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5. Climate variability and change: a case study in flood-prone Orissa.

5.1 Introduction and Background

1. Floods are a natural feature of India's river basins. Seasonal floods are necessary to support agriculture, deliver topsoil and nutrients to farmland in otherwise infertile in·fer·tile
Not capable of initiating, sustaining, or supporting reproduction.

adj unable to produce offspring.
 regions, sustain valuable ecosystems, and contribute to groundwater replenishment replenishment

the addition of an appropriate quantity of properly prepared solution containing the correct concentration of chemicals to the developer solutions used in radiography.
. But excessive flooding comes at a considerable cost and causes great havoc and damage. Floods are a major contributor to the poverty and vulnerability of communities.

2. It is estimated that about 12% of India's geographic area (40 million hectares) is affected by floods. (45) This is almost double the estimated 19 million hectares affected by floods in India India: Assam floods Information Bulletin No. 3/2003 The annual South Asia monsoon, while in its early stages, is having a severe impact on populations in the region. To date, at least 255 deaths, directly related to the monsoon, have been recorded in India, Bangladesh and Nepal, Pakistan  about five decades ago. This has occurred despite rising government spending Government spending or government expenditure consists of government purchases, which can be financed by seigniorage, taxes, or government borrowing. It is considered to be one of the major components of gross domestic product.  on flood protection, which has increased dramatically from Rs 0.13 million in the First Five Year Plan (1951-1956) to Rs 106 billion in the Tenth Five Year Plan (2002-2007), while 39% (15.8 million hectares) of flood-prone land is protected with embankments, drainage channels, bunds, and similar structures (Sekhar 2007; Planning Commission Noun 1. planning commission - a commission delegated to propose plans for future activities and developments
commission, committee - a special group delegated to consider some matter; "a committee is a group that keeps minutes and loses hours" - Milton Berle
 2002). Yet frequent breaches of embankments and other protective structures are a common occurrence.

3. Orissa is among the most flood-affected states in the country and is the focus of this chapter. (46) The chapter examines the impact of floods on selected districts in Orissa and explores the consequences of climate change and variability for agriculture. The assessment is in two districts: Jagatsinghpur and Puri. The analysis draws upon field surveys and future climate projections derived using the IMS (1) See IP Multimedia Subsystem.

(2) (Information Management System) An early IBM hierarchical DBMS for IBM mainframes. IMS was widely implemented throughout the 1970s under MVS and continues to be used under z/OS.
 described in chapter 2 and appendix A.

5.2 Characteristics of Study Area

5.2.1 Climate and Geography

4. Orissa is located in eastern India, with a coastline that extends over 480 kilometers. Its geography has rendered it highly vulnerable to natural calamities and extreme weather events such as cyclones, droughts, floods, and storm surges. Between 1965 and 2006, the state experienced about 17 droughts, over 20 floods, 8 cyclones, and a super cyclone cyclone, atmospheric pressure distribution in which there is a low central pressure relative to the surrounding pressure. The resulting pressure gradient, combined with the Coriolis effect, causes air to circulate about the core of lowest pressure in a  in 1999, which had devastating dev·as·tate  
tr.v. dev·as·tat·ed, dev·as·tat·ing, dev·as·tates
1. To lay waste; destroy.

2. To overwhelm; confound; stun: was devastated by the rude remark.
 consequences. (47) To compound these problems, there are years in which the state simultaneously endures droughts and extensive floods.

5. The state's population of 37 million resides mainly in rural areas (85%), with a large population of marginal farmers. The average size of landholdings is less than 1 acre (0.4 hectare hectare (hĕk`târ, –tär), abbr. ha, unit of area in the metric system, equal to 10,000 sq m, or about 2.47 acres. ). The main crop is rice, often grown in a two-crop combination with oilseeds, pulses, groundnut groundnut, common name for several different genera of twining herbaceous, leguminous plants with geocarpie (underground fruits), chiefly the peanut. Groundnuts are classified in the division Magnoliophyta, class Magnoliopsida, order Rosales, family Leguminosae.  and jute. The state is located within the Mahanadi basin, which drains about 42% of its total area. Large tracts of cultivated land in the state have no access to irrigation irrigation, in agriculture, artificial watering of the land. Although used chiefly in regions with annual rainfall of less than 20 in. (51 cm), it is also used in wetter areas to grow certain crops, e.g., rice. , with 75%> of the cultivated area being rainfall dependent. Of the state's territory, 21% (3.34 million hectares) is considered flood prone (Government of Orissa 2006c).48 The population most affected by floods is in the diara lands of the deltaic region and other low-lying areas.

