A sign of stagnation.

Byline: The Register-Guard

Enrollment in Oregon's universities is flat this year, which really means it's falling - smaller percentages of the state's population and its high school graduates are pursuing a higher education. This should sound an alarm in Salem, where for a decade and a half lawmakers have asked the Oregon University System to make up for declining state support by increasing tuition.

As long as enrollments kept growing, it has been possible for many legislators to ignore the effects of high tuition on students and their families. The economic value of a college education is so great that some felt justified in shifting the cost to students. Steadily increasing enrollments were taken as proof that Oregon universities had not priced their product too high. Those who found it possible to disregard rising dependence on out-of-state tuition, students' staggering debt loads and lowest-in-the-nation faculty salaries were able to persuade themselves that Oregon universities could adapt to a starvation diet.

But this year, more customers aren't coming. Indeed, an actual decline in undergraduate enrollment is masked by a slight increase in the number of graduate students. Fewer freshmen from Oregon are entering Oregon universities, whereas the number ought to grow by about 2 percent a year to keep pace with the number of high school graduates. It needs to grow even faster if Oregon intends to be a high-income state, because high-income jobs demand a college education.

More young Oregonians are choosing to attend out-of-state universities, because the state's high-tuition policy has narrowed the price differential that once strongly favored OUS institutions. Most who leave the state don't come back. Others are simply not pursuing a higher education - with tuition having increased 47 percent in the last five years, many believe they can't afford college. Oregonians ages 45 to 54 are now more likely to have college degrees than those ages 25 to 34. Ten years ago, the chance that a 19-year-old in Oregon would enroll in college was 40 percent. Now, it's 33 percent.

According to the OUS, people with college degrees can expect to earn 78 percent more over their lifetimes than those with a high school diploma. The economic reward is so great that until now, students have continued to enroll despite the higher costs. But students aren't the only ones who benefit; the state also has a stake in higher education.

College graduates repay in taxes the amount of state support they receive for their educations. They require fewer social services, and are more likely to start businesses and contribute to their communities. Higher education is not an expense, it's an investment - for students and society alike.

The state has scaled back its investment to such a degree that the number of students willing to take up the slack has leveled off. The pool of educated people on whom Oregon's civic and economic future depends should be growing. The fact that it's not should be a matter of urgent concern in the 2007 legislative session.

The policy of neglecting Oregon's universities and expecting students to shoulder an increasing portion of the cost of their educations has always been shortsighted. Now it has reached even its short-term limit.