A Yellow Brick Road to Coney Island retail?

Punctuated by empty lots and chain-link fence, Surf Avenue is a retail galaxy light years -- if not a subway line -- displaced from Fifth Avenue.

Bric-a-brac merchants are lined up along the eastern spur of Surf Avenue. These concerns -- which resemble fly-by-night bazaars -- are anything but transient. They've operated here for the past 25 years, selling their wares out of shipping containers - one-story boxes with items spilling out of them. The Russian furniture merchants are the most legitimate retailers here, simply because they sell -- for the most part -- new merchandise.

Until now, it seems, their presence was tolerated by building inspectors.

City officials, for their part, are confident that the new $:110 million minor league ballpark, which opened Monday, can recreate this struggling seaside area.

Mayor Giuliani has made lofty statements to the effect that Keyspan Park will "serve as a catalyst in the revitalization of Coney Island," in the manner of Disney's investment on 42nd Street.

Yet detractors dismiss claims that a baseball stadium will jump-start Coney Island's economic engine, which is barely idling these days. To these skeptics, the ballpark is a seasonal boon that can only do so much for this area. And that area, by all accounts, has plenty of room for retail improvement.

The city has taken steps to evict low-rent tenants from Surf Avenue in a move that appears to be anything fortuitous.

If the future of Coney Island isn't merchandisers such as these, then what exactly is it? It's still difficult to gauge whether the ballpark will create a retail ripple effect by spilling its influence down Surf Avenue, however.

The Giuliani Administration allocated $11 million for improvements to the area, among them new playgrounds and information kiosks. Ground was recently broken for Mermaid Commons, a public/private initiative that will develop both residential and commercial projects on Mermaid Avenue. Included within this project are plans to house various retailers such as Stillwell Optical, a local business.

The mayor's reasoning has been embraced by a slew of city officials, among them EDC president Michael Carey.

Community Board 13 manager Chuck Reichenthal was quoted in a June 16 New York Times article saying "it's shape-up time," and these merchants that sell their wares out of containers are obstacles to a "spruced up" Surf Avenue.

Few are criticizing the introduction of a ballpark here; the real point of contention appears to be what that stadium can do for Coney Island. Detractors claim there is no way that a baseball stadium can turn around decades of neglect overnight. And many dismiss the notion of serious s retail out here.

"There just isn't a population base here. Without that critical mass, there is limited potential," said David Rosenberg, an executive vice president at retail leasing firm Robert K. Futterman Inc.

His point is debatable. According to CACI, a Virginia based marketing systems group, there were 63,434 people living within one mile of the Surf Avenue/Stillwell Avenue intersection in Coney Island last year.

"This area has deteriorated so much from the days when it was booming," said Rosenberg.

Beyond stating the obvious, Rosenberg -- who directs the outer-borough division at Futterman -- said that a retail renaissance will likely need more than just a ballpark.

"Just look at Yankee Stadium. You don't really have much retail there. The baseball stadium is a step. But is it a savior? I don't so," said Rosenberg.

One residential developer has doubts about the stadium's effect on the area.

"Sure, it will be a big boost to the existing businesses. But it is not reasonable to expect that the stadium by itself can change the area completely," said R. Randy Lee, CEO of Leewood Real Estate. His firm has built more than 1,000 residential units on Coney Island.

Astella Development, a community based nonprofit, has been working to revitalize Coney Island's commercial and residential properties since 1975. Much of their retail work has been focused on Mermaid Avenue, the main thoroughfare running east-west across Coney Island.

Judy Orlando, the executive director of Astella, categorized the existing retail environment at Coney Island as "mainly mom pop stores."

"What's here is upgrading, though. And we are all hoping that the ballpark will help move things along on the retail front," said Orlando.

"The Mermaid Commons project is going very well. It is quite obvious that things will change once the stadium is built," said Chuck Reichenthal, manager of Coney Island's Community Board #13.

As for the Surf Avenue retailers, Reichenthal said they are "awaiting movement" there.

"People are not as afraid of Coney Island as they used to be. It really is all about perception," said Orlando.

It is still unclear how this seaside resort can support retailers throughout the year. After all, the Coney Island businesses that thrive on the flip-flop trade are victimized by winter.

Yet some proponents of Coney Island bristle at such a "seasonal" suggestion, arguing that the community over 35,00 strong is critical mass enough to support any number of service-oriented retailers.

Seasonal or not, the Coney Island saga continues, with baseball now.