A Trap For Turks - Or USA?

Demir says: "Some people claim the PKK is doing these attacks to pull Turkey into the northern Iraq swamp, in order to harm Turkey's relationship with the US and to isolate Turkey. If you add an Armenian genocide bill onto this ongoing turmoil over the PKK attacks, it will be terrible for Turkish-American relations".

Already much of that damage is being done, though the Oct. 10 genocide vote - taken in the presence of four Armenian survivors of the World War I-era events - mirrors one passed by a wider margin in 2005 and another in 2000 which were withdrawn.

Turkish newspapers have been scathing. The mass-circulation Hurriyet on Oct. 11 called it a "bill of hatred". The daily Vatan gave this front-page headline, about those who voted for it: "27 foolish Americans".

US businessmen in Turkey have lobbied against the measure, noting how the French market share has tumbled 70% in the year since Paris passed a bill criminalising Armenian genocide denial. French exports to Turkey have fallen by $1-2 bn in the past 12 months, by one count, while the value of most other trading partners expanded.

Rep. Lantos on Oct. 10 opened the session this way: "We have to weigh the desire to express our solidarity with the Armenian people and to condemn the historic nightmare through the use of the word 'genocide', against the risk that it could cause young men and women in the uniform of the United States armed services to pay an even heavier price [in Iraq and Afghanistan] than they are currently paying". Some congressmen said the Turkish warnings of retaliation were a bluff, with one saying he felt as though a "Turkish sword" was over his head.

"We can't provide genocide denial as one of the perks of friendship with the United States", added Rep. Brad Sherman (D) of California. But others expressed shock. Rep. Burton said: "This is crazy. We're in the middle of two wars and we've got troops over there that are at risk" (see above). Rep. David Scott (D) of Georgia told the committee: "Our most reliable resource of unfettered intelligence that is helping us in the Middle East comes through Turkey. The Armenian question is plain as day: What was done to them is wrong. The issue is: What is in the best interest of the national security of the United States?"

Suat Kiniklioglu, an MP for the ruling AKP, on Oct. 12 was quoted as saying: "When we look back in 20 years we might see this as a milestone in the way Turkey and the US have drifted apart". Others say Turkey has backed itself irrevocably into a corner on the Armenian issue by refusing to engage with its critics and by silencing domestic debate.

Cengiz Aktar, an academic and commentator in Istanbul, said: "Turkey has made this a question of honour but it has no other policy. We were more flexible on this issue 20 years ago than we are today". But Kiniklioglu said: "The prime minister feels that our policy of restraint [on the PKK] has to end".

Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish lawmaker in the Iraqi parliament, on Oct. 11 condemned the Turkish military preparations. But he said the weakness of the Iraqi government was to blame for Turkey's ability to make its threat of military action. He said: "The Iraqi government has a very weak position and I believe we have offered unofficial concessions. The problem is that the American position is very weak also because they don't like the PKK". (The US and many European governments have classified the PKK as a terrorist organisation. The PKK is a known threat to significant pipelines bringing Iraqi and Caspian crude oils to the Mediterranean, which pass through eastern Turkey).

Ankara has long accused the US and the KDP/PUK alliance of providing safe haven and military support for about 3,000 PKK rebels in northern Iraq, and not doing enough to stop cross-border attacks. US commanders and Iraqi Kurdish officials say they are doing all they can to stamp out PKK activity, but their reach is limited in the remote mountains along the border.

Aliriza says the US is "caught between their tactical alliance with the Kurds in Iraq and their strategic alliance - at least what it used to be - with Turkey. The reality is that the US relies to an incredible extent on the Iraqi Kurds...and any meaningful action by the Turks would annoy the Iraqi Kurds and change the balance in Iraq against the US in this war. The worst thing that could happen, from the point of view of the [White House] is for the Turks to intervene, creating an even bigger mess in Iraq".

A big military operation by Turkey could send ripples of violence and instability into neighbouring lands like Iran and Syria, not to mention inside Turkey itself. The regional repercussions would be enormously destructive.

The situation highlights chronic vulnerabilities of a state system in which countries and their peoples do not align smoothly, and often have not done so since the modern Middle East was manufactured in Europe around 1916/20. Frail countries become more tenuous when they are attacked by world powers. Regional powers using their military force exacerbate the core problems.

Iraq-Bound US Arms In Turkish Crimes: Pentagon officials have said US weapons given to Iraqi security forces have been recovered over the past year by the authorities in Turkey after being used in violent crimes there. The discovery that serial numbers on pistols and other arms recovered in Turkey matched those distributed to Iraqi police units has prompted concern by Defence Secretary Gates that controls on weapons being provided to Iraqis are inadequate. It prompted a decision to send the Pentagon's inspector-general to Iraq in September to investigate the problem.

Pentagon officials have said they did not yet have evidence that Iraqi security forces or Kurdish officials were selling or giving the weapons to the PKK, as Turkish officials have contended. They say it is possible the weapons was stolen or lost during firefights and smuggled into Turkey after being sold on the extensive Iraqi arms black market. Officials give widely varied estimates - from dozens to hundreds - of how many US-supplied weapons were found in Turkey.

Over the past year, inquiries by US oversight agencies have found serious discrepancies in military records of where thousands of weapons intended for Iraqi security forces actually ended up. The disclosure about the weapons in Turkey, part of those investigations, came in August as the US Army announced moves aimed at addressing a widening contracting scandal which has generated 76 criminal cases involving contract fraud in Iraq, Kuwait and Afghanistan, with 20 civilians and military personnel charged in a US court as a result of the inquiries.

US Army Secretary Pete Geren on Aug. 29 told reporters: "The reports suggest we have serious issues in this area", adding that the criminal inquiries and the reported diversion of Iraqi weapons to Turkey were major reasons behind his decision to take action. Gates sent the Pentagon general counsel, William Haynes II, to Turkey in July for talks with Turkish officials, who had been complaining for months that US-supplied arms were being used in murders and other violent crimes carried out, in some cases, by PKK militants.

US officials say the weapons found in Turkey had been given to Iraqi units in 2004 and 2005 when, in the rush to build police and army units, controls on distribution of arms were much weaker. Lt Gen David Petraeus, the top US commander in Iraq who then was in charge of training and equipping Iraqi forces, says the imperative to provide weapons to Iraqi forces was more important at the time than maintaining impeccable records.

By checking serial numbers, US officials confirmed that some of the recovered weapons, which included handguns manufactured by Glock, an Austrian weapons maker, had been originally bought by the Pentagon for distribution in Iraq. At a briefing on Aug. 29, Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said Secretary Gates was "deeply troubled by the reports and allegations" about problems accounting for US-supplied weapons in Iraq.

Pentagon officials then said the problem of weapons turning up in Turkey was part of a larger investigation carried out by Pentagon Inspector-General Claude Kicklighter, a retired army lieutenant general, into how US-supplied arms had been improperly accounted for and fallen into the wrong hands. Morrell said: "General Kicklighter has informed the secretary that he will remain in-country as long as it takes to find out if record-keeping problems persist, and if so, make recommendations to the commanders on the ground how to fix those problems". US officials said they had not seen firm evidence that the arms had been found in PKK hands.

In recent months, Turkish officials have accused Kurds in senior positions in the Iraqi government, including Kurdistan President Barzani, of actively supporting the KKK. Barzani and other KRG officials say they do not support PKK attacks into Turkey.

At the Pentagon, Morrell said: "If American-issued weapons have ended up in the hands of criminals in Turkey or terrorists in Turkey, that is not based upon the policy of this department or this government".