1996 SR consumption totaled 9.6 kt IISRP forecasts 10.8 kt in 2001.

The International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers predicted worldwide synthetic rubber (SR) consumption will increase by 12% to 10.8 kt (thousand metric tons). SR consumption should average a moderate growth rate of 2.2% per annum over the period.

In 1996 worldwide consumption of SR increased by 1.6% to 9,644 kt. In 1997 it is forecast to increase at the same rate to 9,803 kt.

"Latin America and Central Europe experienced the strongest growth in 1996, climbing by 9% and 8% respectively," Britt D. Theismann, IISRP information and systems director, said. "Consumption in Latin America increased from 572 kt to 623 kt, and in Central Europe from 291 kt to 314 kt," he added.

Other regions also experienced significant growth in 1996. China continued its strong rate of growth, increasing by at least 7%. (Some estimates have indicated growth closer to 10% in recent years.) The Middle East and Africa increased from 165 kt to 173 kt for a growth rate of almost 5%.

Of the three larger regions of the world, North America and the Far East experienced modest growth in 1996 while Western Europe declined 1.6%, falling from 2,311 kt to 2,273 kt.

Many factors are responsible for the decrease in Western Europe. Among them: relocation of some tire production to Central Europe, a slowdown in automotive production, and a general softening in the macro economic situation. SR consumption growth continued in North America in 1996, rising from 2,962 kt to 3,027 kt for an increase of 2.2%. In the Far East, SR rose by 1.9% from 2,165 kt to 2,207 kt.

"SR consumption fell in the Commonwealth of Independent States in 1996 as the economic situation there worsened," said Theismann. "1995 saw a dramatic increase in SR, which was predicted to continue in 1996. However, several factors caused the recovery to halt in 1996. One of the major problems for the SR industry in the CIS is their rapidly escalating energy cost."

1996 saw growth in many elastomer types. Ethylene propylene rubber (EPR, both EPM and EPDM) increased by 3.4% to 708 kt. Polybutadiene rubber (BR) followed at 2.7% for total consumption of 1,624 kt. Acrylonitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) continued to be a workhorse in the auto industry, increasing by 2% to 290 kt.

Apart from BR, other tire elastomers increased at lower rates of growth. Styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) rose at a rate of 1.6%, from 2,864 kt to 2,909 kt.

Other synthetic rubbers, made of predominantly polyisoprene (JR) and butyl rubbers (IIR), increased marginally at 0.4% from 1,339 kt to 1,344 kt in 1996. Polychloroprene rubber (CR) fell by 2.1% from 262 kt to 256 kt.

All regions are expected to show gains in SR consumption over the coming five-year period. "Although uncertain, the SR industry in the CIS is optimistically forecasting SR consumption to increase at an annual average rate of almost 6% over the five-year period, from 472 kt to 629 kt in the year 2001," Theismann said. Growth in China is predicted by the Institute to continue at rates between 7-10% to nearly 800 kt in 2001. In the Far East (Asia and Oceania, excluding China, North Korea and Vietnam) SR consumption is forecast to increase at a rate of 2% from 2,207 kt in 1996 to 2,445 kt in 2001.

As some Western European tire production continues to relocate to Central Europe, SR consumption is predicted to increase at an annual rate of almost 4% from 314 kt in 1996 to 376 kt in 2001. Western Europe is therefore expected to experience moderate growth, increasing from 2,273 kt in 1996 to 2,432 kt in 2001 at an annual rate of 1.4%. SR consumption growth in the Middle East and Africa is forecast to increase from 173 kt in 1996 to 208 kt in 2001 at a rate of almost 4%.

In the Americas, Latin America is predicted to increase at an annual rate of 3% from 623 kt in 1996 to 719 kt in 2001. Following a fifth year of growth, North America is predicted to grow at a more moderate rate of 1% from 3,027 kt in 1996 to 3,184 kt in 2001.

According to forecasts, over the next five years all elastomer types will experience growth. BR should reach 1,854 kt in 2001, with an annual average growth rate of 2.7%. SBR is predicted to reach 3,161 kt in 2001 and experience an annual average growth rate of 1.7%. EPDM should reach 792 kt in 2001, with a 2.3% rise per annum. Also increasing at 2.3% is NBR, which should reach 325 kt in 2001. CR is expected to increase at a 1% rate, reaching 270 kt in 2001.

The IISRP also forecasts that consumption of NR over the five-year term should experience an annual average growth rate of 2.4%. Higher than normal NR growth rates are expected to occur in Central Europe and the CIS. In W. Europe and N. America, NR consumption is expected to remain flat around 972 kt and 1,102 kt respectively. In the Far East, it should increase at a 1.5% rate to 2,601 kt in 2001.

The IISRP views thermoplastic elastomers (TPEs) as a "below-the-line" item in its long-term forecast. World wide use of TPEs is expected to increase from 920 kt in 1996 to 1,203 kt in 2001, reflecting an overall increase of 31% or an annual average growth rate of 5.5%. Consumption of TPEs in Latin America is expected to expand annually by 4.9% to 17 kt and by 6.9% to 578 kt in North America. TPE consumption in Western Europe should increase at an annual rate of 4.2% to 387 kt in the year 2001. Asia and Oceania are expected to register an annual average increase of 3.1% to 187 kt by 2001.

The annual forecast is based on worldwide industry data compiled by the Institute's regional statistical committees.

                 Global rubber consumption through 2001

                   1996               1997                   2001

                 SR       NR        SR       NR         SR        NR

North America   3,027   1,085     3,047    1,083      3,184    1,102
Western Europe  2,273     948     2,292      959      2,432      972
Asia & Oceania  2,207   2,415     2,256    2,451      2,445    2,601
Latin America     623     281       649      291        719      331
Middle East &
Africa            173     198       177      203        208      219
Central Europe    314      88       317       88        376      130
Commonwealth of
Independent
States            472      50       472       50        629       85
China/Asia
CPEC              555     919       594      983        780    1,290
Total           9,644   5,984     9,803    6,109     10,772    6,730

SR figures exclude TPEs; NR figures exclude consumption by producing
countries
                      New rubber consumption by type

Product                 1995         1996        1997           2001

SBR solid              2,864        2,909       2,926          3,161
SBR latex                365          365         368            381
Carboxylated latex     1,557        1,554       1,583          1,700
Polybutadiene          1,581        1,624       1,662          1,854
Ethylene propylene       685          708         721            792
Polychloroprene          262          256         257            270
Nitrile solid            285          290         296            325
Nitrile latex             38           38          38             39
Other synthetics       1,339        1,344       1,357          1,470
China/Asia CPEC
total SR                 519          555         594            780
Total synthetic
rubber                 9,493        9,644       9,803         10,772
Natural rubber         5,797        5,984       6,109          6,730
Total new rubber      15,290       15,629      15,912         17,502
Synthetic percent      62.1%        61.7%       61.6%          61.5%
TPEs                     873          920         969          1,203