`YOU CAN'T TELL BY LOOKING AT AN 8-YEAR-OLD HOW VIOLENT THEY'RE LIKELY TO BE' : MURDER RATE MAY DOUBLE BY 2020, RESEARCHER SAYS.

Byline: Paul Hefner Daily News Sacramento Bureau

California's murder rate could double by the year 2020 - and whether it does or not depends on how well 8-year-olds learn to behave, a researcher warned state lawmakers Tuesday.

If the rate that teen-agers are arrested for homicide grows 3 percent a year - as it did only a few years back - the murder rate will skyrocket with the number of young people in California, RAND Corp. director Peter Greenwood said at a hearing on public safety issues.

But murder rates could fall just as dramatically if the state manages to slow or reverse the trend by preventing today's children from becoming tomorrow's killers, he said.

``What really matters is the rate of criminality of those kids,'' Greenwood told lawmakers. ``It's what that kid who is 8 years old now is going to be doing at 15. We don't know. You can't tell by looking at an 8-year-old how violent they're likely to be.''

Greenwood, director of the criminal justice programs at the Santa Monica think tank, outlined his projections for lawmakers at the first of two joint hearings by the Senate and Assembly public safety committees.

Senate committee chairman John Vasconcellos, D-Santa Clara, said the hearings were meant to give lawmakers a ``reality check'' before considering a slew of new bills meant to crack down even harder on crime.

``We want to move the agenda, we want to, where it's possible, change the debate,'' said Assembly Public Safety Committee Chairman Robert Hertzberg, D-Sherman Oaks. ``My motto is, what works?''

Experts portrayed the state's policies - particularly the ``three strikes, you're out'' laws - as out of touch with research that shows prevention programs are more effective at reducing crime than simply lengthening prison stays.

Greenwood said that the state should consider parent education programs, incentives to keep children in school and early intervention of youthful offenders to cut crime.

``One million dollars spent on prevention, on keeping kids in school, will prevent three to four times more crime than ($1 million spent) locking people up,'' he said.

Michael Arkelian, a Sacramento public defender, recalled testimony last year by the former elementary school teachers on behalf of one of his clients who was ultimately sentenced to Death Row. The teachers, he said, remembered their frustration that their were no programs to intervene in the child's life when it could have made a difference.

``Today, as we speak, there are hundreds if not thousands of 8- and 9-year-olds in identical situations where (programs that cost) a couple thousand dollars would have turned their lives around,'' Arkelian said. ``And I'm sure that in 10 or 12 years, if I'm still practicing law, those boys will be my clients.''

However, Mike Reynolds, author of the ``three strikes'' initiative approved by voters, said during the hearing that the law's message has hit home with criminals, lowering both crime and arrest rates.

He said that the drop in crime rates has meant 400,000 fewer crimes statewide, including 2,000 fewer murders.

``This is the way to go,'' Reynolds said. ``This is working. You have hard evidence that it's working.''

Reynolds said that some would-be career criminals are cleaning up their acts because of ``three strikes.''

``I have mothers writing letters to me, thanking me for putting this on the books, saying that their sons have gotten a job for the first time in their lives because of this,'' he said.

Reynolds questioned whether crime prevention programs would be as successful.

``I am a great believer that you cannot change anybody, they have to change themselves,'' he said.