'Terminator' receipts may decide Schwarzenegger plans. (Politics).

WILL he or won't he? The ongoing speculation about whether Arnold Schwarzenegger will enter the governor's race as part of the ongoing recall effort knows few bounds.

Among the many scenarios being played out by political consultants and others involves the success of Schwarzenegger's latest star vehicle -- "Terminator 3: The Rise of the Machines."

"My original theory was that if 'Terminator 3' took in $100 million in the weekend, it might justify a 'Terminator 4' and keep Arnold in the movie business," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, political science professor at the University of Southern California. "If it fell way short of that, I figured he's in the race."

"Terminator 3" did not break $100 million in the first weekend: it fell into what Jeffe called a "gray area," pulling in $72 million. "No question, it didn't meet expectations," she said.

That's not to say "Terminator 3," which cost $175 million to make and $50 million to market, won't eventually turn a profit. "It's holding its own," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations Co., an Encino box-office tracking firm, after figures came out showing "Terminator 3" pulling in $110 million in its first 11 days. "Given that it hasn't really hit overseas yet and we still have all the DVD and ancillary markets to factor in later, I wouldn't write it off," he said.

So where does that leave Schwarzenegger's chances of running?

"My gut tells me that with the disappointing second weekend, where sales fell off 55 percent, he's probably a little closer to making the decision to enter the race," Jeffe said. "It would be a graceful way out of his acting career."

Schwarzenegger himself has said he won't have any comment until next month, after he wraps up his foreign marketing tour for the film.