2007 SHAPING UP AS SOLID YEAR FOR HOUSING.Byline: GREGORY J. WILCOX Wilcox may refer to: Place names in the United States
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This year began with 50 percent of the local real estate market (sales) in a time warp time warp n. A hypothetical discontinuity or distortion occurring in the flow of time that would move events from one time period to another or suspend the passage of time. . The proof is both behind and ahead of us. For example, by last April sales of single-family houses had fallen below the year-ago level for six consecutive months. Most would say that this is a trend. The sales totals for those months looked a lot like the first half of 1997. And that led me to believe that 2006 would look a lot like 1997, a fact noted in my April 7 column. During an interview at that time, Jim Link, executive vice president of the Van Nuys-based Southland south·land or South·land n. A region in the south of a country or an area. south  land·er n.Noun 1. Regional Association of Realtors, agreed with that assumption. It looks like the final numbers for 2006 will find that earlier assessment a bit generous. In 1997 the market was at the tail end of a horrible slump Slump A temporary fall in performance, often describing consistently falling security prices for several weeks or months. and that year ended with 1,152 single-family home sales for a full-year total of 11,545 transactions. That's not a bad year. Last year sales counts were well under their year-ago level every month and that trend is expected to continue for a while. For the first 11 months of 2006 there were 8,826 sales, 1,567 fewer than for the sale period of 1997. And sales now are on a much different growth path than back them. If they fall in December by the same 22.5 percent margin as in November, then 2006 will end up with 9,026 transactions. And that will look a lot like the 1995 Valley market. Predictions are risky business, though. At the end of 2005, the California California (kăl'ĭfôr`nyə), most populous state in the United States, located in the Far West; bordered by Oregon (N), Nevada and, across the Colorado River, Arizona (E), Mexico (S), and the Pacific Ocean (W). Association of Realtors predicted sales would fall 2 percent in 2006. By June the association's economists expanded their outlook to a 16.8 percent decline. By November, deputy chief economist The Chief Economist is a single position job class having primary responsibility for the development, coordination, and production of economic and financial analysis. It is distinguished from the other economist positions by the broader scope of responsibility encompassing the Robert Kleinhenz anticipated a 23 percent sales decline for 2006. The other half of the market, prices, seem to be flattening
The flattening, ellipticity, or oblateness of an oblate spheroid is the "squashing" of the spheroid's pole, down towards its equator. out, albeit at a high level. When the sales decline started in October 2006, the median price of a Valley house was $600,000. It was $595,000, or 2.5 percent less than a year ago, in November. But last June, it hit a record $625,000. So over the past 14 months, prices stayed basically flat while sales fell off a cliff. This doesn't surprise Daniel Blake, director of the San Fernando Valley San Fernando Valley Valley, southern California, U.S. Northwest of central Los Angeles, the valley is bounded by the San Gabriel, Santa Susana, and Santa Monica mountains and the Simi Hills. Economic Research Center at California State University, Northridge CSUN offers a variety of programs leading to bachelor's degrees in 61 fields and master's degrees in 42 fields. The university has over 150,000 alumni. It's also home to a summer musical theater/theater program known as TADW (TeenAge Drama Workshop) that leads teenagers through an . Unlike the early 1990s, the Valley and Southern California Southern California, also colloquially known as SoCal, is the southern portion of the U.S. state of California. Centered on the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego, Southern California is home to nearly 24 million people and is the nation's second most populated region, economies are on firm ground and expected to continue growing for the next several years. Interest rates have been rising, but that's balanced out by a good outlook on the jobs front. People are not leaving their jobs and dumping dumping, selling goods at less than the normal price, usually as exports in international trade. It may be done by a producer, a group of producers, or a nation. houses on the market, which happened in the early 1990s. ``Over time more people will have to move as they transfer and retire. But they don't have to now and certainly (not) in enough numbers to prompt a drop in prices, which would increase sales,'' Blake said. So for now, it looks like prices will stay in the present, with sales definitely taking a step back into the past. More forecasting The California Building Industry Association released its 2007 forecast last week, and it calls for construction to remain at a ``normal'' level. This means it won't be robust enough to meet demand, despite a sales slump. The association's chief economist Alan Nevin predicts that housing starts for single-family homes, condominiums, and apartments should total between 155,000 and 170,000 this year, about the same or slightly lower than in 2006. It will still be a solid year, though. ``Keep this year's forecast in perspective -- we are returning to a normal market,'' Nevin said. ``Producing 155,000 to 170,000 units will be more than any year from 1991 to 2001 and could exceed production levels from 1990 and 2002 as well.'' Nevin expects production will be especially low in the first quarter as builders finish the process of selling excess inventory. Construction should pick up later in the year, but builders will keep pace with demand. ``We need to be building about 240,000 new homes, condos and apartments a year to meet the need for housing. The problem is that we need new homes in all price ranges, and given the ever-rising fees and constraints CONSTRAINTS - A language for solving constraints using value inference. ["CONSTRAINTS: A Language for Expressing Almost-Hierarchical Descriptions", G.J. Sussman et al, Artif Intell 14(1):1-39 (Aug 1980)]. on housing, it's all but impossible to meet the need in the entry-level market, where the need's the greatest,'' Nevin said in the forecast. It calls for: Construction of 110,000 to 120,000 houses. Construction of 45,000 to 55,000 apartments and condominiums. greg.wilcox(at)dailynews.com (818) 713-3743 |
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