2002 Target Term Trust Inc. -- Second Quarter Commentary.NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 12, 1999-- 2002 Target Term Trust Inc. (NYSE NYSE See: New York Stock Exchange : TTR TTR Transthyretin TTR Ticket To Ride (World Snowboard Tour) TTR Transformer Turns Ratio (electric power transmission and distribution) TTR Time To Repair TTR Time to Read ) is a closed-end management investment company investing in high quality fixed-income and adjustable-rate securities. The second quarter of 1999 proved challenging for the bond markets. Treasury yields rose sharply and the overall market suffered losses as spreads (the difference in yield or income that securities must pay to compensate for the additional risk) over Treasurys widened. Interest rate increases were concentrated in May following the CPI (1) (Characters Per Inch) The measurement of the density of characters per inch on tape or paper. A printer's CPI button switches character pitch. (2) (Counts Per I report (reflecting rising oil prices) and subsequent fears of near-term Federal Reserve tightening. The Fed did, in fact, raise the federal funds rate Federal Funds Rate The interest rate at which a depository institution lends immediately available funds (balances at the Federal Reserve) to another depository institution overnight. by 0.25% at quarter-end and announced a neutral stance. The yield on the 30-year bond spiked to 6.25% before falling back to close the quarter just under 6%. On average, Treasury yields rose 50 basis points (0.50%) across the coupon curve and the front end of the yield curve (overnight to two-year maturities) steepened. In a reversal of the post-crisis trend, spreads widened across most non-Treasury sectors; that is, yields on non-Treasury securities rose faster than on similar-duration Treasurys. The underperformance of non-Treasurys was accelerated by both fundamental factors (fears of rising interest rates, widening swap spreads) and technical factors (increased issuance, the approach of quarter-end), and predictably coincided with episodes of deterioration in the Treasury market. The investment-grade sectors -- agency, asset-backed, corporate and mortgage-backed -- each widened approximately 10 basis points (0.10%) during the quarter. Non-investment grade sectors--high-yield and emerging market debt -- closed the quarter slightly narrower than at the outset despite widening sharply in May. The Trust underperformed its benchmark due to the spread widening that occurred in the mortgage- and asset-backed securities markets. Most spread products, including mortgage-backed securities Mortgage-backed securities (MSBs) Securities backed by a pool of mortgage loans. , were adversely affected due to liquidity concerns surrounding quarter-end or year-end balance sheet restrictions for many dealers. Heightened sensitivity to current and future monetary policy also increased risk premiums. Portfolio Positioning The Trust maintained a target duration equal to its benchmark. We increased the Fund's exposure to asset-backed securities by 6%; we invested in short-term auto and equipment leasing paper that offered stable cash flow, attractive spreads to the mortgage-backed sector and diversification. Our longer-term strategic allocations to the collateralized mortgage obligation Collateralized mortgage obligation (CMO) A security backed by a pool of pass-through rates , structured so that there are several classes of bondholders with varying maturities, called tranches. , pass-through and adjustable-rate mortgage Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) A mortgage that features predetermined adjustments of the loan interest rate at regular intervals based on an established index. The interest rate is adjusted at each interval to a rate equivalent to the index value plus a predetermined spread, or sectors remained fairly stable. Outlook Despite today's more attractive valuations, our outlook for the U.S. bond markets remains cautious. Although we do not believe the economy is in any danger of overheating Overheating An economy that is growing very quickly, with the risk of high inflation. near-term, we do expect the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate by an additional 0.25% over the next few months. We also expect that uncertainty surrounding new issuance trends and Y2K See Y2K problem and Y2K compliant. Y2K - Year 2000 may intensify investor skittishness skit·tish adj. 1. Moving quickly and lightly; lively. 2. Restlessly active or nervous; restive. 3. Undependably variable; mercurial or fickle. 4. Shy; bashful. and lead to pockets of spread volatility. As a result, we will continue to approach the management of the Trust opportunistically -- reallocating assets only if and when relative value analysis clearly dictates. The commentary reflects our views at the time of this writing. These views may change in response to changing circumstances. |
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