'Status quo' levy determination anticipated.

Byline: Howard Wright

SENIOR figures in both the racing and betting industries are bracing themselves for disappointment when the government announces its determination of the next levy scheme, which could come as early as tomorrow, writes Howard Wright.

Ministers in the Department for Culture, Media and Sport Back, who returned yesterday after the MPs' ten-day half-term break, went through the detail and are expected to sign off the all-important document today, sealing racing's main funding mechanism for the year beginning April 1.

Indications expressed privately are that neither side - racing or betting - will be able to claim anything like a victory from the first determination since 2002.

The likeliest outcome is that new DCMS secretary of state Andy Burnham and sports minister Gerry Sutcliffe will apply their signatures to a virtual status quo scheme - a rollover of the current ten per cent gross profits mechanism, with maybe minor adjustments around the edges - and the establishment of a further review into the whole future of the levy.

The government remains determined to get the levy, and the Tote, off its books as soon as is commercially possible, and while a decision about the Tote sale is said to remain a few weeks away and the future of the levy cannot be solved in the short term, the general mood is likely to be reiterated this week.

As far as the 2008-09 levy scheme is concerned, the government and its advisers OCP are believed to have been unable to reconcile the widely divergent submissions by the BHA and the bookmakers' committee.

Although racing initially counselled the bookmakers to continue the 2007-08 scheme, while exploring a solution to issues surrounding the broadcasting of pictures into betting shops, the BHA submission to the DCMS sought a levy scheme that would yield at least between pounds 135-pounds 153 million a year, based on the 'value of horseracing to the betting industry', and a reappraisal of the contributions made by betting exchanges.

Bookmakers' representatives, who suggested a conditional rollover in the final throes of last October's negotiations, eventually pressed for the industry-wide costs of installing TurfTV, which were forecast to total around pounds 50m, to be offset from levy payments.

The DCMS determination of a rollover, bringing in pounds 85.5m based on the forecasts for the 2007-8 scheme, would satisfy neither claim, but would probably be seen as a greater disappointment by racing interests.