A fragile time.

The Conservative government led by Stephen Harper is a very fragile affair. Depending on how things are managed, the Tories may not survive the next budget debate. However long it lasts, this government will be a challenge to everyone with an interest in social policy.

The Harper government is not Canada's first conservative government but it is the one most committed to a predetermined set of goals that we have ever had. Harper's Conservative predecessors wanted to slow things down, to make changes modestly and pragmatically.

Stephen Harper has much firmer views on economics and social policy than his predecessors. He believes in a limited role for the federal government in almost all areas. Unlike previous Conservative Prime Ministers, he is looking for ways to dismantle or weaken the federal role in social policy and program structure that has been created over the past 80 years.

Harper has strong convictions that social problems are best dealt with by individuals, families, community organizations and private enterprise. The essential role of any government is to encourage such efforts. Where federal intervention is needed or expected, it is preferable to pay individuals and families to find the services they want or need, or to provide tax incentives to private enterprise and charitable donors.

His approach is demonstrated in his proposals to replace the National Child Care Initiative with his, Choice in Child Care proposal. This will take the federal government out of direct funding for early child education and child care services and will pay the money directly to parents to use to purchase any type of child care services they see fit. Harper's plan will try to encourage child care services through tax incentives for employers creating these services and for people making charitable donations for this purpose.

How will the Harper government deal with issues such as homelessness, poverty, social assistance, immigrant settlement, crime at-risk youth? It is certain that over time, he will transfer these functions to the provinces. He will again offer tax concessions to such enterprises that deal with these problems and tax incentives for charitable donations to these services.

Health care will be relatively unchanged for the time being because it is a politically explosive issue. The vast majority of Canadians see it as a "Canadian value" and will not tolerate major changes. Commitments made by the previous Liberal government will remain intact. However, if the Harper government manages to get re-elected, it will change the federal role in the health system, shifting more of the cost to the provinces, eventually taking Ottawa out of it altogether, virtually erasing the Canada Health Act as we know it.

By lowering federal taxes, they are counting on provincial governments to raise their rates or use natural resource revenues to deal with social programs. However, the ability of provinces to tax and spend are not equal to that of the government and the conservatives will have to come up with a new equalization formula.

The Conservative minority government now ruling in Ottawa may not last long, but its impact will be felt long-term. Stephen Harper knows where he wants to go and will force us to rethink our established ideas. Do we, who are interested in social policy, have as clear an idea where we want go? How do we respond to the Harper challenge?