'Plumber' Wins Over 'Iceberg' in Ads Designed to Influence Social Security Reform.

FLEMINGTON, N.J. -- A new national survey reveals that more Americans give an emotional "thumbs-up" to the Social Security reform "Plumber" TV spot over the competing "Iceberg" advertisement. However, neither commercial appeared to have a significant impact on public perceptions of President Bush's handling of Social Security reform.

The American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) Plumber commercial was perceived as "more believable" by respondents than was the Progress for America (PFA) Iceberg advertisement. The respondents who viewed the AARP Plumber commercial indicated that it was very believable, noted that the commercial made them feel not bored and attentive (42%), benefited and enlightened (20%) and active, entertained and excited (21%).

On a believability scale of 0-100, the average rating for the Plumber commercial among moderates was 56, compared with an average rating of 52 for the Iceberg spot. Among liberals, the average rating for the Plumber commercial was 64, opposed to an average of 49 for the Iceberg ad. However, among conservatives, the Iceberg commercial scored higher with an average of 66, compared with an average of 44 for the Plumber spot. Moreover, those who viewed the Iceberg commercial were slightly more likely (43%) to feel "suspicious and skeptical" than viewers of the Plumber commercial (35%).

Conversely, respondents who viewed the Iceberg commercial who indicated it was not believable stated that the commercial made them feel suspicious and skeptical (16%), sad, angry, powerless, helpless and distressed (13%) and disgusted, irritated, enraged and contemptuous (11%). Generally, viewers of PFA's Iceberg commercial expressed more negative emotions after viewing it than viewers of the AARP advertisement.

"Public opinion will play a significant role in shaping Social Security reform, particularly among older Americans," reports Glenn Kessler, Co-Founder and Managing Partner, HCD Research. "Our early research indicates that AARP's political strength and credibility may give them an early edge in delivering messages that resonate well with the American public."

In the on-line study of 900 Americans, half of the respondents viewed the "Plumber" commercial sponsored by the AARP, while half viewed the "Iceberg" commercial sponsored by the PFA, a group backing President Bush's reform plan. Prior to viewing the commercial, respondents were asked their opinions on social security reform. Respondents were asked to use their mouse on a sliding scale to choose from a list of emotions and indicate the one description that best reflected their feeling when viewing the commercials. After viewing the commercials, respondents were asked those same questions to determine whether their opinions had changed.

Respondents who described themselves as "political moderates" were studied separately to determine the perceptions of the "swing" group. Overall, political moderates found the AARP Plumber commercial to be more believable than the PFA Iceberg commercial. They also rated the AARP commercial more favorably than the Iceberg commercial.

The respondents' views on President Bush's plan and his management of the issue remained unchanged, with viewers rating both negatively before and after viewing the commercials. Specifically, regardless of which commercial they viewed:

--49% of disagree with President Bush's new plan.

--46% disagree with the way President Bush is managing Social Security reform.

--39% disagree with changing the Social Security system to allow people to invest part of their Social Security payroll tax in stocks and bonds.

--Approximately 27% indicated that they do not fully understand the plan.

The national e-survey was conducted by HCD Research and the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO) during April 4-5, among a nationally representative sample of Americans. Their emotions were measured using the Ayer Emotional Battery (AEB), which captures the feelings of participants as they listen to or view advertising or communications. The margin of error is plus or minus 3% with a confidence level of 95%.

The AEB was developed by the former NW Ayer Advertising agency in the 1980s to understand the emotional impact of effective advertising. Ayer validated the elements with a nationally representative sample using 45 separate advertisements. The agency subsequently granted rights to the measurement tool for research outside the firm.

As part of ReadMyLipz.com, HCD Research and the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO) used the Internet to conduct non-partisan studies and advertising research throughout the 2004 Presidential Election to measure voter reactions to the candidates' advertisements.

Headquartered in Flemington, New Jersey, HCD Research is a pioneer in Internet health care marketing and communications research. Headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania, MCIPO is a respected source of public opinion data on local, state and national issues.

For more information or to schedule an interview with Glenn Kessler, Co-Founder and Managing Partner, HCD Research or Chris Borick, Ph.D., Associate Political Science Professor, Muhlenberg College, please contact Vince McGourty, M&M Communications, Inc., at 908-638-5555 or [e-mail].