100 million AIDS orphans by 2010? (Child & Family).

SION, SWITZERLAND -- The number of children orphaned worldwide because of AIDS could reach 100 million by 2010, far greater than the official estimates of between 26.4 million and 44 million.

That is the conclusion of a study published by researcher Neil Monk for the Association Francois-Xavier Bagnoud. Using research he conducted in Uganda and India, Monk said current statistics on AIDS orphans exclude significant groups, including:

* paternal orphans--children whose fathers have died--even though this is the largest group,

* the 15 to 18 year age group,

* India, Somalia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Paternal orphans are considered statistically difficult to count, Monk said. Besides finding it easier to link children with their biological mothers, statisticians cannot be sure whether the father is deceased or simply absent.

Monk argued, however, that either of those conditions could have the same effect on the child's welfare. In addition, he said, some children, especially in patrilinear societies, are not cared for by their mothers even though the mother may be alive and well.

When it comes to defining orphans by age--that is, under the age of 15--Monk said his research in Uganda and India found that orphanhood can often extend the period of dependency for a child.

His own projections suggest that AIDS orphaning is a pandemic in and of itself that could exceed the number of people afflicted with the disease, Monk said. Underreporting may be one reason that the crisis has failed to grab the necessary attention for mobilizing adequate resources in support of the children affected, he said.

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