2000 Election Winners: George W. Bush and Online Polling; Harris Interactive Scores Unprecedented 99% Accuracy in Predicting 2000 Election Outcome.Business & Technology Editors ROCHESTER, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 14, 2000 Thirty six days after the votes were cast, the results are now in, and George W. Bush has ascended to the presidency while a second winner has also emerged. Harris Interactive Harris Interactive (NASDAQ: HPOL) is an American market research company that specializes in public opinion research using both telephone and surveys on online panels. The company is the product of a 1996 merger between the Gordon S. Black Company and Louis Harris & Associates. (Nasdaq: HPOL), the global leader in internet-based market research announced it had achieved 99% accuracy (races called correctly or within a +/- 2% of error) in predicting 73 political contests in November. Research Business Report, an industry-leading market research newsletter, has provided the first independent assessment of the accuracy of Harris Interactive in forecasting the recent election. Making a direct comparison between the final Harris Interactive Internet-based poll with the final telephone based polls of other firms, the Research Business Report (November, 2000 edition) concluded:
"In average percentage points, online outperformed phone
polls. Harris (Interactive) was off an average 1.8 points for
Gore and 2.5 for Bush. Phone polling was off 3.9 points on
the average Gore percentage and 4.4 for Bush."
"On the one hand, proponents of online research methods can
breathe a sigh of relief and express thanks to Harris
Interactive. At the same time, Harris (Interactive)'s results
make an indelible impression on behalf of its sometimes
controversial online surveying method, which includes
"propensity weighting" - questioned by some researchers and
derided by others during the last year."
Dr. Gordon S Gordon, river in W Tasmania, Australia, 125 mi (200 km) long. Flowing from mountains to the W coast, its main tributaries are the Franklin and Denison from the N, and Serpentine and Olga to the S. . Black, chairman and CEO (1) (Chief Executive Officer) The highest individual in command of an organization. Typically the president of the company, the CEO reports to the Chairman of the Board. of Harris Interactive commented on the results: "Harris Interactive's national forecast using the Internet Internet Publicly accessible computer network connecting many smaller networks from around the world. It grew out of a U.S. Defense Department program called ARPANET (Advanced Research Projects Agency Network), established in 1969 with connections between computers at the outperformed every survey conducted by telephone while our state by state forecasts were about twice as accurate as the comparable telephone forecasts. We even predicted that Gore would end up with about 200,000 more popular votes than Bush - only about 100,000 off from the official difference of 300,000. The 99% accuracy of the Harris Interactive 2000 election results will stand as the turning point in the use of the Internet as a replacement technology for telephone-based market research. Harris Interactive is the only market research and polling firm that demonstrated in full public view that it has mastered the science of using Internet-based respondents In the context of marketing research, a representative sample drawn from a larger population of people from whom information is collected and used to develop or confirm marketing strategy. to correctly project to the total population." Election 2000 marks the second time that Harris Interactive has used the Internet to outperform Outperform An analyst recommendation meaning a stock is expected to do slightly better than the market return. Notes: Exact definitions vary by brokerage, but in general this rating is better than neutral and worse than buy or strong buy. the telephone in election polling. In 1998, Harris Interactive correctly predicted 21 out of 22 statewide races compared with 17 out of 22 by telephone. Stated Dr. George Terhanian, director of Internet research This article is about using the Internet for research; for the field of research about the Internet, see Internet studies. Internet research is the practice of using the Internet, especially the World Wide Web, for research. at Harris Interactive: "We were even more accurate in 2000 because we continue to perfect the use of propensity weighting, a statistical method that has been used routinely for about 20 years in the educational and medical sectors but infrequently in·fre·quent adj. 1. Not occurring regularly; occasional or rare: an infrequent guest. 2. in others. Harris Interactive has pefected its application to not only election forecasting but to all aspects of Interent-based market research." Methodology This Harris Interactive election study was conducted using only the Internet. From October 30 through November 6, 2000, over 300,000 members of the voting-age population participated in this poll - the largest online election study in history. During the peak of the interviewing, Harris Interactive processed more than 40,000 online interviews per hour, including 7,800 simultaneous interviews. Final data were weighted and tabulated in real-time, using Harris Interactive's proprietary systems. About Harris Interactive Harris Interactive (Nasdaq: HPOL), the global leader in online market research, uses Internet-based and traditional methodologies to provide its clients with information about the views, experiences, behaviors and attitudes of people worldwide. Known for its Harris Poll, Harris Interactive has over 40 years experience in providing its clients with market research and polling services including custom, multi-client and service bureau research, as well as customer relationship management services. Through its U.S. and Global Network offices, Harris Interactive conducts research in more than 100 countries in multiple, localized Translated into the spoken language of the country. See localization. languages. Harris Interactive uses its proprietary technology to survey its database of more than 7 million online panelists. For more information about Harris Interactive, please visit our website at www.harrisinteractive.com. EOE EOE See: European Options Exchange M/F/D/V Safe Harbor Safe Harbor 1. A legal provision to reduce or eliminate liability as long as good faith is demonstrated. 2. A form of shark repellent implemented by a target company acquiring a business that is so poorly regulated that the target itself is less attractive. Statement This media release includes statements that may constitute forward-looking information. We caution you that these forward-looking statements forward-looking statement A projected financial statement based on management expectations. A forward-looking statement involves risks with regard to the accuracy of assumptions underlying the projections. are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed. Additional detailed information concerning a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ is readily available in the "Risk Factors" section of the most recent Annual Report on form 10-K Form 10-K A report required by the SEC from exchange-listed companies that provides for annual disclosure of certain financial information. Form 10-K See 10-K. filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission pursuant to the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. |
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