3 WIDE THREE OF NASCAR'S YOUNG GUNS - JIMMIE JOHNSON (48), KURT BUSCH (97) AND KEVIN HARVICK (29) - RIDE INTO CALIFORNIA SPEEDWAY AS THE FAVORITES TO WIN THE NEXTEL CUP CHAMPIONSHIP.

Byline: TIM HADDOCK Motor Sports

Before the season started, NASCAR asked members of the motor sports media to predict who would be in the Nextel Cup top 10 at the end of the season.

With the new Chase for the Championship format to determine the NASCAR Nextel Cup champ, being in the top 10 means more than ever.

The drivers in the top 10 or within 400 points of the leader after the 26th race of the season will be eligible to race for the championship in the final 10 races of the year.

Roush Racing driver Kurt Busch topped my list. But only one other member of the auto racing media was in agreement with that pick. Taking into consideration Busch's record of winning at short tracks (Bristol Motor Speedway three of the past four races), cookie cutters (Atlanta Motor Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway) and super speedways (defending champion at California Speedway), plus his streak at the end of the 2002 season when he won three of the last five races, it seemed like a no-brainer to put Busch at the top.

But Ryan Newman, the winningest driver in the Nextel Cup Series a year ago, was the media's preseason favorite to win the championship.

Sunday's Auto Club 500 at California Speedway in Fontana marks the 10th race of the season, and there are few surprises in the driver standings. Dale Earnhardt Jr. leads the series, with defending Cup champion Matt Kenseth and Busch also claiming the No. 1 spot at times during the season. Newman, however, finally returned to the top 10 after Talladega (Ala.), and is ninth in points.

Not surprisingly, Bakersfield's Kevin Harvick and El Cajon's Jimmie Johnson are two of the top-10 drivers in the standings as well. Harvick, from Richard Childress Racing, and Johnson, from Hendrick Motorsports, drive for two of the top teams in NASCAR. Combined, their teams have won 11 Cup championships and their bosses would expect them to be in the top 10 at the 10th race of the season, the 27th and knocking on the No. 1 spot at the 36th.

``I mean, everything we're doing now is to position ourselves in the top 10 for the end of the year and make sure we get our cars where we need to have them and just maintain ourselves where we need to be,'' Harvick said. ``Not that we're not trying to win races, we know that the ultimate picture is the last 10 races so we just have to do what we have to do. I know the guys, we came back after Texas and had a brand new car sitting in the shop getting ready to go to the paint shop for California. We came back, cut the whole body off of it and they're working real hard to put a new body on it. What it's all about is doing what you have to do to position yourself for the end of the year.''

Before the Talladega race, Harvick was slipping in the standings, while Johnson was steadily climbing. Both posted high finishes in Sunday's race at Talladega, securing their spots in the top 10. As well as they've run in recent years, Busch, Johnson and Harvick, the leaders of the young guns of NASCAR, have yet to win a Cup championship. This will be the year that changes.

California Speedway will host two NASCAR Nextel Cup races this year for the first time in the track's short history. When the drivers return in September, the list of top-10 drivers will undoubtedly be different than it is now. Here's a look at the drivers who have been in the top 10, and who will and won't be there when the series returns to California Speedway on Labor Day weekend.

Rusty Wallace won't.

The former Cup champion recently broke a 105-race victory drought and was eighth in points before the Talladega race. But of the three drivers racing for team owner Roger Penske, Wallace was the least likely to be challenging for the championship.

Newman, Wallace's Penske Racing South teammate, is part of the NASCAR youth movement that includes Earnhardt Jr., Busch, Harvick and Johnson. Brendan Gaughan, driver for Penske Jasper Racing, is part of a highly touted rookie class that includes Kasey Kahne, Brian Vickers and Scott Wimmer.

But Wallace was hotter than a head gasket, winning at Martinsville (Va.) Speedway and keeping up with the leaders in the first eight races of the year. As hot as he's been, Wallace's recent run of good finishes will come to an end.

Busch will.

He has the most resources, with four other Cup teams in the Roush Racing stable, and the best track record of drivers in the top 10.

