2005 hurricane season launches early.Forecasters predicted this year's hurricane season would be an active one, and with five named storms STORMS - Standard Oil Spill Response Management System, including two hurricanes by mid-July, the season definitely has gotten off to an active start. "Four named storms in the first five weeks of the hurricane season has never happened since we've begun keeping records of hurricanes,'" Mark Hanna, spokesman for the Insurance Council of Texas, said in a statement July 11. The fourth storm and first hurricane, Dennis, hit the Florida Panhandle and the Alabama coast on July 10. That storm was heralded earlier in the week by Tropical Storm Cindy, which came ashore in Louisiana with 70 mph winds and heavy rains. Before Cindy, came Tropical Storm Bret on June 29, which degraded into a tropical depression before hitting Mexico. The first named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Arlene, came ashore June 13 near Pensacola, Fla., with 60 mph winds. The fifth storm and second hurricane, Emily, was heading toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as of July 15. The active season, according to the hurricane forecast team at Colorado State University, is due to favorable hurricane conditions in the Atlantic Ocean caused by fluctuations in water temperature and salinity. When circulation is strong, the conditions for hurricanes become more favorable. The Colorado team predicted a "well above-average" hurricane season with 15 named Atlantic basin storms between June 1 and Nov. 30, with eight becoming hurricanes and four developing into "major" storms--those in categories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale. The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration is forecasting between 12 and 15 Atlantic tropical storms, with between seven and nine of those becoming hurricanes and three to five becoming major hurricanes, with a 70% chance the hurricane season will be "above normal." The Tropical Storm Risk consortium is predicting 14 tropical storms, with eight becoming hurricanes and lout Lout - Lout is a batch text formatting system and an embedded language by Jeffrey H. Kingston Lout features equation formatting, tables, diagrams, rotation and scaling, sorted indexes, bibliographic databases, running headers and odd-even pages and automatic cross-referencing. By comparison, the 2004 season saw 15 named storms, nine hurricanes and six intense hurricanes The long-term average is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes a year. California-based catastrophe-modeling firm Eqecat Inc. is predicting a one-in-three chance of large hurricane losses in the United States this hurricane season. Eqecat said the season's forecast is very similar to the forecast for 12 other years since 1950, of which tour seasons resulted in large losses: 1954, with three "severe and costly storms"; 1969, with one severe hurricane; 1980, with one; and 1989, with one major landfalling hurricane--Hugo. According to David Smith, director of Eqecat s research group, a repeat of 1954's hurricane season with today's population would cause "total losses exceeding $50 billion." 1989's Hugo could cause about $8 billion, depending on the areas hit, he said. Storm Snapshot U.S. Landfall: July 10, 2005 Santa Rosa Island Santa Rosa Island, narrow barrier beach between the Gulf of Mexico and Santa Rosa Sound, NW Fla. in the vicinity of Pensacola, extending c.50 mi (80 km) parallel to the coast. It is the site of Fort Pickens and of a missile-launching station. The island is also a resort area., Fla. Size: Category 3 Windspeed at Landfall: 120 mph Forward Speed: 17 mph Storm Surge storm surge: see under storm.: 10-15 feet Hurricane Force Winds 40 miles from center Tropical Storm Force Winds: 230 miles from center Death Toll: at least 22 (United States and Caribbean) |
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