6. Assessing the full impact of floods on communities is a challenging exercise. There are both direct and indirect costs Indirect costs are costs that are not directly accountable to a particular function or product; these are fixed costs. Indirect costs include taxes, administration, personnel and security costs. See also
  • Operating cost
 associated with flooding. The direct costs are closely connected to a flood event: the magnitude, extent, and duration determine the resulting physical damage. By contrast, indirect costs are incurred over an extended time period in the aftermath of a flood. They include loss of opportunity, reduction in property values, foregone fore·gone
Past participle of forego1.

Having gone before; previous.

Usage Note: The word foregone has recently developed a new meaning as a truncation of the phrase
 tax revenue, and disturbance DISTURBANCE, torts. A wrong done to an incorporeal hereditament, by hindering or disquieting the owner in the enjoyment of it. Finch. L. 187; 3 Bl. Com. 235; 1 Swift's Dig. 522; Com. Dig. Action upon the case for a disturbance, Pleader, 3 I 6; 1 Serg. & Rawle, 298.  to ecosystems. Measuring these is more difficult. (49) The focus here is on the direct costs, but even for these more visible impacts accurate measurements remain elusive and are difficult to verify against actual expenditures and losses.

7. Table 5.1 shows that the extent of flood damage in Orissa has varied greatly from year to year. A feature of the flood damage is that public property losses are far greater than either agricultural or private property losses. This suggests scope for better protection of public assets through improved planning and climate risk assessments, an issue that is addressed later in this chapter.

5.2.2 Anatomy of the Sample Villages

8. The choice of districts selected for this case study is based on a vulnerability profile developed for the state, which found the districts of Puri and Jagatsinghpur to be especially susceptible to the impacts of climate change because of the regular occurrence of floods (see appendix B for details). The districts are located on the state's eastern coast. Puri has a long coastline of 155 kilometers, which is almost twice that of Jagatsinghpur. Both districts are very similar in terms of socioeconomic indicators (table 5.2). Puri has an average annual rainfall of 1,449 millimeters per year compared to Jagatsinghpur's slightly higher average of 1,501 millimeters per year. For the purposes of this case study, three villages were selected from each district (see figures 5.1 and 5.2 for location). (50)



5.3 Impacts of Floods

9. Evidence of preadaptation to floods. Households in these villages are accustomed to floods. Contrary to what is observed in most rural districts, agriculture is not the primary source of income in the study area. Livelihoods and occupations have responded and adjusted to the predictability of floods. In Puri 54% of income is derived from nonagricultural sources, and in Jagatsinghpur the figure is higher at 70%. In addition to casual nonskilled labor, aquaculture aquaculture, the raising and harvesting of fresh- and saltwater plants and animals. The most economically important form of aquaculture is fish farming, an industry that accounts for an ever increasing share of world fisheries production. , fishing, dairy, and petty business are the main nonagricultural activities in which households engage. Many of these initiatives have flourished because of the proactive interventions of community groups (including selfhelp groups) and the state government, but the scale of these activities is still minor. Figure 5.3 summarizes the sources of income. Large landholders remain the most dependent on agricultural sources of income, mostly from cultivation cultivation, tilling or manipulation of the soil, done primarily to eliminate weeds that compete with crops for water and nutrients. Cultivation may be used in crusted soils to increase soil aeration and infiltration of water; it may also be used to move soil to or . The landless land·less  
Owning or having no land.

landless·ness n.

Adj. 1.
 and marginal farmers earn the bulk of their income from casual labor.


10. Volatility of incomes. Figure 5.4 depicts the impact of the 2003/4 flood on households, illustrating vulnerabilities across sources of income. Large farmers and the landless suffer the greatest reduction in their incomes. For the large farmers, this reflects their heavy reliance on agriculture and rainfall-dependent sources of income. There are also differences in the impact of floods on nonagricultural incomes across landholding land·hold·er  
One that owns land.

landholding n.
 size. The nonagricultural incomes of the marginal farmers and the landless register the largest decline after a flood, reflecting their fragile economic status, typically as unskilled casual laborers with little job security. In policy terms, it suggests the need for greater attention to these vulnerable groups.


11. Impacts on agriculture. Looking more closely at damage to agriculture, rice in the flood-prone kharif season is hit hard by inundation INUNDATION. The overflow of waters by coming out of their bed.
     2. Inundations may arise from three causes; from public necessity, as in defence of a place it may be necessary to dam the current of a stream, which will cause an inundation to the upper lands;
; production declined by 67% in the flood year (table 5.3). A direct consequence of the drop in agricultural output is that agricultural incomes in the surveyed households are reduced, on average, by about 20%. However, floods boost productivity in the rabi season as a result of increased soil moisture and fertility; consequently, there is a growing emphasis towards more intensive cultivation during the rabi season.

