A Mideast thaw?

Byline: The Register-Guard

CORRECTION (ran 3/09/05): The bombing that killed 240 U.S. Marines in their barracks in Lebanon occurred in 1983. An editorial published on March 4 gave the wrong year for the attack.

One robin does not make a spring, but a small flock of them may mean a thaw is underway. After successful voting in Iraq and the election of a pragmatic new leader of the Palestinian Authority, democratic stirrings have inspired hope for political reform in Egypt, Lebanon and perhaps beyond. In a region mostly governed by autocrats and dictators, the people may be gaining a voice.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has promised constitutional reforms for this year's elections. No details have been offered, but the promise itself is significant. Mubarak has until now insisted that Egypt is a democracy, and was expected to extend his 24-year presidency by six years in another uncontested election. Now Mubarak, responding to pressure at home and from President George W. Bush, has at least tacitly admitted the need for reform.

Events in Lebanon have been more dramatic. After the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, thousands of Lebanese people publicly demanded an end to Syrian control of their country. The 15,000 troops Syria has stationed in Lebanon since 1976 still remain, but the Syrian-backed prime minister and his Cabinet have resigned. France, the country's former colonial power, has joined with the United States to demand a Syrian withdrawal in accordance with a United Nations Security Council resolution approved last September.

These are winds of the kind that the architects of the Bush administration's war in Iraq predicted would blow through the region after the fall of Saddam Hussein. To credit U.S. foreign policy with all positive changes in the Mideast discounts the role of the people of Egypt and Lebanon, and overlooks the complexity of both countries' histories.

Yet Walid Jumblatt, head of Lebanon's Druze minority, puts Iraq at the heart of his analysis of his country's peaceful uprising. "It's strange for me to say it, but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq," Jumblatt told The Washington Post's David Ignatius. "I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, 8 million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world. ... The Syrian people, the Egyptian people, all say that something is changing. The Berlin Wall has fallen. We can see it."

Hopes for a new Arab world could easily prove to be misplaced. In Egypt, Mubarak may allow only token opposition, as occurred in neighboring Tunisia's elections last year. In Lebanon, Syria may refuse to budge- and even if a withdrawal were to occur, the country's stability would not be assured. Hezbollah, the group responsible for killing 240 U.S. Marines in Beirut in 2003 and which functions in Lebanon as both a political party and an armed militia, might fill a political vacuum left by Syria. Iraq's elections could still lead to a disappointing political result, as could the Palestinian Authority's transition of power.

But there's a sense that long-frozen political landscapes are beginning to crack, and that democratic aspirations have gained breathing room. Leaders, as in Egypt, are feeling pressure to yield control, and people, as in Lebanon, are feeling empowered to shape their own destinies. If these developments lead to others, Bush will be credited with having tipped the first domino.