2008-2010 Flight Plan for Commercial Aerospace - From Order Frenzy to Delivery Overload?LYON, France -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report related to the worldwide aerospace industry is now available to its catalogue. 2008-2010 flight plan for commercial aerospace - From order frenzy Frenzy Beatlemania term referring to the Beatles’ (rock musicians) immense popularity; manifested by screaming fans in the 1960s. [Pop. Culture: Miller, 172–181] Big Bull Market to delivery overload See information overload and overloading. ? http://www.reportlinker.com/p050587/commercial-aerospace.html Just a few months ago, commercial aircraft deliveries were expected to fall from 2009 onwards on·ward adj. Moving or tending forward. adv. also on·wards In a direction or toward a position that is ahead in space or time; forward. Adv. 1. . Now it is widely expected that the cycle will last until 2010 or 2011. There is high need for new aircraft, while the production remains constrained con·strain tr.v. con·strained, con·strain·ing, con·strains 1. To compel by physical, moral, or circumstantial force; oblige: felt constrained to object. See Synonyms at force. 2. . The resulting shortages mean lengthening lengthening (lengkˑ·the·ning), n the use of various massage or muscle energy techniques to relax and stretch muscle and connective tissue. order books and vindicate aircraft manufacturer plans to increase output rates. But the current massive ordering could result in a delivery overload, that would unlock a sharp fall in the sector. We have analysed the markets in the US, in Europe, in China and India, as well as the leasing companies. We have looked into the current and new programmes on the supply side, to point out what the weakest links are today. Table of content 1. Foundations supporting the current cycle 8 1.1 - Main markets in terms of air traffic 8 1.2 - Main markets by traffic growth 9 Current situation 9 Short-term trends Short-term trend Erratic price movements that last less than three weeks. 9 Long-term trends 11 1.3 - Main markets by in-service fleet 12 1.4 - Main markets by order backlog 13 1.5 - Main markets by airline company profits 13 2. US airlines, what support for the current cycle? 15 2.1 - Attractive profits but question marks over volumes 16 Q2 2006: attractive profits 16 Q3 2006: legacy airlines up, low-cost airlines The following is a list of low cost carriers: Asia Bangladesh
Q4 2006: follow-through of Q3 trend 17 Q1 2007: slowing volumes 17 2.2 - Markedly improved operating conditions 18 Domestic market/international markets 18 Controlled decline in domestic traffic 18 International traffic rising, but growth slowing 19 Domestic capacity falling, load factors at their peak 20 International capacity rising, load factors at their peak 20 Domestic yield: a welcome rebound rebound (rē´bownd), n/v 1. a recovery from illness. n 2. an outbreak of fresh reflex activity after withdrawal of a stimulus rebound adjective 21 International yields 22 Aviation fuel 22 2.3 - Potential for narrowbody orders from North American airlines North American Airlines is an American airline based in New York City, USA. It operates scheduled international services from the USA to Africa and Guyana, as well as domestic and international charter services and wet lease services. Its main base is John F. 23 North American North American named after North America. North American blastomycosis see North American blastomycosis. North American cattle tick see boophilusannulatus. airline orders for short- and medium-haul aircraft 23 Low-cost and legacy carriers - what share of historical delivery figures? 25 Low-cost and legacy carriers - what trends for 2007-2010? 26 What is the long-term potential for legacy carriers? 28 Leading North American airlines by short/medium-haul aircraft fleet 29 Ageing fleets in need of renewal 30 Non-existent order backlogs to trigger new orders 32 Large order books discourage new orders short term 34 2.4 - Widebodies and US airlines 36 North American airlines and widebody aircraft orders 37 Leading US airlines by widebody fleet 38 Orders still to come 38 Airlines already on manufacturers' order books 40 3. European Airlines - solid foundation, but limited growth 42 3.1 - Profits attractive but have probably peaked 42 Q2 2006: tangible improvement 42 Q3 2006: still positive momentum but not as strong as in Q2 43 Q4 2006: still improving 44 Full-year 2006 profits: a mixed but overall positive performance 44 3.2 - Steady growth in traffic 44 Impact of international markets 44 Steady growth of European airlines' international traffic 45 Comparatively steady growth in European domestic traffic 46 Passenger load factors at their peak 46 3.3 - Widebody aircraft and European airlines 47 European airlines' order backlogs for widebodies 47 Main European airlines by widebody fleet 49 Short-term requirements of certain major airlines 49 Other major airlines have longer-term requirements 51 Smaller airlines: a source of future growth 52 3.4 - Narrowbody aircraft Noun 1. narrowbody aircraft - a commercial airliner with a single aisle narrow-body, narrow-body aircraft airliner - a commercial airplane that carries passengers and European airlines 52 The main European airlines in terms of narrowbody orders 53 Main European airlines by short- and medium-haul aircraft fleet 54 Ageing fleets and thin or non-existent order books 55 Recent fleets 58 Mixed fleets 59 Smaller airlines : a growth driver, but not the main one 60 Low-cost airlines account for the majority of the backlog 60 4. Chinese airlines - supporting the market at a high level 61 4.1 - Mixed profits performance points to further restructuring restructuring - The transformation from one representation form to another at the same relative abstraction level, while preserving the subject system's external behaviour (functionality and semantics). 