12. Broader impacts of flood. The effects of floods go beyond economic and financial hardship. Data from both districts show that the health of the population is considerably affected by floods: a large number of households (59%) report a higher incidence of sickness due to water-borne diseases as a result of flooding. The incidence is reported to be higher in Jagatsinghpur (67%), which is more prone to waterlogging For the financial term, see watered stock.
Waterlogging is a verbal noun meaning the saturation of such as ground or the filling of such as a boat with water.

Ground may be regarded as waterlogged when the water table of the ground water is too high to conveniently permit
 because of its low-lying geography, than in Puri (59%). As a result, health expenditures increase by 15%, with the medium farmers and the landless being worst affected. With lower incomes, it is unsurprising that expenditure on food declines, on average, by 6%.

13. Education is also disrupted by floods in two ways: children are either forced out of school to engage in work to supplement the household income or they cannot attend because school facilities suffer damages. Of the population surveyed, 27% reported that their children drop out of school following a flood event. In addition, flooding forces people to abandon their homes (48%). Forced migration to towns in search of alternative sources of employment is another consequence of natural disasters (9% of the sampled population). Box 5.1 describes strategies followed in the study areas to cope with floods.
Box 5.1 Flood Coping Strategies in Study Area

Income diversification away from agriculture appears to provide a
robust way of ameliorating flood impacts. But in addition to this,
households adopt a host of strategies to ameliorate the effects of

Proactive approaches, which anticipate future costs and are
designed to avoid or prevent damages. Strategies reported by the
surveyed households include:

* Safe storage of food grains in houses or public shelters (37% of

* Construction of special facilities for grain storage, for example
high shelves (22% of households);

* Crop insurance, largely concentrated among large landholders,
reflecting their greater purchasing power and need to protect
assets of higher value (20% of households);

* Floodproofing dwellings (16% of households).

Reactive measures attempt to ease the immediate impact and cost of
flood damage:

* The most common measure reported was borrowing of money through
credit or loans (reported by 54% of sampled households). Of these,
48% come from formal credit sources such as banks and cooperatives.
This is likely a consequence of the existence of farmers'
cooperatives and government programs that have been established to
address rural poverty and disaster management in Orissa. The
success of these initiatives is further indicated by the fact that
access to credit is relatively evenly distributed across all
landholdings (see table below). The fact that 53% of large farmers
do not borrow, compared to about 34% of medium, marginal, and
landless, speaks to the fact that large farmers have more assets
and a wider set of options to rely on in times of crisis than do
their less fortunate counterparts.

* Distress sales of cattle and jewelry (15% of households)
constituted another reactive measure and was largely concentrated
among the landless and medium farmers.

Distribution of Credit across Landholding Size

Source of                                          (% of
credit         Large   Medium   Small   Marginal   households)

Informal (%)   6.4     6.0      3.9     3.9        7.1
Formal (%)     40.0    57.3     62.7    62.7       49.1
No loan (%)    53.6    36.7     33.3    33.3       43.8

Sample size: 552

5.4 Future Prospects under Climate Change

14. Turning to the future, the IMS projects the impacts that a changing climate may have on the agricultural sector. The projections are for the lower Mahanadi basin in the A2 and B2 scenarios. The basin-level projections are illustrated in figure 5.4.

5.4.1 Projections of Climate Change

15. The model projections indicate:

* In the coastal districts located on the deltaic area the model projects a 23% increase, on average, in the annual mean rainfall in A2 and 19%> in B2 (see appendix H).

* A projected shift in the monthly rainfall patterns, with more rainfall in the already wetter months of May and July (kharif planting season), and less rainfall from October to December (rabi). The implication is clear--heightened flood risks in the kharif season in the six districts studied.

* There are also important changes in the spatial distribution of rainfall, as the central section of the basin becomes somewhat drier but the already flood-prone areas on the coast will receive more rain.

* At the district level, average annual maximum temperatures are expected to increase in both scenarios by between 2.4[degrees]C and 3.7[degrees]C, but in A2 the increase is more pronounced than in B2. Minimum temperatures are projected to increase by an even greater amount--as much as 4.2[degrees]C in A2.

16. The assessment suggests that the probability of flood frequency and its intensity could increase dramatically. The hydrological hy·drol·o·gy  
The scientific study of the properties, distribution, and effects of water on the earth's surface, in the soil and underlying rocks, and in the atmosphere.
 model projects daily outflow discharges at a gauge station (located in Naraj northwest of Jagatsinghpur and Puri). The results show that in the A2 and B2 scenarios, the probability of flooding will increase substantially. As an example of the implied magnitudes, the probability that the discharge might exceed, say, 25,000 cumecs (cubic meters per second) is low (about two to three times in 100 events) in the baseline. But under climate change, this is projected to rise to about ten times in every 100 events (figure 5.6). Changes of this scale will have significant implications for the type and location of hydrological infrastructure that will be needed to protect communities and their assets and highlight the need for better forecasting tools to identify priorities for structural interventions.



