'De Facto' Hollywood Strike Beginning to Take Hold.

The long-dreaded shutdown of Hollywood's production machine has begun.

While some portions of the entertainment industry are still, scrambling to finish projects before the Screen Actors Guild's current labor contract expires July 1, those working on the front end of projects are already feeling the effect of what increasingly looks like a prolonged industry shutdown.

Among them is Melody Barnett, owner of Palace Costume and Prop Co. in Los Angeles.

"We've totally slowed down. We ere really busy a couple of months ago, but now we're just doing dribs and drabs," Barnett said. "Usually people come to us at the beginning of a production. Right now, everyone is waiting to see what's going to happen."

And Barnett is not alone. Amid the greatest rush to production that Hollywood has seen in years, prop companies, casting directors and others at the front end of the production cycle are feeling the pinch as the threat of strikes puts a lid on film and television work that cannot be completed before July. Going forward, as each current production wraps, the number and variety of entertainment industry workers suddenly idled will steadily increase. And for those not currently working, well, they can pretty much forget about getting an industry job anytime soon.

"Casting agents and talent folks are already arriving at a hiatus, and that's also true in development -- people scripts for shooting," said preparing John Furia, a member of the Writers Guild of America negotiating committee and chair of the Screen and Television Writing Program at the USC School of Cinema-Television. "For people who are looking for jobs, all through the spectrum, it's tough. If they're not working, they're not going to be working."

In addition to a possible SAG strike, the WGA contract expires May 1. And the overwhelming feeling among those who make their living in the entertainment industry -- estimated to represent 10 percent of the $300 billion local economy -- is that strikes are a forgone conclusion. Fueling that gloomy outlook is the extended bargaining hiatus and lack of measurable progress reached thus far between the WGA and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, the industry group that negotiates for the film and television studios. Moreover, many businesspeople in Hollywood are miffed that SAG hasn't even initiated talks with the AMPTP.

Not surprisingly, the sinking feeling is most prevalent among those who have already seen their businesses affected.

"First on, first to go. It starts at pre-production and it will spread from there," said Lisa Beach, whose small Larchmont Village casting company is facing at least a temporary shutdown whether the strikes come to pass or not, due to the halt in new productions.

"I'm working on three projects right now, but I will be done on Friday (April 6) and I won't have anything until this gets settled," said Beach, whose company did casting for such films as "Election," and "Girl, Interrupted."

Most of the large studios set March 30 as an unofficial deadline for putting new feature films into production, meaning that if shooting hasn't begun by now on a big project, it's not likely to. In addition, the possibility of strikes is starting to impact smaller productions with shorter shooting schedules, said Furia.

"There's a certain hurry-up mentality when you put a deadline on things," he said. "Most productions will want to wrap a couple of weeks before that. No one wants to go down to the deadline."

During the first three months of the year, that deadline pressure led to one of the most productive quarters in Hollywood history, according to the Entertainment Industry Development Corp.

The EIDC counted 1,066 production days in Los Angeles in March, a 64 percent jump from the year-earlier period but still 7 percent less than February's frenetic pace. Overall production was up 45 percent during the first quarter, compared with the year-earlier quarter.

"I've been doing this since the early 1970s, and this huge work crunch right now is something the likes of which we've never seen," said Michael Everett, a gaffer and board member with the Studio Electrical Lighting Technicians Union Local 728.

That's been good for business, but Everett said his union is concerned that the good times are about to come to an abrupt end. He pointed out that the new jobs created by the increase in production so far this year would translate into a smaller slice of a rapidly shrinking pie when work slows.

Contingency plans 

The blazing pace of production is expected to continue through April and May, but the dearth of new deals means that a number of industry niches have all reached the danger point of a slowdown.

"You are trying to get so much product in the can, at some point there is going to be a slowdown," said Pamm Fair, spokeswoman for the American Federation of Radio and Television Artists. "The problem is, we are dealing with a de facto strike. People are preparing for a strike even though there isn't one."

That's the case at Buzz Halliday and Associates, a boutique talent agency on the Westside.

"We are seeing a slowdown already. There's apprehension. If you don't know what's going to happen, then it's difficult to plan ahead," said owner Buzz Halliday.

To compensate, Halliday is shifting her focus away from film and television and working to finding live-theater roles for her clients or non-union productions that are shot overseas.

"From my standpoint, I think they ought to get to the table and start talking, especially with the current economic environment," she said. "If they do strike, I think it will be devastating for the actors and the talent agencies."

But right now, at Artist's Management Group, a much larger talent management firm, business has been brisk with a flurry of recent deals, said COO Jon Vein.

"At least in the short term, (the threat of strikes) has actually been very good for business," Vein said. "We have not seen the downturn yet, but it's likely to kick in relatively soon.

Michael Marr, owner of Hollywood Honeywagon and Motor Home, is in a similar position. Marr hasn't been able to keep any of his mobile dressing rooms on the lot for months, but with SAG productions representing about 70 percent of his current business, he knows that will change.

"Nobody wants to get caught (with a strike) in the middle of their production, so we're expecting the drop-off pretty soon," Man said.

For Beach, that means giving thought to returning to a job waiting tables.

"I will be unemployed half of April, all of May and all of June," Beach said. "I've started saving, but I'm just hoping they will make a deal. I'm panicked out of my mind."

Barnett, of Palace Costume, feels much the same way.

"We're trying to save and cut back a little, but we're very worried," she said. "We don't have a vast amount of money to rely on for a long strike."