62 Mixed profits performance 62 Still-changing market structure 62 4.2 - Narrowbodies and Chinese airlines 64 Leading Chinese airlines by narrowbody orders 65 Leading Chinese airlines by short-and medium-haul aircraft fleet 66 Well-filled order books but never enough 67 New entrants into Chinese market 70 4.3 - Widebodies and Chinese airlines 71 Leading Chinese airlines by widebody orders 71 Leading Chinese airlines by widebody fleet 72 Limited potential for new orders in the short term 73 5. Airlines in India - a source of growth and risk 76 5.1 - Strong traffic growth, but risky financial position 76 Accelerating growth in domestic market 76 Indian airline balance sheets are weakening weak·en tr. & intr.v. weak·ened, weak·en·ing, weak·ens To make or become weak or weaker. weak  en·er n. 78
5.2 - Narrowbodies and Indian airlines Indian Airlines Limited or Indian (Hindi: इंडियन एयरलाइंस लिमिटेड or इंडियन 79 Leading Indian airlines by narrowbody orders 79 Leading Indian airlines by narrowbody fleet 80 Thin order book 80 Already well-filled order books could be topped up towards end of decade 81 Already well-filled order books 82 5.3 - Widebodies and Indian airlines 83 Leading Indian airlines by orders and by widebody fleet 83 Air India's existing fleet undergoing renewal 84 Two airlines with significant order books to build their fleets 84 Airlines with small fleets and no aircraft on order 85 6. Aircraft leasing companies: the tide is turning for deliveries to the leading Airbus & Boeing customer segment 86 6.1 - Main leasing companies 87 6.2 - Leasers have provided solid support for deliveries in recent years 88 6.3 - Sharp fall in deliveries to leasers from 2008 89 ILFC ILFC International Lease Finance Corporation ILFC International Lunar Finance Commission (TV show: Space: 1999) order book deliveries to drop off sharply from 2008 89 GECAS GECAS General Electric Commercial Aviation Services deliveries also to decline from 2008 89 6.4 - Geographic sensitivity to risk 90 Geographic breakdown of ILFC revenues 90 Geographic breakdown of CIT n. 1. A citizen; an inhabitant of a city; a pert townsman; - used contemptuously. Which past endurance sting the tender cit. - Emerson. assets 91 Geographic breakdown of AerCap revenues 92 Geographic breakdown of Airbuses delivered by leasers 93 7. On the supply side 95 7.1 - Aircraft manufacturers endeavouring to increase already-stretched production capacity 95 7.1.1 - An exceptionally large order backlog 95 7.1.2 - Planned acceleration of production rates 96 2007-2008 production programme 96 No downturn Downturn The transition point between a rising, expanding economy to a falling, contracting one. downturn A decline in security prices or economic activity following a period of rising or stable prices or activity. expected in 2009 as production capacity remains stretched 97 Planned acceleration in production rates 97 Orders for 500 narrowbodies to be filled by end-2009 to meet planned upsurge 98 7.1.3 - Risk factors associated with production 98 Supply chain 98 Industrial unrest industrial unrest n (BRIT) → agitación f obrera industrial unrest n (Brit) → agitation sociale, conflits sociaux at Airbus 99 7.1.4 - B787's entry into service 99 Probable delays 99 A second assembly line of little help for the moment 101 A healthy and highly-diverse order backlog 101 7.1.5 - The very special case of the A380 103 Production delays and output rates 103 Order backlog and long-term production programme 103 7.2 - Aircraft leasing rates confirm the market's current healthy state 105 7.2.1 - Narrowbodies: continued strong demand exerting upward pressure on rates 105 7.2.2 - Widebodies: the market peaking at an equilibrium point In mathematics, the point  is an equilibrium point for the differential equation7.3 - Outlook for replacing A320s and B737s 107 7.3.1 - Key role of engine manufacturers and planned projects 108 Engines on existing narrowbodies 108 Planned overhauls of existing architectures 109 Radically new architectures 111 7.3.2 - Design office capacity and choices between aircraft manufacturer projects 112 7.3.3 - Financing-related constraints CONSTRAINTS - A language for solving constraints using value inference. ["CONSTRAINTS: A Language for Expressing Almost-Hierarchical Descriptions", G.J. Sussman et al, Artif Intell 14(1):1-39 (Aug 1980)]. affecting Airbus 114 Effects of A380 delays 114 Public-sector support for R&D 115 7.3.4 - The role played by new sector entrants 116 Brazil: developing steadily and a worthwhile partner for Airbus 116 Russia: ambitions incompatible incompatible adj. 1) inconsistent. 2) unmatching. 3) unable to live together as husband and wife due to irreconcilable differences. In no-fault divorce states, if one of the spouses desires to end the marriage, that fact proves incompatibility, and a divorce with a European partnership? 117 China: future competition that needs to be channelled into partnerships 120 Japan: structural links with Boeing 123 More market research reports? Go to http://www.reportlinker.com http://www.reportlinker.com/Rss/en/index.htm http://www.reportlinker.com/Rss/fr/index.htm http://blog.reportlinker.com |
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