(NOT SO) REMOTE POSSIBILITIES FROM HIGH-DEF TO NOT PRIME TIME, TV TIMES ARE A-CHANGING KILL THE SUPPLY.

Byline: David Kronke Television Writer

ABC's recently canceled ``Night Stalker'' never got much traction on the air, where it was buried by ``CSI: Crime Scene Investigation'' and ``The Apprentice,'' but there was a place it was a consistent top-10 hit, matching and even surpassing ``Desperate Housewives'' and ``Lost'' on iTunes' Video Bestsellers list.

``We had a terrible time slot, but it was heartening to see how well we charted on iTunes,'' says ``Night Stalker'' executive producer Frank Spotnitz. ``At this stage in on-demand TV, I don't think the network saw that as part of their business. They kept their eye on it, but unfortunately it didn't happen soon enough to become a powerful argument (to keep the show on the air). It was viewed as an experiment.''

Granted, thousands of downloads (at $1.99 a pop) scarcely compare to millions of prime-time viewers. Still, ``It's not just about the Nielsen (ratings) anymore,'' says Jerry Maglio, Starz! vice president of marketing. ``It's about the Nielsens plus this plus that, depending on who's being targeted, that will equal success or failure. The video landscape is changing - daily, it seems.''

``Night Stalker'' may have been a victim of an industry unsure of how to contend with the exploding new technologies surrounding it, but it will hardly be the last.

``How long have we been hearing about all this new technology and the breathless cries of revolution, and it never happened?'' says Robert Thompson, founding director of Syracuse University's Center for the Study of Popular Television. ``This year, the tipping point occurred.''

``It's exciting and frightening both,'' Spotnitz says. ``Everybody knows everything's going to change. But no one knows how.''

Here are three glimpses of how things may change in the near future, and what it means both for viewers and those who create and distribute TV entertainment.

--R.I.P., network prime-time schedule?

ABC first made episodes of some of its programs available at iTunes; NBC followed (``The Office,'' a relatively low-rated sitcom, is a hit at iTunes, with episodes taking up 13 of the top 40 positions on the video sales list), and added on-demand offerings of some of its programming through DirecTV. CBS is doing the same via some Comcast digital cable operators.

Are these networks taking baby steps to their own future irrelevance? When any programming is available whenever the viewer wants it, what does that portend for those carefully strategized prime-time lineups?

``There's been a declining audience for network TV for a while,'' says Spotnitz. Besides cable and the Internet, he says, ``People have their own libraries of things they specifically want to see, which competes for TV viewing time. More options is good news for the consumer but bad news for the networks, who are responsible for the most expensive hours of TV produced. It'll be harder and harder to maintain an audience that justifies that business model.''

Starz!'s Maglio agrees. ``There's been a steady erosion of ratings off broadcast, and now a couple of other factors - the on-demand mentality, and in a parallel path, the youth of America who prefer broadband, Internet-based content options. Put all that together, and what's moving south is an adherence to a fixed-schedule viewing pattern. What's emerging is a personal prime time, where you become the programmer, selecting among the options available to you.''

Paul Levinson, chairman of the department of communications and media studies at Fordham University in New York, says of the networks, ``They're on the ropes - they'll not last much longer. By 2015, network TV may be one-fifth as important as it is now. The prime-time TV programmer will become an artifact of history. Geniuses like William Paley brilliantly understood how to put together a great lineup, but those are already bygone days: No one at the networks today has that sort of stature.''

Albert Cheng, vice president of Disney/ABC Digital Media, says that rumors of the death of prime-time TV are greatly exaggerated and that other platforms help the weekly schedule. ``They give the viewer another opportunity to see a show they've missed; they're another opportunity to get that show further along (in its overall visibility). (Even with iPods and PCs), the bulk of consumer time will be spent in front of the tube. The largest platform you have will still be TV in five years, and it'll play a large role in driving other platforms. In 10 or 15 years, I can't see that far.''

--R.I.P. DVD sales?

The industry was heartened when a new revenue stream was discovered in the DVD boxed set of seasons of TV series. But sales are already slumping, and DVD recorders - including one from TiVo, the service that made recording programs a no-brainer - are insinuating themselves into the marketplace. (TiVo also allows users to interact with their iPods and PCs.) A recordable DVD can hold one hour of programming per disc at high quality, six hours at ``basic'' quality.

Moreover, a study commissioned by Starz! on Demand found that 70 percent of its on-demand users no longer go to video stores and that 60 percent buy fewer DVDs. (No means of recording on-demand programming was implied in the survey; the service itself was credited with the change in consumer behavior.)

Most questioned didn't think this assemblage of facts spelled worry for the DVD's future. Even Jim Denney, vice president of product marketing at TiVo, says, ``It's much more a point of convenience than a substitute for buying a set. You burn these shows and take them with you - they come with the commercials. If you want a season all in order, without commercials, the boxed set offers a different value for you.''

Syracuse's Thompson says, ``All rational predictions say it will have a huge influence, but I don't have a rational response to this. People buy DVD sets and don't watch them. I keep finding, over and over, when I visit people's homes, that they have rows and rows of DVD sets, which have the cellophane still on. People just like the packaging - it was a stroke of genius to offer an entire season of a series in something no bigger than a three-pack of VHS tapes.''

``A 'Lost' fan is going to want that set,'' says Cheng. The DVD recorder, to me, suggests home video, transferring home videos to DVD. I don't see that threat.''

Spotnitz, on the other hand, says, ``My guess is, yes, this will dry up and, beyond that, software is going to disappear altogether. There's no reason to own a plastic disc and burn it when you can play whatever you want, whenever you want.''

--Will high-definition TV simply punch the reset button?

Mark Cuban is the famously outspoken owner of the Dallas Mavericks, a film producer (``Good Night, and Good Luck''), online mogul and co-founder of HDNet, a digital service providing programming in high-definition. He says that as the country prepares to switch from analog to digital programming in 2009, high-definition TV will be at the forefront and rescue the broadcast networks.

``The conventional wisdom seems to be that video on demand from cable providers or video-on-demand downloads from the Internet will supplant traditional TV,'' he wrote in an e-mail. ``That won't happen.

``There is no question that consumers will benefit from being able to receive content wherever they want, whenever they want. Video to the device will definitely succeed. ... But watching video on an iPod wont replace watching TV. ... The variable that no one seems to be including in their evaluations of the future is HDTV.''

High-definition TV will take far more bandwidth than cable and satellite companies currently use, and, Cuban notes, ``We are in a bandwidth-constrained environment. Cable companies are not going to invest in upgrading their cable plants. Satellite companies are limited in the number of satellites they can launch.''

Viewers become quickly won over to HD programming, often eschewing anything else, and as bandwidth becomes an issue, some networks will find themselves squeezed out of the picture, Cuban says.

``If there will be a reduction in the number of channels available because of HD, that should lead to an increase in the value of the prime-time broadcast schedule,'' he continues. ``HDTV will change the landscape to the advantage of the broadcast networks.''

David Kronke, [phone]

david.kronke(at)dailynews.com

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2 photos

Photo:

(1 -- cover -- color) PRESS 1 FOR CHANGE

Make your own DVDs of shows, jump into high-def - big changes ahead for TV

(2) no caption (remote control, dvds)

Hans Gutknecht/Staff Photographer