08 THINGS BOUND TO HAPPEN.

Byline: Steve Dilbeck

1. THE SHOW OF A LIFETIME!

Or at least until the next Olympics opening ceremony.

China wants to put on an international spectacle like no nation since Germany in 1936. And nothing gets the spotlight quite like the opening ceremony.

This one will take place in Beijing's National Stadium, affectionately called the Bird's Nest for its crisscrossed architectural exterior.

China has guarded its opening ceremony plans with its typical paranoia. Alas, that sneaky film crew from the Seoul Broadcasting System secretly filmed a dress rehearsal. But, hey, China did support the North in the Korean War.

China was, surprise, outraged. It's launched an investigation. And good luck to SBS covering the rest of the games.

Anyway, look for plenty of colorful costumes, floating 3Dhumpback whales, kung fu fighters (sans the wires) and trapeze gymnasts.

It will be the greatest ever, until London in 2012.

2. A JAMAICAN WILL RULE

Ah, the glamour event of the Olympics. World's fastest man.

There was a time when the U.S. owned the men's 100 meters, winning gold in 13 of the first 17 modern Olympics in the events and giving us classic names like Jesse Owens, Bob Hayes and Carl Lewis.

The U.S. has a serious threat this time around in world champion Tyson Gay, who set an American record in the trials at 9.77. Trouble is, he came up lame in the 200 with the bane of all sprinters, a hamstring pull.

It was judged to be a mild injury, but Gay decided to pass on the July 24 London Grand Prix meet, in which he had planned to test his leg, and will be an uncertain performer in China.

Meanwhile, a pair of Jamaicans have been taking turns beating each other in record times. Look for Asafa Powell to be edged by current world-record holder UsainBolt.

3. SHE'LL STEAL YOUR HEART

And then six months later you won't remember her name.

Every Olympics has some pixie that 99.9 percent of America didn't know before the Games, who suddenly becomes an overnight sensation.

This typically means women's -- and we use that term loosely -- gymnastics.

The best candidate this time is U.S. gymnast Shawn Johnson, 16, the current world all-around champion. She's from Des Moines, Iowa, attends public school, is cute and writes poetry.

"I feel I have so much to say, I don't know where to start," she said.

Did we mention she's 16?

She's huge in gymnastic circles, but America is about to get a major introduction, particularly if she's able to hold off the Chinese and take the gold.

Even if she does, that's no guarantee of lasting fame. They can't all become Mary Lou Retton. An American girl won the all-around in Athens, but how many truly remember Carly Patterson?

4. BILLION-DOLLAR ELECTRONIC BUTT-KISSING

Perhaps you've heard, but the Chinese are a tad sensitive as to how they're portrayed. They've gone to great lengths and tremendous expense to use the Olympics as an international proving ground to demonstrate it's a modern super power.

China is trying to orchestrate its image as best it can, but has never had to deal with depth of international media descending upon Beijing.

No media outlet is as significant to China as NBC and how it broadcasts the Games to its biggest buyer, America.

Best bet: NBC will give something dramatically less than its most balanced coverage. It's not in the network's interest to tick off the thin-skinned Chinese, so all the pre-Olympic hubbub over human rights, air pollution and media freedoms figure to get passing coverage from NBC.

Expect plenty of glamorous shots of the Wall of China and the Imperial Palace, and precious few of those protest zones.

5. THE WORLD WILL RETURN TO ITS PROPER AXIS

The U.S. men's basketball team wins gold.

Our peach baskets, our ball, our gold.

Anyway, that's how it used to be. Send a nice bunch of college kids every four years, come back with a gold medal.

It was a little too easy to disregard that 1972 loss to the USSR over the bizarre finish, but after the kids were sent home with bronze from Seoul in 1988, we started sending the big boys.

Order seemed restored when NBA players made up the Dream Team in Barcelona, but after three more consecutive golds, the U.S. pros suffered that embarrassing bronze-medal finish in 2004, and it was panic on American courts.

Team play became the new U.S. theme, and now stars who have actually spent their summers playing together have invaded China.

They've been received like rock stars. And presumptive gold-medal winners.

6. FORGOTTEN YET AGAIN

It's the most original and ancient of all Olympic sports. The first sport of every infant.

Yet wrestling will continue to fade from the Olympic spotlight.

It doesn't help that this classic sport of the Greeks has continued to be diminished at the collegiate level in the United States. The only major college wrestling in Southern California is at Cal State Fullerton.

Wrestling as an Olympic sport has continued to be minimized since its glory days of Dan Gable at the '72Munich Olympics.

Countries used to be able to send 10 wrestlers in both Greco-Roman and freestyle. Then, under the guise of adding more women's sports, they cut the number back to seven. And now to its current level of six each. There are four weight classes for women.

Wrestling has still managed to give us some great Olympic stories -- Rulon Gardner's upset of Alexander Karelin in 2000 being one -- but the Olympics' most original of sports will continue to be diminished.

7. THERE WILL BE CONTROVERSY

Some sprinter, some weight lifter, some athlete somewhere in China still feels the need to be pharmaceutically aided and will do whatever he/she believes can be gotten away with to cheat.

And will likely be caught.

These knuckleheads never learn, or at least not enough.

Two dozen were busted for performance-enhancing drugs at the 2004 Athens Olympics, including Greek sprinters Kostis Kenteris and Katerina Thanou. That's more than twice the number nabbed four years earlier in Sydney.

Some sport that requires judging will have a disputed winner. None, though, are likely to be as wild as Paul Hamm's gold in gymnastics in Athens.

When the human element is entered into the equation, trouble inevitably follows.

And, this being China, protesters will complain they can't really protest.

Some columnist, used to being able to write what he or she believes, will be asked to leave because they ripped something deemed unassailable by China.

The smog will never dissipate.

8. AND THEY CALL THAT FAILURE?

The single biggest story of the Games, certainly for the U.S., figures to be our own human amphibian, Michael Phelps. He was the sensation in Athens, when he took home six gold medals and two bronze.

He returns seeking eight gold medals, which would surpass Mark Spitz's record.

The odds are not in his favor. Neither is getting a lot of sleep between events.

So what if he only wins, say, five? Are we going to deem him a disappointment? Shake our heads in dismay, look away when he approaches?

What if he only wins four gold? Will he be allowed back in the country?

Phelps is the greatest swimmer who ever lived, and will be if he only wins half of his targeted eight.

He deserves unending acclaim, but chances are he'll come up short of his goal and too many will sadly view him as disappointing.

CAPTION(S):

2 photos

Photo:

(1) NBA superstars LeBron James, left, and Kobe Bryant will be counted on to get the United States a gold medal in men's basketball.

Kin Cheung/The Associated Press

(2) Jamaican sprinters Asafa Powell, left, and Usain Bolt are two of the favorites to win gold in the 100-meter race.

Maja Suslin/The Associated Press