5.4.2 Crop Responses to Climate Change

17. To determine how climate change may affect agriculture it is instructive in·struc·tive  
Conveying knowledge or information; enlightening.

in·structive·ly adv.
 to distinguish the influence of climate (the flood event) from other possible changes in the economy and in agricultural practices. Increases in flood damage due to changes in climate might require different remedies from damage due to changes in economic activity. Accordingly the results presented in this section investigate scenarios with changes in climate, holding economic and technological factors at their baseline levels.

18. To compare future impacts on agriculture, four crops were selected: rice, groundnut, maize maize: see corn. , and sunflower sunflower, any plant of the genus Helianthus of the family Asteraceae (aster family), annual or perennial herbs native to the New World and common throughout the United States. . These crops collectively account for almost 70% of the agricultural output in six coastal districts, with rice accounting for the largest proportion. Projections were run to predict yields for these crops in both districts. For brevity Brevity
Adonis’ garden

of short life. [Br. Lit.: I Henry IV]


symbolic of transitoriness of life. [Art: Hall, 54]

cherry fair

cherry orchards where fruit was briefly sold; symbolic of transience.
, the focus is on Puri, as the pattern is very similar to that in other areas in the study.

19. In the baseline the typical farm grows rice because of its suitability to the climate. Under climate change the results show that yields of all crops suffer a decline in both the A2 and B2 scenarios, but the extent of the decline is less in B2 than in A2, given the milder nature of the changes in temperature and rainfall (figure 5.7a). Figure 5.7b illustrates the distribution of rice yields under climate change. It shows that climate scenarios that are unfavorable to rice yields emerge more frequently, whereas climate events that generate high yields become less common.



5.4.3 Projected Consequences of Climate Change

20. Overall, groundnut, a crop that is usually grown in arid ar·id  
1. Lacking moisture, especially having insufficient rainfall to support trees or woody plants: an arid climate.

 regions, is expected to be hit hardest, followed by maize (which is dependent on soil moisture, but also needs time to dry), rice, and sunflower (which needs moist moist

having a moderate moisture content, slightly wet to the touch.

moist dermatitis
see moist dermatitis of rabbits.

moist grain storage
grain stored at about 30% moisture in airtight silos.
 soil, but also full sun to grow optimally). The economic model estimates that the decline in yields leads to a reduction in farmer profits, as illustrated in figure 5.8. Since the area is dominated by rice, which is among the most flood resistant of crops, there is little that farmers can do to shift planting patterns, suggesting that the prospects for agriculture in the region may deteriorate de·te·ri·o·rate
1. To grow worse in function or condition.

2. To weaken or disintegrate.
 under climate change. Climate change consequently reinforces the benefits that would accrue To increase; to augment; to come to by way of increase; to be added as an increase, profit, or damage. Acquired; falling due; made or executed; matured; occurred; received; vested; was created; was incurred.  from further income diversification Diversification

A risk management technique that mixes a wide variety of investments within a portfolio. It is designed to minimize the impact of any one security on overall portfolio performance.

Diversification is possibly the greatest way to reduce the risk.


5.5 Policy Implications

21. Against a background of more intense and frequent flood risks, it is necessary to ask whether current policies and institutional structures will provide effective protection to vulnerable communities. Orissa, like other states in India, has achieved remarkable success in countering the most extreme effects of floods (Dreze and Sen 1989). When floods strike, an elaborate relief machinery comes into operation with rapidly arranged protective polices, including employment schemes, cash and food disbursements, health care, and shelter (box 5.2).

5.5.1 Fiscal burden

22. Disaster relief is a high policy priority for the state government, but it comes at a substantial price on the public purse. With the frequency of natural disasters, Orissa spends more on relief and damages than on planned sectoral and departmental schemes in the rural sector (GoO 2003a-c, 2004, 2005a-b 2006a). Tables 5.4a and 5.4b show that the cost of relief in just four years exceeded that of development expenditures for selected major sectoral programs delivered through the Tenth Five Year Plan. The fiscal strain is substantial since central government reimbursements against flood relief are usually lower than the requests for assistance.

5.5.2 Flood management system

23. Reflecting the importance given to climate disasters, administrative oversight resides in the highest political office in the state--the chief minister and the ministerial Done under the direction of a supervisor; not involving discretion or policymaking.

