A jobs spurt at last.

Byline: The Register-Guard

Unemployment in Lane County and Oregon dropped nearly a full percentage point last month, a dramatic move in the right direction. More telling than the jobless rate, which can move up or down as people start or stop looking for work, is the absolute number of jobs. Here, too, the numbers are encouraging, suggesting that Oregon's three-year economic slide is ending.

Lane County reported a 6.6 percent unemployment rate in April, down from 7.5 percent in March. The statewide jobless rate was 6.7 percent in April, down from 7.6 percent the month before. Lane County's unemployment rate is now slightly below the statewide average. A number of counties, including Douglas, put double-digit unemployment behind them last month. After having the nation's highest or second-highest unemployment rate for three years, Oregon slipped into third place in April, behind Alaska and South Carolina.

But the real story is in the number of jobs. Employment in Oregon peaked in late 2,000, with 1.62 million Oregonians holding jobs. Employment then began a long slide, with the state losing 65,000 jobs by the middle of 2003. That's a 4 percent decline - and while the number of jobs dropped, the number of people in the labor market continued to grow. The number of jobs began growing a year ago, with the largest additions occurring since early this year.

The Oregon Center for Public Policy, a left-leaning think tank based in Silverton, estimates it will take another 14 months for employment in Oregon to surpass the peak it reached in 2000. It will take even longer for the growing job market to absorb all the new workers who have joined the working-age population.

The center's analysts are also worried about the quality of jobs being created: The jobs that have been lost tend to pay more and offer more comprehensive benefits than the jobs that have been added. In Lane County, however, the strongest job growth in the past year has come in areas such as construction, wood products manufacturing and recreational vehicle assembly that pay well and ultimately support additional jobs in the service sector and in government.

Oregon's three-year employment decline helps explain why the state's budget problems have been so severe - in a state that depends primarily on revenue from the personal income tax, the number of people working and paying taxes is still below 2000 levels. The state's economic fortunes will improve with an expanding job market, particularly in relatively high-wage manufacturing industries, bringing a long-awaited end to a painful period of contraction.

Not surprisingly, politicians are rushing to put their spin on the employment statistics. President Bush, who has seen two consecutive months of robust job creation nationwide, points to the figures as proof that his tax cuts are having the desired stimulative effect. John Kerry points out that 35 states, including Oregon, still have fewer jobs than when Bush took office.

Yet the slide in employment, in Oregon and elsewhere, had its origins in forces more powerful than those at the president's command. It began after a period of economic expansion of unprecedented duration. The inevitable slowdown was aggravated by the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and the collapse of speculative frenzy in the Internet and telecommunications industries. It takes time for employers to recover from such events, and it takes even longer to regain the confidence that must underlie decisions to add workers. That confidence shows strong signs of returning at last.