A BOOM IN SPORTS GAMBLING.

Byline: Bob Keisser Long Beach Press-Telegram 

The most famous quote of Jim Mora's days as coach of the NFL's New Orleans Saints was directed at sportswriters. It also happened to be an apropos statement about betting on sports events.

``No matter how much you think you know,'' he said, ``you just don't know.''

Anyone who has ever wagered a buck on a football game can appreciate the logic.

Trying to beat the house in sports is tougher than getting your January footing on the frozen tundra in Green Bay. The bookmaker's edge is steep, the lines sophisticated, and the process of handicapping as tangible as a jet stream. Put them together and it's easy to see why so many bettors get blown away.

This is a time when many bettors try to make up for losses incurred during the year. The college bowl season began in earnest last week, while the NFL playoffs started Saturday. It all culminates on Jan. 26, Super Bowl Sunday - betting's high holy day.

More and more people are getting sucked into gambling. The biggest growth industry in Nevada casinos during the 1995-96 fiscal year was sports wagering: $2.5 billion was bet legally, $960 million of it on football. The casinos made a profit of 4.8 percent, or $46 million, on football bets alone.

``If a billion (in) cash is bet in Las Vegas in a year on football, at least $100 billion is bet nationally (illegally) every year, and that might be low,'' said Danny Sheridan, USA Today's sports analyst and a CBS commentator. ``As much money might change hands on Monday nights (for Monday Night Football) as any Monday on Wall Street.

``I'd estimate that 40 million Americans bet $5 million on pro and college football (each weekend), and obviously most of (them) did so illegally.''

The volume notwithstanding, wagering on sports may be the most difficult game in gaming, said Mort Olshan, who is celebrating his 40th year as publisher of The Gold Sheet, the respected handicapping publication. Multiply the percentages you need to win against the random nature of the way a football bounces and you find a margin of victory thinner than Kate Moss.

``I think anyone who has tried to beat it over a period of time knows that 50 percent of all games are decided by pure luck,'' Olshan said.

Sheridan agrees it is tough, but doesn't find the margins as daunting as other financial gambles. ``The stock market is legalized gambling, but they call it investment,'' he said. ``Which is tougher? Ask your stockbroker to give you a stock with a good yield, and you won't see your return in 20 years. Now that's tough.''

Three things conspire to make wagering on sports events so difficult: luck, the house edge, and the sophistication of the point spread.

Pure luck:

There's nothing certain about the way a football will bounce. Several games from the 1996 pro and college seasons illustrate how much more of a roll of the dice football may be than craps.

Buffalo-New England, the Hail Mary: The Patriots, 4-point favorites, took a 28-18 lead with 41 seconds left. But Buffalo's Jim Kelly completed a Hail Mary TD pass in the final seconds to make it 28-25. Buffalo bettors rejoiced, Patriot backers wept.

Detroit-Atlanta, Fontes' folly: The Lions took a 28-0 lead as a 10-point favorite, then let Atlanta rally to 28-24. The Lions went on a long time-consuming drive to eat up the fourth quarter and got to the Falcon 1 with just under two minutes left, where Wayne Fontes ordered his quarterback to take a knee - three times. The Lion crowd booed lustily, because even though their team would win, they wouldn't cover the point spread.

Cal-Washington State, the safety: Trailing 21-16, Cal fumbled the ball at the WSU 1 with under two minutes to go. Washington State, a 3-1/2-point favorite, subsequently had its punter take a safety, leaving the final 21-18, and leaving Cal bettors ecstatic.

Arizona State-USC, the granddaddy of them all: ASU, a 7-point favorite, scored late to force OT. Given the dynamics of the new college OT rules, the best an ASU backer could reasonably hope for was a push (getting their money back).

USC scored first in OT to take a 35-28 lead, but Arizona State tied it at 35. With alternating possessions, ASU got the ball back and scored again to take a 42-35 lead. USC then fumbled on its possession, an ASU defender returned it for a touchdown, and the Sun Devils had a 13-point win and the most unexpected cover of the season.

``The information available to the public these days is much stronger now than it used to be,'' said Mitch (not his real name), a Long Beach native who has been both a bettor and bookmaker. He served a year in jail for bookmaking and now does all his wagering legally in a nearby state. ``In some cases, the bettor can know as much about a game as the guy who makes the line.

``But no matter how much you know, you still can't beat the 11-10 odds. There are always games which defy explanation. That's where you can get some perspective on betting.

``A friend who is a bookmaker was carrying a lot of action on the Arizona State-USC game and needed Arizona State to cover (the point spread). When the game was over, he said, `I feel like God has just come down and personally blessed me.' ''

The house edge: Bookmakers charge players a commission - what bettors know as the vigorish - of 10 percent on all wagers. You have to bet $11 to win $10, $55 to win $50, and so on up the currency food chain.

``If you flip a coin 100 times and lay 6 to 5 each time, you would have to win 61 times to make any money,'' said Ed Looney, a former addicted gambler who is now the executive director of Gamblers Anonymous. ``How can you consistently do that?''

The common break-even figure in sports wagering is 53 percent (meaning you have to win 53 percent of your bets to win money, because of the vigorish). That doesn't even take into account the need for effective money management, and the steeper odds if someone also plays parlays and teasers, where you bet on 3-10 teams against the point spread.

``If you play all three sports year-round with me, I'll have your money before 12 months are over,'' Mitch said. ``The reality is that 95 percent of all the people who play will wind up losing. The 5 percent who win are usually intelligent, have a sufficient bankroll, good money management, and often limit their play to one sport.''

``They didn't build those palaces in Las Vegas because the games were easy to beat,'' Olshan said. ``They've been holding a football handicapping contest in Las Vegas for 15 years, entered by men who consider handicapping and gambling their occupation, and no one has ever hit 70 percent. Only once has anyone hit 67 percent. Some years, the winner is under 60 percent for the season.

``There are charlatans in every business who will tell you it is an easy way to make a living, who talk about 72 percent winners and lock games (where you're guaranteed to win). But anyone who has tried it for any length of time knows it isn't easy.''

David (not his real name) is a 33-year-old teacher and admitted compulsive gambler who has seen the other side up-close. He is now working part-time for a bookmaker, taking wagers and doing accounting, to pay off his gambling debts.

``I don't think bettors really understand what an advantage the books have,'' he said. ``Bettors know they're laying 11-10, but never look at it from the bookie's perspective.

``Say a bookie takes in $30,000 of bets on one team and $40,000 on the other. His maximum risk is $7,000 thanks to the vigorish. If his side comes in, they make $14,000. So they're actually getting 2-1 odds on a game that is created as an even proposition.''

The Sophisticated line: Perhaps one of the biggest misconceptions among the public is that the point spread is a gauge of the strength of the two teams. For example, unbeaten Arizona State is a 1-1/2-point underdog vs. Ohio State in the Rose Bowl; Florida State is a 3-point underdog against Florida in the Sugar Bowl despite having beaten them in late November.

The relative strengths of the teams may be an underlying key of the point spread, but the linemaker's ideal goal is to create odds or a point spread that will inspire as much money to be bet on one side as the other.

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Photo

Photo: Jim Mora