Ministerial describes an act or a function that conforms to an instruction or a prescribed procedure. It connotes obedience.
 cabinet. Implementation is left to various departments under an elaborate organizational structure. The main thrust of the flood management system is on two issues: relief and protection. The relief mechanisms are comprehensive and are judged effective. Similarly, there is a wide-ranging action plan prepared by the Water Resources Department envisioning a host of structural measures, including dam construction, raising and strengthening of embankments, and interbasin transfer of water. Though most state government resources are spent on structural measures, there are also nonstructural initiatives for flood management either planned or under way in Orissa. These include legal measures, flood plain zoning, institutional coordination, drainage plans, and the use of satellite maps (box 5.2). However, as tables 5.4 a and b show, the state is not fully utilizing its outlays Outlays

Payments on obligations in the form of cash, checks, the issuance of bonds or notes, or the maturing of interest coupons.
 planned for either sectoral programs or relief. These funds could therefore be earmarked for adaptation programs.
Box 5.2 Flood Management in Orissa

Orissa has a complex flood management system. The state Flood
Management Organization in Orissa is headed by the revenue
minister, who controls statewide flood management and relief
operations. The Orissa State Disaster Management Agency oversees
relief operations and the special relief commissioner, Revenue
Department, is in charge of coordinating flood relief activities in
the state. The Revenue Department coordinates with a host of other
state departments. The district-level heads, the collectors,
directly monitor and operate the flood management system and relief
works. Likewise there are complex flood reporting protocols
involving numerous agencies.


The relief system is comprehensive and comprises: (a) evacuation
services; (b) the assessment of crop loss and other damages; (c)
housing and the provision of other financial assistance in
specially deserving cases; (c) health services; (d) drinking water
supply; (e) employment; (f) the provision of free food, polythene,
and kerosene; (h) emergency facilities to preserve animal welfare,
such as cattle camps, provision of fodder, veterinary treatment,
and vaccination; and (g) furnishment of daily situation reports to
the regional divisional commissioner and the special relief
commissioner until the danger is over.

Nonstructural Measures for Flood Management in Orissa

* Legal measures. The oldest form of nonstructural flood management
measures is the legislation that has been enacted over the years,
from the Bengal Embankment Act of 1882, which provided for the
construction, maintenance, and management of embankments and
watercourses and gave powers to the collector to move any
obstruction to general drainage or flood drainage in any tract of
land, to the Orissa Gram Panchayat Act of 1965, which requires gram
panchayats to construct, maintain, and clean drains and drainage

* Flood plain zoning. Recognizing zoning as an important strategy
for flood management, the Government of Orissa has constituted a
subcommittee to finalize a draft flood plain zoning bill.

* Institutional coordination. The Orissa State Disaster Management
Agency, as the nodal agency for coordination and preparedness,
coordinates across government agencies during flood preparation,
forms community disaster management committees at village, block,
and district levels, promotes community-based disaster preparedness
through participatory planning, roles and responsibility
distribution, and coordination with different departments at
different levels, maintains communication networks, keeps ready the
Orissa Disaster Rapid Action Force, and develops and maintains
rescue, shelter, and storage infrastructure at village level.

* Watershed programs. Watershed development programs are currently
not focused on flood management but rather may achieve some part of
this as a by-product. The Orissa Watershed Development Mission, an
independent agency under the Department of Agriculture, is
responsible for planning, implementing, and monitoring all programs
in the state.

* Master plan for drainage clearance in 17 doabs of Orissa's
coastal belt has been prepared.

* Satellite imagery. The Orissa State Remote Sensing Application
Centre has several satellite-based images and maps, but basic flood
inundation maps are still not available.

24. The current emphasis on relief and structural solutions is necessary, but not sufficient to build flood resilience resilience (r·zilˑ·yens),
. Relief is an essential part of flood policy and is needed to alleviate suffering and distress. But it is limited in its effectiveness, as it does not address one of the root causes of vulnerability--the exposure to climate risks. With climate change projected to bring far greater flood risk, the already high costs of relief could rise dramatically. More importantly, an overemphasis o·ver·em·pha·size  
tr. & intr.v. o·ver·em·pha·sized, o·ver·em·pha·siz·ing, o·ver·em·pha·siz·es
To place too much emphasis on or employ too much emphasis.
 on relief could blunt blunt (blunt) having a thick or dull edge or point; not sharp.  incentives to shift to more climate-resilient activities and prolong pro·long  
tr.v. pro·longed, pro·long·ing, pro·longs
1. To lengthen in duration; protract.

2. To lengthen in extent.
 dependence on flood-sensitive livelihoods.

25. Structural solutions are also necessary, but are seldom sufficient to assure full protection. History shows that the public (rather than decision makers) tends to become complacent com·pla·cent  
1. Contented to a fault; self-satisfied and unconcerned: He had become complacent after years of success.

2. Eager to please; complaisant.
 about the level of protection that any engineering solution can provide. Structural measures can never offer complete safety, for all possible events, so residual risks on the community will remain. With climate change and the expectation of more extreme events, these risks will increase over time. This suggests that there is a need to complement structural and relief solutions with policies that build community resilience to floods.

