A New Semico Research Corp. Leading Indicator, the IPI --Inflection Point Indicator-- Accurately Predicts Semiconductor Sales Trends.Business Editors & Technology Writers PHOENIX--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 8, 2002 Want to know whether semiconductor sales are going up or down six months from now? In a just-published monthly newsletter, the March Semico Tracker, Semico Research Corp. introduced a leading indicator Leading Indicator A measurable economic factor that changes before the economy starts to follow a particular pattern or trend. Leading indicators are used to predict changes in the economy, but are not always accurate. , the IPI (Intelligent Peripheral Interface) A high-speed hard disk interface used with minis and mainframes that transfers data in the 10 to 25 MBytes/sec range. IPI-2 and IPI-3 refer to differences in the command set that they execute. See hard disk. (TM) (Inflection Point Inflection Point An event that changes the way we think and act. -Andy Grove, Founder of Intel. Notes: For example, the fall of the Berlin Wall was an inflection point in global politics and the commercialization of the Internet was an inflection point in technology. Indicator), which can tell you just that. The IPI(TM) is a composite of various statistics, incorporating semiconductor sales, end-market data, and inventories, combined with a first-derivative analysis. When tested against historical data, the IPI(TM) has accurately predicted every inflection point in total semiconductor sales for the past 25 years. And, according to according to prep. 1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians. 2. In keeping with: according to instructions. 3. the IPI(TM), total semiconductor sales actually began a recovery in July of 2001. Several factors suggest that the IPI(TM) has, once again, correctly identified a sales trend. The overall economy is improving. Semiconductor inventories are down. Semiconductor prices are stabilizing and in some cases, ASPs are increasing, notably for DRAMs. Consumer confidence is rising, and there is solid demand for end-use products. Some Flash markets, such as Flash cards for digital cameras and MP3 players A digital music player that supports the MP3 format, which was the audio format that started a revolution in online music downloads and distribution. All portable music players, the iPod being the most popular, support MP3 along with one or more other audio formats. , have the potential for exciting growth. Taking all of these factors into account, and considering the IPI(TM) Semico believes that a semiconductor sales recovery is underway, that it will continue into 2003, and that Semico's forecast for 17.5%, total semiconductor sales growth in 2002 is valid. The Semico Tracker is a monthly newsletter. Once each quarter, the Semico Tracker includes a semiconductor sales forecast Sales forecast A key input to a firm's financial planning process. External sales forecasts are based on historical experience, statistical analysis, and consideration of various macroeconomic factors. by product type. In intervening months the Semico Tracker contains information about end-use markets, the overall economy or other factors affecting semiconductor sales. The Semico Tracker includes Industry-at-a-Glance, published at the beginning of each month, Semico's comments about just-released SIA Sia (sī`ə) or Siaha (sī`əhə), in the Bible, family returned from the Exile. SIA - Serial Interface Adaptor (Semiconductor Industry Association) data. Semico Research Corp. is a leader in providing semiconductor market analysis, research and custom consulting. For more information contact Morry Marshall 602/997-0337, morrym@semico.com or Connie Wong 480/497-8690, conniew@semico.com at Semico Research Corp., Phoenix. |
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