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A bumpy - but profitable - ride to 2000.


Market investors would be wise to take note of Bette Davis' advice in the movie "All About Eve All About Eve is a 1950 drama film, written and directed by Joseph L. Mankiewicz, based on the short story "The Wisdom of Eve", by Mary Orr. It features Bette Davis, Anne Baxter, George Sanders, Thelma Ritter, Hugh Marlowe, Celeste Holm, Gary Merrill and Marilyn Monroe. " as they ponder their prospects for the remainder of the decade: "Fasten your seat-belts," she said. It's going be a bumpy ride.

Bumpy, maybe - but still positive, especially for the rest of 1996. Why? An economic soft landing, baby boomers See generation X.  entering their peak savings years, and a nation readying to elect a president all will play significant roles in how the stock market fares.

The Fed has provided fuel for optimism for the rest of this year, first by boosting rates two years ago to cool the economy, then recently lowering rates to prevent an economic downturn. Heartened by the slow but sustainable rate in economic growth it triggered, the Fed will lower rates later this year. Expect long-term interest rates to dip this year to the 1993 low of 5.8 percent.

Gradually falling interest rates bode well for baby boomers looking to invest assets that are accumulating as retirement draws nearer. The infusion of liquidity, in turn, provides a favorable investment backdrop for market investors.

Historical stats from previous election years can be telling. Since 1952, the last seven months of a presidential election year have been up for the market as presidents try to sway the economy to better their chances of re-election or help their party retain the White House. Since 1832, two-thirds of the 41 election years have proved positive for the market. In the last half century, the market has shown an average gain of 11.4 percent in 10 of the 12 presidential election years.

Prospects are equally rosy if one looks at 10-year cycles. Since 1832, whenever the fifth year of the decade preceded a presidential election and the market gained double digits Double Digits was a pricing game on the American television game show, The Price Is Right. Played from April 20, 1973 through May 18, 1973's show, it was played for a car and used small prizes. , as it did in 1995, the sixth year of the decade has been an up year for the market. And, since 1886, the market has risen eight times and declined three times in the decade's sixth year.

Cyclical history also requires looking ahead to 1997. Conversely, the market has risen only three times and fallen eight times in the decade's seventh year since 1887. A study by the Center for International Cycle Research at Columbia University Columbia University, mainly in New York City; founded 1754 as King's College by grant of King George II; first college in New York City, fifth oldest in the United States; one of the eight Ivy League institutions.  bears that out. Since 1919, the center reports, business expansions usually last three years. The current expansion started in April 1994, so it may lose steam in early 1997.

For 1996, the weak link in the economy is consumer spending Consumer demand or consumption is also known as personal consumption expenditure. It is the largest part of aggregate demand or effective demand at the macroeconomic level. . High levels of consumer debt coupled with the lack of significant wage increases deter spending. These factors support inflation remaining in the 2 percent to 3 percent range for 1996.

This year, market growth will come from individual investors, foreign investors moving money into U.S.-based equity investments now that the dollar has stabilized, and corporate mergers and acquisitions. For the long term, corporate restructuring, increased productivity from technological advances, and stock buyback Stock buyback

A corporation's purchase of its own outstanding stock, usually in order to raise the company's earnings per share.


stock buyback

See buyback.
 programs provide a bright future for the market.

Some stocks with attractive investment opportunity for 1996 include:

* American Brands (NYSE/AMB, around $46). American Brands is a global manufacturer of consumer products in four key areas: tobacco, spirits, hardware, and golf and leisure products. With operations generating over $1 billion per year in cash flow, AMB AMB Ambient
AMB Ambassador
AMB Amber
AMB Ambulance
AMB Associação Médica Brasileira (Brazil)
AMB Ambulatory
AMB Advanced Memory Buffer (FBDIMM control unit on DRAM) 
 continues to be aggressive in share repurchase Share Repurchase

A program by which a company buys back its own shares from the marketplace, reducing the number of outstanding shares. This is usually an indication that the company's management thinks the shares are undervalued.
 programs, which have reduced the number of shares outstanding by 25 million over the last year. AMB recently completed the acquisition of Cobra Golf, which complements its Titleist line of golf equipment.

* American Precision Industries (NYSE/APR, around $12). American Precision industries manufactures and distributes heat transfer equipment, motion-control devices, and electronic components. CEO (1) (Chief Executive Officer) The highest individual in command of an organization. Typically the president of the company, the CEO reports to the Chairman of the Board.  Kurt Wiedenhaupt has transformed APR APR

See: Annual Percentage Rate
 into a global corporation. Revenue now comes from Europe and Asia to garner an increasing share of the worldwide capital spending capital spending

Spending for long-term assets such as factories, equipment, machinery, and buildings that permits the production of more goods and services in future years.
 spree. In September 1995, American Precision was named to World Trade magazine's list of the top 100 Fast-Growing High-Tach Manufacturers in America. Through the end of 1995, earnings per share gained 38 percent over 1994, with new-order backlogs at more than $30 million.

* Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE/FNM, around $33). Fannie Mae Fannie Mae: see Federal National Mortgage Association.  has built a much less risky loan portfolio than other financial institutions by focusing its principal assets on mortgages secured by moderately priced homes, which have a much lower default rate than higher-priced homes. The current low interest rate environment also allows Fannie Mae to retire high-cost debt, while at the same time possibly doubling its fixed-rate mortgage portfolio. Stock buybacks - which could reach 9 percent of the outstanding shares - also should boost shareholder value.

* WorldCom (NASDAQ/WCOM, around $40). As the fourth largest long-distance telephone carrier and owner of a nationwide fiber-optic network, WorldCom has an increasing exposure to high-growth market sectors, putting it on track for earnings growth of 30 percent in 1996. With telephone deregulation Deregulation

The reduction or elimination of government power in a particular industry, usually enacted to create more competition within the industry.

Notes:
Traditional areas that have been deregulated are the telephone and airline industries.
, WorldCom should benefit long-term by selling long-distance service to regional bell telephone companies for out-of-region service.

David Elias is president and chief executive of Elias Asset Management, a Williamsville, NY-based investment management firm.
COPYRIGHT 1996 Chief Executive Publishing
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 1996, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

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Title Annotation:Wealth Builders; outlook for stock market investors for the rest of the 1990s
Author:Elias, David
Publication:Chief Executive (U.S.)
Date:Apr 1, 1996
Words:836
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