'Conspiracy of silence' over climate migrants: UN official

A "conspiracy of silence" is stifling debate over the future of people who become displaced through climate change, a top UN official for refugees says.

In an interview with AFP at the UN climate talks in Barcelona, Jean-Francois Durieux, in charge of climate change at the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), said the question "remains taboo."

Under 1951 UN statutes, the term "refugee" applies specifically to a victim of violence or persecution, who is then entitled to help and asylum in other countries.

But no such status exists for people who are forced from their home by drought, flood, storms and rising sea levels unleashed by man-made global warming.

"There's a conspiracy of silence at the moment," Durieux said.

"The countries of origin (of displaced people) and host countries are not eager, and are even hostile, about opening up the question," he said.

"The reason is because there is no reliable way of estimating how many people could be affected."

The Stern Review, a 2006 assessment on the economics of climate change authored by British economist Sir Nicholas Stern, quoted estimates of as many as 150-200 million "permanently displaced" environmental refugees by mid-century.

An estimate put forward by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) suggests 200 to 250 million by the same date.

One of the problems, though, is that the definitition of a climate refugee is hard to pin down, say experts.

For instance, it may be impossible to say whether a single weather event, or even a string of them -- such as a run of bad harvests -- is part of a natural cycle or inflicted by longer-term human occurrence.

These events can also be amplified by human folly or bad governance, such as allowing people to settle in areas that are vulnerable to water stress, mudslides, hurricanes and so on.

Another complication is that the climate change could be the underlying cause for displacement but its role is masked by conflict or unrest, which are far more visible.

Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, New York, is among those who believe the war in Sudan's Darfur is an example where climate change has already driven a badly-stressed region over the brink.

At present, "there is no obligation to accept people fleeing poverty," said Durieux. "Illegal migrants can be expelled."

He said the UNHCR was treading delicately on the subject, both because of the legal complexities of how to define a climate refugee and also because of the repercussions of giving asylum to potentially millions of people.

"Member states do accept an open-ended system of this kind, but only for a small number of people," said Durieux.

"If we try to promote a requirement whereby a state would have to accept (climate refugees) for a long time, we won't get anywhere," he said.

"It could have a boomerang effect, hitting people who are already fleeing persecution and cause the current regime of protection, which is already constantly under threat, to unravel."

The UNHCR hopes to make its own proposals within the next year.

In the meantime, a new global climate pact planned under the 192-nation UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) -- scheduled to be hammered out in Copenhagen next month -- could "build a capital of trust" to open the debate, Durieux hoped.