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A portfolio of pure profit: Drake Craig's search for companies with spic-and-span earnings yielded great results.


For Drake J. Craig principal of ALIC ALIC Advanced Learning Infrastructure Consortium
ALIC Arid Lands Information Center
ALIC Allstate Life Insurance Company
ALIC Aircraft Launcher Interface Computer
ALIC Asset Limited, Income Constrained
 Investment Advisors in Atlanta, the economic recovery came at just the right time. "We're definitely in an economic recovery and the market is reflecting it," says the University of North Carolina business school graduate who is part of a team that manages more than $55 million for his firm.

While the exclusive portfolio of stocks Craig selected for BLACK ENTERPRISE last year fared as he expected, he boasts that his emphasis on what he calls pure earnings--when a company derives 80% of its profits from business operations as opposed to write-offs or cutbacks--could have produced even better results. "I did not expect the market to recover as well as it has," says Craig, explaining that although his selections grew 34.02% over the 52-week period from March 5, 2003, to March 3, 2004, he felt he could have done better. "For this portfolio, I did not choose the most aggressive names, just good fundamental stocks. And they are all good for diversification."

Craig says that most of the stocks he chose reached the targets he set for them. "I have sold them in our portfolios, but these are not panic-sell positions. The stocks reached our target, however, a few still have room to grow."

One of the stocks he believes has room to grow is Harley-Davidson (NYSE NYSE

See: New York Stock Exchange
: HDI HDI Human Development Index (UNDP yardstick of human welfare)
HDI Help Desk Institute
HDI Humpty Dumpty Institute (New York, New York)
HDI High Density Interconnect
), the $4.1 billion motorcycle manufacturer. The stock rewarded investors last year with a 45.08% yield, moving from $36.87 to $53.49. Craig expects the company to "continue to have strong fundamentals and to reach $60 by the summer." His reasoning? "As the economy continues to pick up, consumers will buy cars, motorcycles, and other luxury items."

Shares of Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE FRE French
FRE Freddie Mac (stock symbol)
FRE Federal Rules of Evidence
FRE Freedom Realty Exchange
FRE Freedom Party
FRE Food and Resource Economics
FRE Free Range Eggs
FRE French Real Estate
), the government-sponsored mortgage company nicknamed Uncle Sam's nephew, rose 14.01%, going from $54.05 to $61.62. Craig says Freddie Mac is "a hold, maybe a buy." He predicts: "I can see it at $73 or $74." Since homeownership is the American dream, he says, the continued demand for mortgage products should make this stock a winning holding for the future.

Craig cautions investors who still hold Apollo Group (Nasdaq: APOL APOL Asia Pacific Online
APOL Alternate Person on Line
), the continuing education firm that owns the University of Phoenix online program and that offers other online courses. "I wouldn't overstay Overstay

The act of holding an investment for too long. It often occurs when traders attempt to time the market by identifying the end of a price trend and the beginning of a new one, but, due to greed and fear, tend to overstay their positions.
 my welcome here," says Craig. Although Apollo Group has done very well, blasting up 70.36% from $45.68 to $77.82, Craig thinks the ride is just, about over. "Maybe $85 is a reasonable target, but I'd advise readers to take the profit," he says.

On the other hand, Craig says affiliated Computer Services Affiliated Computer Services (ACS) (NYSE: ACS) is a Fortune 500 company that provides information technology outsourcing as well as business process outsourcing solutions to businesses, government agencies, and non-profit organizations.  (NYSE: ACS (Asynchronous Communications Server) See network access server. ), the Dallas-based business and information technology outsourcing Information Technology Outsoucing or ITO is a company's outsourcing of computer or Internet related work, such as programming, to other companies. It is used in refence to Business Process Outsourcing or BPO, which is the outsourcing of the work that does not require so much  services firm, "still has an attractive upside." He admits that some investors might find e-business, network management, and information security boring, but he maintains that the stock demands your full, undivided attention. Up 13.35% since his recommendation, the stock went from $44.19 to $50.09, and Craig predicts that this mundane moneymaker could move up as high as $57 a share.

And Craig says that his final selection, Fair Isaac Corp. (NYSE: FIC FIC First International Computer
FIC Fogarty International Center (John E. Fogarty International Center for Advanced Study in the Health Sciences; National Institutes of Health)
FIC Fellowship for Intentional Community
), the San Rafael-based consumer credit scoring firm, can surpass Wall Street's expectations. Because businesses increased its appetite for purchasing consumer credit information, Fair Isaac experienced a share price increase of 26.69%, going from $47.58 to $60.28. "This is a strong holding," says Craig. "It's not aggressive, it's sensible. It can make it to $65."

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Title Annotation:Stock Update
Author:Reynolds, Rhonda
Publication:Black Enterprise
Geographic Code:1USA
Date:May 1, 2004
Words:581
Previous Article:Analysis equals performance: Charles Payne of Wall Street Strategies uses three critical measures to select winners.(Private Screening)
Next Article:Be a stock detective: Lewis Eakins recommends investigating a company's health before you invest.(Proactive Investor)
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