAST OLD MAN

With a notable exception, Canada's population tends to grow older from west to east. The odd province out in this trend is British Columbia, where the median age is 38.4--almost one year higher than the national average. The numbers are skewed on the West Coast because of the high number of Canadians who retire there to enjoy the milder climate. But, from Alberta east the aging trend follows a fairly steady pattern. The median age of Albertans is 35.0, the youngest in Canada. The Calgary-to-Edmonton corridor, which is enjoying an economic boom, is attracting younger Canadians from other provinces. Between 1996 and 2001, the population in that area grew by 12.3%, more than three times the national average. More people now live in the Calgary-to-Edmonton corridor than in the four Atlantic Provinces combined.

Nova Scotia and Quebec tie as the provinces with the highest median age--38.8.

A phenomenally high birthrate and lower life expectancy makes Nunavut something of a statistical quirk; the median age in the territory is just 22.1.

Websites

The Aging, Health and
Society Network--http://
www.socsci.mcmaster.ca/
~geros/index.html

Statistics Canada--http://
www.statcan.ca/start.html