'88 Hill antics.

'88 HILL ANTICS

BISMARCK once remarked that legislation is like sausage: it's better not to watch it being made. 1988 will prove him right again.

The 100th Congress is halfway over. Despite alarmist predictions to the contrary, Democratic control of the Senate--reasserted in the 1986 elections--did not spell the end of the Reagan Administration. The White House emerged from 1987 without having to veto a protectionist trade bill, without congressional action forcing the removal of the U.S. naval task force from the Persian Gulf, with marginal Contra aid intact, and with sufficient maneuvering room to cut a deal with the Soviet Union by which intermediate-range nuclear missiles are removed from Europe and the Strategic Defense Initiative is left intact, at least for now. And, most unexpected, Democratic Senator Sam Nunn--alarmed by what he perceives as the potential vulnerability of the United States strategic arsenal under the terms of the proposed START agreement that Mr. Reagan might initial during his Moscow visit this summer--is jockeying behind the scenes to add mobile ICBMs to the U.S. arsenal.

That said, 1988 still looks like a year of confrontation. With the Democrats controlling the legislative branch and the Republicans holding the Presidency, we are set for a classic partisan confrontation geared to the presidential election. Ever since Truman beat Dewey by running against the "do-nothing" 80th Congress, legislators and Presidents have been fully aware of the campaign value of staging legislative showdowns.

In 1988, Washington pundits expect Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd to use his legislative powers to the fullest in staging such partisan confrontations, starting with the House and Senate votes on Contra aid February 3 and 4. Last year Congress parceled out a measly $14 million to tide the Contras over until 1988. President Reagan must now decide whether to ask for enough money to keep the Contras going until the next President takes office.

Before the defection of Sandinista Major Roger Miranda, a key aide to the Nicaraguan defense minister, money for the Contras looked doomed. But Miranda's defection triggered a Sandinista admission that plans are afoot to build a 590,000-man army and hold on to power no matter what the outcome of elections in Nicaragua. Costa Rican President Oscar Arias has been scrambling ever since to justify his Nobel Peace Prize. Instead of declaring a truce, both the Sandinistas and the Contras have stepped up the war. Most recently, Daniel Ortega says he will talk directly to the Contras, doubtless a concession fashioned to thwart U.S. congressional aid. But Ortega's credibility is so low on the Hill that the vote is too close to call.

In early March the Senate is expected to vote on ratification of the INF accord. Little controversy is expected, and President Reagan will be able to declare victory on that front. Another victory, largely a pyrrhic one, will come in January or February with the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Anthony Kennedy.

The omnibus trade bill will have rougher sailing. Stalled since autumn over the House addition of the Gephardt Amendment and its stiff conditions for handling nations with trade surpluses, the Senate bill also contains punitive sanctions against Toshiba Machine Company for its role in diverting to the Soviets technology enabling them to build harder-to-detect submarines. Look for this showdown in early spring. Older legislative business, such as catastrophic-illness insurance and welfare reform, is not likely to offer the best opportunities for the Democrats.

Instead, watch for them to focus on President Reagan's budget, loaded with targets for Democratic campaign antics. Here's the scenario as the White House sees it. Senator Byrd & Co. will track proposed domestic spending cuts, and dramatically up the ante in social-welfare spending, health care, education, and other "compassion items" such as the minimum wage. They will also pass individual appropriations bills that would bust the President's budget, daring him to either 1) veto the spending bills or 2) let the budget go out of control.

Showdown

THAT SCENARIO will confront the Administration with a choice between good politics and good government, with the Republican presidential contenders nervously awaiting the outcome. In similar circumstances, most Administrations would submit what is known as a "campaign budget," but OMB Director James Miller is working on a proposal that continues to meet deficit-reduction goals. That will mean substantial spending reductions, setting the stage for a major battle. Administration strategists are hoping that voters 1) will find Byrd's tactics transparent and 2) will not be shocked, after seven years of struggles over the budget, by a showdown between bigspending Democrats and fiscally austere Republicans.

Byrd's tactics could backfire. Public-opinion polls show that Congress and the White House receive equal blame for the deficit problem. Confrontation over spending bills in 1988 may tip the balance of blame back into the Democratic Party's lap. If that happens, the Republican nominee may still be able to run against the "tax and spend" Democrats of 1980 instead of the new Democratic Party so diligently shaped by Paul Kirk. In any event, the New Year promises to be legislatively entertaining.