26. Experience elsewhere suggests that a comprehensive and effective flood management strategy must include a suitable combination of reactive measures (relief), proactive interventions (both structural and nonstructural measures), and economic policies designed to build flood resilience and lower exposure to flood risks. Countries such as Argentina, China, Poland, and Turkey have struggled for decades with recurrent floods and have addressed the problem by undertaking a systematic series of investments in all these areas (box 5.3).
Box 5.3 Poland Flood Emergency Project (1997-2005): Good Practice
in Nonstructural Measures for Flood Management

The Flood Emergency Project was implemented following the 1997
flood in the Odra River basin, which entailed costs of US$2.3
billion and the loss of 57 lives. The project's main objective was
to increase flood preparedness and management in Poland through the
modernization and expansion of the country's flood forecasting and
warning system which, after the completion of the project, became
one of the most modern in the world.

A subcomponent on basin flood management planning calls for
updating and developing new basin management strategies and plans,
with an emphasis on economic assessment of flood hazard and
formulation of alternatives for different levels of protection,
including structural and nonstructural options. Three regional
coordination and information centers were established at Krakow,
Wroclaw, and Gliwiceby, and an advanced database, using remote
sensing data, enabled hydraulic modeling of flood plains and the
generation of flood hazard maps, contributing to the development of
early warning systems and the preparation of flood protection

Local flood loss reduction and flood prevention plans, including
postdisaster components, were also prepared and implemented in 12
territorial self-government units by local governments and
residents, with the support of technical support units. Cofinancing
for reconstruction of hydraulic structures was provided to eight

The project included elements that were (a) proactive, including
restrictions on flood plain development, preparation of a handbook
on flood mitigation measures, and refinement of early warning
systems: and (b) reactive, including the putting in place of rescue
and evacuation plans.

A basin approach to water management, consistent with the European
Union's Water Framework Directive, was strengthened under the
project. The Odra River Basin Flood Protection Project (2007-2014),
which aims to protect over 2.5 million people against loss of life
or damage to property caused by severe flooding, will build on the
achievements and experience of its predecessor.

Source: World Bank 2006a.

5.5.3 Elements of a Strengthened Strategy

27. The current system in Orissa provide a strong foundation upon which to build a strengthened flood management strategy that is capable of meeting the challenge of more frequent and intensifying in·ten·si·fy  
v. in·ten·si·fied, in·ten·si·fy·ing, in·ten·si·fies
1. To make intense or more intense:
 floods. There would be three components, all designed to build flood resilience and mitigate damage through an integrated flood management plan. The components are:

* Advanced systems for the detection and forecasting of floods;

* Anticipatory and proactive actions designed to minimize flood risks and build capacity to withstand flood events;

* Reactive actions that deal with the aftermath of floods and include compensation and relief.

Strengthening Systems for Detection and Forecasting

28. Climate change projections suggest that there will be changes in the spatial distribution, intensity, and frequency of floods. Advanced forecasting and risk diagnostic tools will be needed to guide investments in high-value flood protection assets. The current forecasting system for the seven flood-prone basins of the state are in need of upgrading and improvement to match the scale of risks that climate change could bring. The forecasting authority (Central Water Commission) employs a single hydrograph for a very large basin and uses an insufficient number of forecast points. The system's effectiveness could be enhanced by combining data collection, telemetry telemetry

Highly automated communications process by which data are collected from instruments located at remote or inaccessible points and transmitted to receiving equipment for measurement, monitoring, display, and recording.
, flood forecasting Flood forecasting is the use of real-time precipitation and streamflow data in rainfall-runoff and streamflow routing models to forecast flow rates and water levels for periods ranging from a few hours to days ahead, depending on the size of the watershed or river basin. M. F. C. , and flood warning elements into one integrated flood management and information system for the basin. (51) Flood inundation mapping is another important planning tool and provides local authorities with important information for emergency flood responses. Generating such data for the Mahanadi delta area should be a priority for the Government of Orissa.

Strengthening Anticipatory Measures

29. Although technology can help detect and even forecast floods in a timely way, the information needs to be integrated into planning and policy for longer-term measures that reduce (a) the magnitude of the flood; and (b) vulnerability to a flood of any given magnitude.

30. The assault on floods: importance of structural protection. Any improvements made to existing facilities, or construction of new ones, will need to take into account the prospect of more intense flooding and spatial shifts in flood incidence. Improvements (where needed) and expansion (where possible) of flood control infrastructure are vital in reducing flood damage. The Government of Orissa has been prudent in recognizing that absolute protection to all flood areas, for all magnitudes of floods and for different probabilities of occurrence, is neither possible nor economic. Economic considerations argue for an emphasis towards the protection of the higher-value assets (for example urban areas, infrastructure), with greater importance given to building adaptability a·dapt·a·ble  
Capable of adapting or of being adapted.

 and flood resilience elsewhere. So careful monitoring and planning of new settlements in these flood-prone areas needs to remain a priority for government authorities.

