20-20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World.20-20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World. By Hugh Courtney. Harvard Business School Harvard Business School, officially named the Harvard Business School: George F. Baker Foundation, and also known as HBS, is one of the graduate schools of Harvard University. Press, 207 pages. $29.95. Anyone who wonders whether or not we live in an uncertain world need only look to the events of Sept. 11 and their aftermath. Author Hugh Courtney's focus isn't on terrorism, but on corporate strategy in the face of uncertain outcomes. Essentially, the book tries to structure a response to uncertainty. While it cannot be mastered, it can be better managed, he argues. Courtney, an associate principal with McKinsey & Co., builds the book around four "levels of residual uncertainty": a relatively clear future, with one path; alternate futures In science fiction stories involving time travel, an alternate future or alternative future is a possible future which never comes to pass, typically because someone travels back into the past and alters it so that the events of the alternate future cannot occur. , but with an expected choice of outcomes; a range of futures; and "true ambiguity," in which the strategist doesn't have a clue about how to proceed. From these, he writes, managers can select strategy ranging from a status quo [Latin, The existing state of things at any given date.] Status quo ante bellum means the state of things before the war. The status quo to be preserved by a preliminary injunction is the last actual, peaceable, uncontested status which preceded the pending controversy. approach to increasing levels of hedging, insurance and diversification. 20-20 Foresight is largely a theoretical book, sprinkled with real-life examples drawn from companies like Merck & Co., Cisco Systems “Cisco” redirects here. For other uses, see Cisco (disambiguation). Cisco System,Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO, HKSE: 4333 ) is an American multinational corporation with 54,000 employees and annual revenue of US $28.48 billion as of 2006. and Enron. At Merck, for example, the use of option-valuation tools has been a big boon in managing its research and development portfolio -- an approach he attributes to CFO See Chief Financial Officer. Judy Lewent Judith C. Lewent was, until July 2007, the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Merck, one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. She received her high school diploma at Hunter College High School, her B.S. , Courtney is a good writer, which keeps the book moving along nicely, and some compelling charts and flow diagrams help sharpen its message. Those willing to tackle a tough subject should find 20-20 Foresight well worth the effort. |
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