2003: THE SUMMER OF THE BIG-BUDGET SEQUEL.

Byline: Greg Hernandez Staff Writer

``The Matrix Reloaded'' has the potential to be the summer's biggest sensation, but Keanu Reeves and company will be competing for box office supremacy with more than a dozen other sequels ranging from Arnold Schwarzenegger's return in ``Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines'' to Cameron Diaz, Drew Barrymore and Lucy Liu donning halos again in ``Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle.''

The films are among the 16 sequels hitting the nation's multiplexes this summer. They join a host of big-budget action films, comic book adaptations and star vehicles that Hollywood hopes will reverse what has been largely a lackluster year at the box office.

The May 2 debut of ``X2: X-Men United'' kicks off the movie industry's most lucrative season, an intensely competitive period when major studios pull out all the marketing stops to promote a steady stream of high-profile and often big-budgeted releases bowing each weekend through Labor Day.

``Summer is the greatest opportunity to recoup the investment the studios have made in these films,'' said box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations Co. ``Summer just presents the broadest possible audience with the most available time to go to movies.''

The summer of 2003 has a mighty hard act to follow after the record summer the movie industry enjoyed last year. Movies like ``Spider-Man,'' ``Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones'' and ``Signs'' led a blistering box office charge that resulted in $3.8 million in ticket sales for the 18-week period spanning from early May through Labor Day weekend.

But after going on to impressively shatter the single-year record with $9.4 million in domestic grosses in 2002, movie attendance has slowed considerably so far this year. ``Bringing Down the House,'' ``How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days'' and ``Daredevil'' are the only $100 million-grossing hits so far. ``Anger Management'' is expected to join that list this weekend in a movie season otherwise noted for tepid reception or a quick demise.

Some have been quick to blame the war with Iraq for the attendance slump, but others have pointed to a mostly lackluster slate of movies in recent months that have the domestic box office running 7 percent behind last year in revenue and 10 percent behind in attendance.

``I think moviegoers have felt a little underserved this year, and that has been reflected in the downturn in the grosses,'' Dergarabedian said. ``But the slow first quarter may help the summer box office. Audiences are champing at the bit to see some movies that are really going to excite them.''

The official summer season has traditionally begun Memorial Day weekend and run through Labor Day weekend. But in recent years, studios have begun to unveil blockbusters in early May to take advantage of a wider open playing field.

Last year, Sony released ``Spider-Man'' on May 4, and the film went on to shatter a slew of box office records, including having the biggest opening weekend in history: $114.8 million. This year, 20th Century Fox will attempt to jump-start summer in a similar fashion with ``X2.''

`` 'X2: X-Men United' is going to have that huge monster opening weekend, and then we'll have 'Daddy Day Care,' 'Bruce Almighty' and 'Finding Nemo,' which are going to be real powerhouses and exceed all expectations,'' said Robert Bucksbaum, president of ReelSource Inc., a box office analysis firm.

``Daddy Day Care'' and ``Bruce Almighty'' bring Eddie Murphy and Jim Carrey, respectively, back in the kinds of comedic vehicles that have been successful for them in the past, while ``Finding Nemo'' is Disney's major animated summer release, geared toward a family audience.

Other big names to headline major summer movies include Harrison Ford in ``Hollywood Homicide,'' Johnny Depp in ``Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl'' and Nicolas Cage in ``Matchstick Men.''

The other summer sequels include ``Bad Boys II,'' ``Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde,'' ``2 Fast 2 Furious,'' ``Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life,'' ``Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over,'' and ``American Wedding,'' the third in the series of ``American Pie'' films.

``It's the summer of the sequel,'' said Dergarabedian. ``It's a chicken-and-the-egg thing. Do studios create the sequels and shove them down people's throats or does the audience vote with their dollars and show that they love sequels and therefore the studios create more?''

Nonsequel films with major acting pedigrees include ``Down With Love,'' starring Renee Zellweger and Ewan McGregor; ``The Italian Job,'' starring Mark Wahlberg and Edward Norton; ``Alex and Emma,'' starring Luke Wilson and Kate Hudson; and ``The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen,'' starring Sean Connery.

Bucksbaum points to other films that have breakout potential, including ``The In-Laws,'' a comedy remake starring Michael Douglas and Albert Brooks that will bow Memorial Day weekend, and ``Seabiscuit,'' a July 25 drama about an equine racing champion and the jockey (Tobey Maguire) who rides him.

``Not much is expected of those, and those are the films that are going to do a significant amount of business,'' Bucksbaum predicted. ``Everything else is geared to the popcorn crowds. The true sleeper hits will be for the adult date crowds.''

While last summer's stellar numbers would seem to be impossible to match, box office experts point out that there were only seven sequels last summer compared with 16 in 2003, and the roster of what seem to be sure-fire hits is every bit as impressive.

``I'd be surprised if it didn't exceed last summer,'' Bucksbaum said. ``This year, 'Spider-Man' will be 'The Matrix Reloaded'' and everything else balances out.''

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SOURCE: Exhibitor Relations Co.