31. The accommodation of floods: Importance of nonstructural resilience building. (52) A number of measures may be considered within this context:

* Agricultural adaptation. Flood-resilient agriculture provides a way to insulate in·su·late  
tr.v. in·su·lat·ed, in·su·lat·ing, in·su·lates
1. To cause to be in a detached or isolated position. See Synonyms at isolate.

 incomes against flood damage. Numerous pilots have been attempted with more rainfall-tolerant or short-duration varieties of certain crops to minimize flood-related losses. Though economically viable solutions remain elusive, these initiatives have potential and warrant continued support, as the benefits from research and extension are always uncertain and take time to produce results. A greater emphasis on rabi cultivation could be further facilitated by improving irrigation access in the drier months.

* Economic instruments. For those with few or no assets, who depend on agricultural wages, the situation is more challenging. The economic instruments that are relevant for encouraging income diversification for drought management--such as credit and insurance schemes linked to job diversification--are equally pertinent in the context of floods. The spread of self-help groups in Orissa provides a potential community base for launching such schemes.

* Income diversification. There are already numerous and successful pilots in Orissa that aim to promote flood-based livelihoods. This is the quintessential quin·tes·sen·tial  
Of, relating to, or having the nature of a quintessence; being the most typical: "Liszt was the quintessential romantic" Musical Heritage Review.
 form of flood adaptation. Aquaculture is one option with considerable promise for unleashing rural growth. With the escalating demand for fish in India, and across the world, there is scope to increase aquaculture production in flood-prone areas. But for this to eventuate e·ven·tu·ate  
intr.v. e·ven·tu·at·ed, e·ven·tu·at·ing, e·ven·tu·ates
To result ultimately: The epidemic eventuated in the deaths of thousands.

Verb 1.
, two obstacles need to be addressed. First, research and extension on biological sustainability, environmental impacts (externalities externalities

side-effects, either harmful or beneficial, borne by those not directly involved in the production of a commodity.
), fish productivity, and the choice of species is in its infancy infancy, stage of human development lasting from birth to approximately two years of age. The hallmarks of infancy are physical growth, motor development, vocal development, and cognitive and social development.  and requires considerable further investment. A second and more important constraint Constraint

A restriction on the natural degrees of freedom of a system. If n and m are the numbers of the natural and actual degrees of freedom, the difference n - m is the number of constraints.
 arises from the outdated marketing system for perishables. Investments in addressing both the research and supply chain obstacles are obvious policy priorities for the flood-prone regions.

* The primacy of planning and zoning. With the pressures of rapid population growth and land scarcity Scarcity

The basic economic problem which arises from people having unlimited wants while there are and always will be limited resources. Because of scarcity, various economic decisions must be made to allocate resources efficiently.
 coupled with intensifying flood risks there is a need for better and more careful planning and flood zoning. Land use planning

Main article: urban planning

Land use planning is the term used for a branch of public policy which encompasses various disciplines which seek to order and regulate the use of land in an efficient and ethical way.
 and water management need to be combined into a synthesized syn·the·sized  
1. Relating to or being an instrument whose sound is modified or augmented by a synthesizer.

2. Relating to or being compositions or a composition performed on synthesizers or synthesized instruments.
 plan and call for coordination between various departments and levels of government. A greater challenge is the implementation of a plan that would affect many interests and would need processes that involve public participation and stakeholder stakeholder n. a person having in his/her possession (holding) money or property in which he/she has no interest, right or title, awaiting the outcome of a dispute between two or more claimants to the money or property.  engagement.

* Improved watershed watershed, elevation or divide separating the catchment area, or drainage basin, of one river system or group of river systems from another system or group of systems. The term is also often used synonymously with drainage basin.  programs. Watershed development programs should take into account flood management as an explicit design practice. International experience shows that planning watersheds upstream in the river basin can significantly contribute to improved flood management.

5.5.4 Reactive Strategies

32. In terms of reactive policies, India has established disaster relief systems that are among the most comprehensive in the world (box 5.2). There effectiveness could be improved through further fine tuning Fine Tuning is the name of XM Satellite Radio's eclectic music channel. The program director for Fine Tuning is Ben Smith.

The channel is described as "A musical oasis for the sophisticated listener culled from every imaginable genre and country.
. But ultimately adapting to floods remains the most sustainable and effective way to protect communities and harness rural growth. Improvements in the relief system might include the following:

* Improved training of panchayats and communities in flood preparedness pre·par·ed·ness  
The state of being prepared, especially military readiness for combat.

Noun 1. preparedness - the state of having been made ready or prepared for use or action (especially military action); "putting them
. Community contingency plans for relief have been prepared through government initiatives but in many cases the plans have not been updated and have lost their relevance as circumstances change.

