A grain of salt, please.

Venezuela's economy has fallen so far that it can only grow in 2004, say analysts. The LATIN TRADE Consensus Forecast, which relies on Wall Street and major banks, puts growth next year at 6.3%. But much can depend on political developments--and whom you ask.

Over the past two years, the economy has shrunk, in large part in reaction to the controversial presidency of Hugo Chavez. "In two years, 20% of the economic productivity has been destroyed," says Miguel Santos, an economist with the Venezuelan-American Chamber of Commerce in Caracas. But, Santos says, "recovering from that is not so difficult."

Santos sees 5% or 6% growth, despite Chavez's erratic handling of the economy and a massive oil strike in early 2002. Antonio Frances, a professor of business strategy at the Institute of Administration Studies, however, expects growth of between 3% and 5% in 2004.

Frances says any new government--should a referendum be held on Chavez's rule--will have trouble. Low tax revenues will prevent the country from spending its way out of recession, he says.

The government, meanwhile, forecasts 3.5% growth, and 13% growth in the oil sector, predictions some local economists call too rosy, given falling tax revenues and reported neglect of the state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela's properties.

"This is one of the most difficult moments for making predictions," says Frances.