A COUNT AGAINST THEM? CITIES FACE LOSS OF FUNDS AFTER CENSUS.

Byline: Charles F. Bostwick Staff Writer

PALMDALE - The 2000 Census could cost the Antelope Valley a lot of money: as much as $1.2 million for Lancaster, $700,000 for Palmdale.

The reason is that several state and federal tax allocations are based on population, and the census put both cities' population at thousands less than the most recent state estimates on which this year's tax revenues were based.

``It's big money,'' Palmdale Finance Director Bill Ramsey said. ``We need the money. We've always got a project we can do.''

The 2000 Census figures, released Thursday, set Palmdale's population at 116,670 and Lancaster's at 118,718.

But last May, the state estimated Palmdale's population at 122,392 and Lancaster at 128,214, plus an additional 4,188 inmates in its state prison.

For each resident, Lancaster this year got about $50 in the state's per-capita apportionment of motor vehicle license fees, plus $63 for state and federal road funds, and $5 for a state community-oriented policing grant, Lancaster Finance Director Gary Hill said.

That means reducing Lancaster's population by 10,000 would reduce city revenue by almost $1.2 million. Cutting 6,000 people from Palmdale would reduce revenue by more than $700,000.

In comparison, Lancaster's general fund budget for this year is $33.2 million, Palmdale's $34.3 million.

The ultimate impact on the cities' finances hasn't been determined. State officials have not yet decided whether they will simply adopt the census counts released last week, or use them as the basis for some other estimate.

``We're not sure what kind of role those numbers will figure into,'' said Mary Heim, a demographer in the state Department of Finance, which provides yearly population estimates for California's cities and counties. ``We're exploring some options.''

In addition, the state's 2001 population estimate - due out May 1 - will add an extra year of population growth on top of the 2000 count from the census.

The refigured population numbers will take effect with the 2001-2002 fiscal year, which starts July 1.

The Lancaster and Palmdale populations weren't the only ones overestimated by the state. The state estimated the number of Californians at more than 34.3 million. The census counted 33.9 million.

The state's population numbers are only estimates, released every year, while the U.S. Census Bureau attempts to count every American once every decade.

In the Antelope Valley, officials say, the estimates could result in inaccurately inflated population estimates because of foreclosed or otherwise vacant homes.

Each year, to arrive at the population increase, the state Department of Finance collects the number of newly issued building permits and home demolitions, and multiplies them by the vacancy rate and average household size calculated from the previous census, or more recent estimates if those are available.

It also takes into account annexations and changes in ``group quarters,'' such as jails and prisons, Heim said.