* There is a gap between what is being planned for relief and what is being implemented on the ground (for example, what medical facilities are provided), largely due to poor accountability and monitoring of relief work.

* The protection of critical infrastructure and shelters, surprisingly, does not figure in the list of disaster preparedness actions at the state, district, or subdistrict levels. Safe shelters have been constructed in the coastal belt primarily to protect the coastal communities against cyclones, not floods. The maintenance and effectiveness of these shelters are therefore a concern.
Table 5.1 Floods and Resulting Damage in Orissa 2001-2007


                                 2001/2    2003/4    2004/5

Administrative areas/population affected
Number of districts                  24        27         5
Number of blocks                    219       230        20
Number of villages               18,790    13,404       564
Population affected (million)      9.68      7.62      0.31

Physical losses and damages
Number of human lives lost          102        93        10
Number of livestock lost         18,149     2,956         -
Crop area affected ('000 ha)        799     1,490        37
Number of houses damaged         187,575   185,483    2,097

Financial loss (Rs million)
Crop loss                           667     2,538        79
Private property loss               564       633         5
Public property loss              8,834    11,937       662
Total                            10,065    15,108       746


                                 2005/6    2006/7 (a)

Administrative areas/population affected
Number of districts                  14        --
Number of blocks                     72        --
Number of villages                4,318    22,381
Population affected (million)      1.91      8.06

Physical losses and damages
Number of human lives lost           10        90
Number of livestock lost              -     1,656
Crop area affected ('000 ha)         94       309
Number of houses damaged         18,099    120,446

Financial loss (Rs million)
Crop loss                            --        --
Private property loss                --        --
Public property loss              2,434        --
Total                             2,434        --

-- Not available.

(a.) At the time of writing no figures were available for several
of the categories in the 2006/7 period.

Sources: Memoranda on floods for various years submitted by
Government of Orissa to Government of India, and annual reports
on natural calamities of the special relief commissioner for the
years cited.

Table 5.2 Socioeconomic Characteristics of Puri and Jagatsinghpur
Districts Compared to Orissa State

Indicator              Orissa      Jagatsinghpur  Puri

Total area (million    15.6        0.19           0.14

Total population       36.8        1.1            1.5

Rural population (as   85          86             87
% of total)

Population growth      15.94       13.15          14.8
rate (%, 1991-2001)

Literacy rate (% of    63          79             78

Normal rainfall (mm/   1,482       1,501          1,449

Gross irrigated area   34.5        52             40
(%, 2004/5)

Main crops grown       Rice,       Rice,          Rice,
                       pulses,     pulses,        groundnut,
                       oilseeds    groundnut      millets

Sources: Government of Orissa 2001a, 2002a, 2005a; Government
of India 2004.

Table 5.3 Average Seasonal Crop Production in the Surveyed
                                Normal year  Flood year
                                (2005/6)     (2003/4)
                                                          % Change
                                Average      Average      in
Season             Crop         production   production   average
                                (kg)         (kg)         production

Kharif             Rice         2,739        893          -67
Rabi               Rice         4,863        4,580        -6
(November-April)   Groundnut    1,211        1,381        14
                   Black gram   273          215          -21
                   Parbal       1,380        1,560        13
                   Vegetables   930          975          4
                   Green gram   317          350          10

Note: Total production (kg) = number of bags x size of bags (kg).
Sample size: 552

Source: TERI 2006.

Table 5.4a Orissa: Outlays and Expenditures for
Sectoral Programs 2002-2007 (Rs billion)

Tenth Five Year Plan
(2002-2007)                 Outlay       Expenditure

Agriculture and allied
activities, forest          7.98         2.69
Rural development           8.98         7.96
Special area programs       16.92        18.80
Irrigation, flood
  control                   39.92        24.42
Total                       73.79        53.87

Table 5.4b Orissa: Allocation and Expenditures for
Drought and Flood Relief 2002-2006 (Rs billion)

                            and flood
Tenth Five Year Plan        relief
(2002-2007)                 (by year)    Allocation  Expenditure (3)

Agriculture and allied
activities, forest          2002/3       20.34       18.02
Rural development           2003/4       27.41       21.49
Special area programs       2004/5       26.41       23.60
Irrigation, flood
  control                   2005/6       31.80       3.65
Total                                    105.96      66.77

(a.) Figures for 2002/3 and 2003/4 are actual expenditures;
for 2004/5, the figure is provisional; for 2005/6 it is an
average estimate.

Sources: 5.4a: Economic Survey of Orissa, 2004/5 and 2005/6;
5.4b: GoO, 2006a.
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Title Annotation:Climate Change Impacts in Drought and Flood Affected Areas: Case Studies in India
Publication:Climate Change Impacts In Drought and Flood Affected Areas: Case Studies In India
Article Type:Case study
Date:Jun 1, 2008
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