... AND GLENN.

Byline: Glenn Whipp Film Writer

This year's Oscar race is more frenetic than ever because - wonder of wonders - the year-end prestige pictures that were supposed to be good actually delivered the goods.

This crowded field has some studios scrambling. Does Focus Features put its money behind ``The Pianist'' or ``Far From Heaven''? If Miramax co-chairman Harvey Weinstein is, as he says, making it his ``personal mission'' to see that Martin Scorsese gets a directing nomination for ``Gangs of New York,'' where does that leave the studio's other candidate, Rob Marshall of ``Chicago''?

Of course, Marshall need not worry. Weinstein has never been stingy about delivering resources this time of year. And with Miramax having three major players in this year's Oscar race (the studio co-financed ``The Hours'' with Paramount), the jockeying for position should continue to be fierce until nomination ballots are due on Wednesday.

Here's how the field is shaping up:

BEST PICTURE

Sure things: ``Chicago,'' ``The Hours''

Likely: ``The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers''

Possible: ``Gangs of New York,'' ``The Pianist,'' ``About Schmidt''

Long shots: ``Far From Heaven,'' ``Talk to Her,'' ``Catch Me If You Can,'' ``Adaptation,'' ``Y Tu Mama Tambien,'' ``Antwone Fisher''

Likely to be nominated but shouldn't be: ``Chicago.'' The ``Oliver!'' of its generation.

Unlikely to be nominated but should be: ``Talk to Her.'' Pedro Almodovar's melancholy masterpiece about human need possesses the kind of timeless grace that makes it an instant classic.

Analysis: The locks - ``Chicago'' and ``The Hours'' - appeal primarily to the academy's blue-hair constituency, folks easily wowed by empty spectacle and literary pedigree. Fantasy geeks should make sure ``The Two Towers'' gets its due. After that, anything goes, with a host of critics' favorites battling it out for the final two slots. Bet on the epics - ``Gangs'' and ``The Pianist.''

Prediction: ``Chicago,'' ``The Hours,'' ``The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers,'' ``The Pianist,'' ``Gangs of New York''

BEST ACTRESS

Sure things: Julianne Moore (``Far From Heaven''), Nicole Kidman (``The Hours'')

Likely: Diane Lane (``Unfaithful'')

Possible: Meryl Streep (``The Hours''), Renee Zellweger (``Chicago''), Salma Hayek (``Frida'')

Long shots: Jennifer Aniston (``The Good Girl''), Maggie Gyllenhaal (``Secretary''), Nia Vardalos (``My Big Fat Greek Wedding'')

Likely to be nominated but shouldn't be: Streep was OK in ``The Hours,'' but much better in ``Adaptation.'' And if Zellweger gets in, it will inspire every other actress who can't sing or dance to think that they, too, can star in a musical.

Unlikely to be nominated but should be: If you're going to reward Lane for her sexy vulnerability, why not salute Maribel Verdu, equally sexy and moving in ``Y Tu Mama Tambien''?

Analysis: This is essentially a race between the equally deserving Moore and Kidman. The remaining actresses will simply fill out the ballot.

Prediction: Moore, Kidman, Streep, Zellweger, Lane

BEST ACTOR

Sure things: Daniel Day-Lewis (``Gangs of New York''), Jack Nicholson (``About Schmidt'')

Likely: Michael Caine (``The Quiet American'')

Possible: Nicolas Cage (``Adaptation''), Adrien Brody (``The Pianist'')

Long shots: Richard Gere (``Chicago''), Derek Luke (``Antwone Fisher''), Al Pacino (``Insomnia'')

Likely to be nominated but shouldn't be: All five likely nominees are not only worthy, but extraordinary. Even in a traditionally strong category, this is an embarrassment of riches.

Unlikely to be nominated but should be: If we could expand the category to six names, we'd love to include Pacino for his masterfully modulated work in ``Insomnia.''

Analysis: Two legends (Nicholson and Caine), the greatest actor of his generation (Day-Lewis), a prodigal son returning from years wasted with Bruckheimer and his ilk (Cage) and a phenomenal up-and-comer (Brody). Nominating them is easy. The hard part comes in deciding who wins.

Prediction: Day-Lewis, Nicholson, Caine, Cage, Brody

SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

Sure things: Catherine Zeta-Jones (``Chicago''), Kathy Bates (``About Schmidt'')

Likely: Meryl Streep (``Adaptation'')

Possible: Patricia Clarkson (``Far From Heaven''), Julianne Moore (``The Hours''), Toni Collette (``About a Boy''), Queen Latifah (``Chicago'')

Long shots: Susan Sarandon (``Moonlight Mile''), Michelle Pfeiffer (``White Oleander''), Bebe Neuwirth (``Tadpole''), Emily Mortimer (``Lovely & Amazing'')

Likely to be nominated but shouldn't be: Moore did the tragic housewife thing better in ``Far From Heaven.'' Nominating her here seems redundant.

Unlikely to be nominated but should be: Lois Smith isn't in much of ``Minority Report,'' but do you remember that greenhouse scene with the carnivorous plants? She deserves an Oscar for those five minutes alone.

Analysis: Zeta-Jones is the only cast member of ``Chicago'' who actually pulls off a little of that razzle-dazzle. The award is hers to lose, although Bates could well benefit from the attention from her nude hot-tub romp with Nicholson. Watch Clarkson, though, as the dark horse gaining speed.

Prediction: Zeta-Jones, Bates, Streep, Clarkson, Moore

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sure thing: Chris Cooper (``Adaptation'')

Likely: Dennis Quaid (``Far From Heaven''), Christopher Walken (``Catch Me If You Can''), Paul Newman (``Road to Perdition'')

Possible: Ray Liotta (``Narc''), Ed Harris (``The Hours''), Alfred Molina (``Frida'')

Long shots: Denzel Washington (``Antwone Fisher''), John C. Reilly (``Chicago'')

Likely to be nominated but shouldn't be: Harris should win an Oscar someday, just not for his overheated work in ``The Hours.''

Unlikely to be nominated but should be: Liotta's ferocious turn in ``Narc'' made us forgive him for participating in that lobotomy scene in ``Hannibal'' and for his lousy impersonation of Frank Sinatra in HBO's ``The Rat Pack.''

Analysis: With Newman, Quaid and Walken leading the way, this category looks more like a career achievement nominees list. Cooper's toothless orchid poacher stands head and shoulders above the crowd.

Prediction: Cooper, Quaid, Walken, Newman, Harris

DIRECTOR

Sure things: Martin Scorsese (``Gangs of New York''), Stephen Daldry (``The Hours'')

Likely: Peter Jackson (``The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers'')

Possible: Rob Marshall (``Chicago''), Roman Polanski (``The Pianist''), Todd Haynes (``Far From Heaven'')

Long shots: Pedro Almodovar (``Talk to Her''), Alexander Payne (``About Schmidt''), Steven Spielberg (``Minority Report'')

Likely to be nominated but shouldn't be: Marshall. You can only score so many points for simply transferring a musical to the screen.

Unlikely to be nominated but should be: Take your pick: Spielberg for his thrilling sci-fi noir, Phillip Noyce for either ``The Quiet American'' or ``Rabbit-Proof Fence,'' Almodovar for ``Talk to Her'' or Todd Haynes for the technical achievements and emotional artistry of ``Far From Heaven.''

Analysis: This category usually matches the best picture nominees - with one exception. (Hence the annual complaint: ``I guess the movie just directed itself.'') We're betting voters are smart enough to recognize genuine achievement over smoke and mirrors and nominate Haynes over Marshall.

Prediction: Scorsese, Daldry, Jackson, Polanski, Haynes