``Well, for us it has been a steady start, nothing spectacular, nothing dismal at all,'' Busch said before the Darlington (S.C.) Raceway race in March. ``We had a great car at Daytona, it was where we were able run with the leaders but had to make an unscheduled stop and that got us for the rest of the race.

``But the crew knew how strong that car was and the two months that went into preparing that car really shined. That led us to Rockingham, where we qualified poorly. We got a bit loose with the new spoiler and tire and we made adjustments for that in Las Vegas where we qualified second. But we had two top-10 finishes in a row with Rockingham and Vegas. And Atlanta, we had a great car at the beginning of the race, just didn't make the right adjustments throughout the race with this new tire.''

Elliott Sadler won't.

The driver for Robert Yates Racing is one of four who has been in the top 10 every week this season. But he is the most likely to fall out.

This was supposed to be the year for Dale Jarrett, the other driver for Robert Yates Racing, to make a resurgence. Instead he has struggled.

It's only a matter of time before the same problems start to hit Sadler.

Harvick will.

He has the most talent of any driver in the top 10, but he is also the most unpredictable. After nine races, though, Harvick has shown a lot of maturity and has yet to blow his proverbial gasket.

``I think we've had an up-and-down season to say the least,'' Harvick said. ``We've struggled a little bit in the beginning part of the races and have seemed to get our cars where they needed to be toward the end of the race. We had a chance to win at Las Vegas and ran out of gas so that was a little disappointing that we didn't get to finish (first) after the way we'd run all day. Other than that, I think Atlanta was our biggest struggle of the year and we missed it there for some reason. I thought we had a really good car in Happy Hour and came back the next morning and couldn't hit anything.

``So, we haven't won a race yet but I think the team's got a lot of promise just for the fact that we can take our cars at the beginning of a race where we feel they're terrible and we've turned them around a couple times and made top fives and top-10 runs out of them. So that's a good sign for a race team.''

Kahne won't.

With the quality of rookies in Cup this year, at least one should be in the top 10 at the end of the season. Kahne, the rookie driver for Evernham Motorsports, got off to a fast start, posting three runner-up finishes and two poles, but he is already losing speed.

``I don't think it (success) hurts the learning curve,'' Kahne said before the Bristol race in March. ``I think it has put maybe a little more pressure on us just because we have run so good early this season and we need to maybe have a little bit higher expectations from the outside. But really I think we set up our same goals, the Raybestos Rookie of the Year and just top tens, top fifteens every weekend, you know, finishing the race and not getting in any wrecks.''

Kahne has slipped in the past couple of races, while rookies Wimmer and Gaughan have shown some promise. Look for Wimmer or Gaughan to make a run at the top 10 before the summer is over.

Johnson will.

He has the most poise and, with his boss, four-time Cup champion Jeff Gordon, perhaps the biggest asset. Gordon has been able to offer Johnson advice on how to handle the demands of driving for a winning team.

``He's been one of the major reasons why I've been able to step into the top division of our sport and be competitive on the track, know how to handle things off the track from the business side, fans, the mental aspect,'' Johnson said. ``When you have somebody that is as humble and as good as Jeff Gordon to pull from and to learn from it's one of the biggest assets I could ever ask for, hope for, on top of driving for Hendrick Motorsports.

``It's really a unique teammate situation in NASCAR. I don't think there's many teams that work as close together, literally where our cars are in the same shop. So it's been a huge asset.''

These three, Busch, Harvick and Johnson, will stay in the top 10 all year and it will be fun to see who comes out on top in the last 10 races.

Of course, if Busch can duplicate what he did a couple of years ago, it won't be much of a chase at all.

CAPTION(S):

5 photos, 2 boxes

Photo:

(1 -- color) no caption (racing cars)

Photo Illustration by Shane Michael Kidder

(2 -- 4) Kurt Busch's prowess on all tracks and should be the favorite in the Nextel Cup Series chase. He's joined by other young guns Kevin Harvick, below left, and Jimmie Johnson, below right.

Associated Press photos

(5) Martin Truex Jr.'s crew celebrates victory in last weekend's Busch Series race in Talladega, Ala.

Kevin Glackmeyer/Associated Press

Box:

(1) BUSCH SERIES STATER BROS. 300 PRESENTED BY GATORADE

(2) WEST SERIES KING TACO 200