2003 BUSINESS: HOUSING PRICES ARE FLYING HIGH HOME SALES IN L.A. DEFIED GRAVITY.

Byline: Gregory J. Wilcox Staff Writerd

This year brought record housing prices and sales, depending on who is doing the counting from the latter perspective.

The Southland Regional Association of Realtors, which covers the San Fernando and Santa Clarita valleys, expects this to be the second or third best year for sales.

Market tracker DataQuick Information Systems predicted a sales record for Southern California when the October numbers - the most recent available at deadline - came in.

And the California Association of Realtors said that 2003 would set a sales record statewide based on the strength of its third-quarter numbers.

A year ago, when economists and analysts issued forecasts for this year, it sounded a lot like the one they issued for 2002. Sales and prices were expected to soften. Sales would soften and the rate of price appreciation would slow.

Didn't happen. Interest rates hit record lows and didn't move much, and demand continue to outpace supply.

``Most analysts underestimated how strong demand would be,'' said DataQuick analyst John Karevoll. ``We thought the surge of activity we had the last couple of years would have satisfied demand, but that hasn't been the case.''

Here's what the market looked like at the end of October.

--Through October, San Fernando Valley consumers had purchased 11,585 previously owned single-family homes. Pending escrows suggest the final count will be close to the 2002 total of 13,863 sales, the second-best volume ever. In 10 months, the total is close to all of 2001, 2000 and 1999.

October's median price soared an annual 24 percent to $395,000, just $5,000 under the August record of $400,000.

The median price has been above $300,000 for 18 consecutive months.

--By the end of October in the Santa Clarita Valley, the single-family sales total was just 75 units short of last year's record the 3,275 sales and 101 sales shy of the 1,676 condominium record.

The median price for a single-family home in October was $398,000, an annual increase of 17.4 percent.

--In Ventura County, the median price at the end of October was $401,000, an annual increase of 21 percent, and sales increased an annual 7.3 percent to 1,617 units, according to DataQuick. Their survey includes new and previously owned single-family homes and condominiums.

--In the Antelope Valley at the end of October, the median price has soared an annual 23.5 percent to $168,720 and sales increased 18.3 percent, according to the state Realtors association.

Jim Link, executive vice president of the Van Nuys-based Southland association, said that the market defied gravity this year.

``This is going to be one of the top years,'' he said of sales.

And Karevoll thinks things will cool in 2004. Sales will ease back, and the rate of appreciation is expected to retreat from the current 20 percent range to 12 percent in the Los Angeles County area and 10 percent in Ventura County.

But it's still going to be a seller's market.

``This 20 percent stuff is not sustainable, no matter how you look at it,'' Karevoll said. ``(But) I don't know of any analyst out there that predicts a decrease in prices over the next couple of years, only the appreciation rates.''

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Photo:

A large crowd of prospective condo buyers gathers behind a balloon arch in anticipation of the grand opening and purchase opportunity in Simi Valley's Sycamore Shade Project. Many people had camped in front of the site all week to gain priority in line.

Andy Holzman/Staff Photographer