''Conceptual Reserves'' Are Nice in Theory, Hard to Use, Says Matthew Simmons in World Energy Monthly Review.HOUSTON -- Estimating proven oil and gas "has become one of the industry's most controversial topics," notes Matthew Simmons Matthew R. Simmons, chairman and CEO of Simmons & Company International, is a prominent oil-industry insider and one of the world's leading experts on the topic of peak oil. in the November issue of World Energy Monthly Review. Considering the great variance in measurement calculations and the "widespread co-mingling of nonconventional oil reserves Oil reserves refer to portions of oil in place that are claimed to be recoverable under economic constraints. Oil in the ground is not a "reserve" unless it is claimed to be economically recoverable, since as the oil is extracted, the cost of recovery increases incrementally , including oil sands and tar sands Tar sands is a common name of what are more properly called bituminous sands, but also commonly referred to as oil sands or (in Venezuela) extra-heavy oil. They are a mixture of sand or clay, water, and extremely heavy crude oil. ," with the conventional reserves being counted, "a company's reported proven reserves" has been "a difficult, if not impossible, guideline guideline Medtalk A series of recommendations by a body of experts in a particular discipline. See Cancer screening guidelines, Cardiac profile guidelines, Gatekeeper guidelines, Harvard guidelines, Transfusion guidelines. to use to predict the rate at which a company's daily oil and gas reserves could grow or decline." "If the whole reserves issue were not confusing con·fuse v. con·fused, con·fus·ing, con·fus·es v.tr. 1. a. To cause to be unable to think with clarity or act with intelligence or understanding; throw off. b. enough," writes Simmons, chairman and CEO (1) (Chief Executive Officer) The highest individual in command of an organization. Typically the president of the company, the CEO reports to the Chairman of the Board. of the investment firm Simmons & Co. International and author of Twilight twilight, period between sunset and total darkness or between total darkness and sunrise. Total darkness does not occur immediately when the sun sinks below the horizon because light from the sun that strikes the atmosphere is scattered (both by the air itself and by in the Desert, "add to the mix the latest definition of reserves.... These reserves are neither conventional nor unconventional oil. They are 'conceptual reserves.'" So-called conceptual reserves estimate the oil "in various structures 'yet to be found' but ... highly likely to be found at some unknown time." There is a "positive aspect" to conceptual reserves, admits Simmons: "The reserves can be anywhere. They can be developed at any conceptual cost. The only flaw in this approach," he points out, "is that undiscovered and not-producible oil is hard to use." "In the end," Simmons insists, "the world will never know the extent to which oil and gas supplies are approaching peak output until we have a globally mandated, quarterly field-by-field production report." Some fairly simple analysis of such reports would allow prediction "with some confidence" of the growth or decline of production rates. Mandated data reform, he concludes, would "transform what is now a passionate but merely theological debate about peak oil into some hard facts." Without it, he fears, our future will depend on "too much unconventional oil and an even greater base of conceptual oil." World Energy Monthly Review offers a no-holds-barred perspective, timely information and in-depth analysis on energy issues. To read these essays, please visit www.WorldEnergySource.com/WEMR. World Energy Monthly Review joins World Energy Magazine, Television, Educational Programs and the World Energy Source in providing unparalleled news and editorials. Learn more about World Energy products at www.WorldEnergySource.com. |
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