`FLUBBER' BOX OFFICE BOUNCING; AFTER TRAILING `ALIEN' SEQUEL EARLY, FILM SQUEAKING INTO HOLIDAY-WEEKEND LEAD.

Byline: Dave McNary Daily News Staff Writer

Early projections showed the opening of ``Flubber'' leading the five-day Thanksgiving weekend at the nation's box office with around $31 million at 2,641 theaters, industry trackers reported Friday.

The slapstick comedy, starring Robin Williams in a Disney remake of 1961's ``The Absent Minded Professor,'' should edge out the debut of 20th Century Fox's ``Alien Resurrection,'' which should finish the vacation period with about $29 million at 2,234 theaters, analysts project.

``Flubber'' and ``Alien Resurrection'' benefited from large ad campaigns and posted fairly solid results during the first two days of the Thanksgiving vacation, one of the heaviest movie-going periods of the year. Still, they will fall far short of the $45.1 million gross taken in last Thanksgiving vacation by Disney's live-action version of ``101 Dalmatians'' on its way to a final gross of $136 million.

``Alien Resurrection,'' the fourth in the outer-space action-adventure series, opened impressively Wednesday with $5 million, easily topping the $3.2 million from ``Flubber'' as its hard-core fans - mostly teen-agers and young adults - turned out in strong numbers. On Thanksgiving, however, families with children going to see ``Flubber'' lifted its daily gross to $5.6 million while ``Alien Resurrection`` improved slightly to $5.1 million.

Robert Bucksbaum, head of the Reel Source forecasting service, said ``Flubber'' looks likely to go past ``Alien Resurrection'' to top the vacation period with strong performances at showings today and Sunday.

Bucksbaum predicted the final domestic take for ``Flubber'' should hit about $100 million, marking Williams' biggest success since ``The Birdcage'' grossed $124 million last year, while ``Alien Resurrection'' will wind up in the $85 million to $88 million range.

``Alien Resurrection,'' with Sigourney Weaver reprising her role as Ellen Ripley, could become the top grosser of the series. ``Alien'' took in $60.2 million in 1979; ``Aliens'' hit $81.8 million in 1986; and ``Alien 3'' grossed $55.9 million in 1992.

Early projections showed ``Anastasia,'' Fox's first major foray into animation, holding up fairly well in third for the five days, with about $15 million at 2,480 theaters following its $14.1 million debut last weekend. The numbers are impressive because Disney had attempted to draw away moviegoers by reissuing its 1989 animated hit, ``The Little Mermaid,'' two weeks ago.

```Anastasia' has strong word-of-mouth and should have a fairly long run,'' said Bucksbaum, who predicted a final gross of $85 million to $90 million. For Fox, ``Alien Resurrection'' and ``Anastasia'' represent the first major successes this year aside from the low-budget hit ``The Fully Monty.''

``John Grisham's The Rainmaker'' looked likely to finish a close fourth with $14 million to $15 million at 2,317 theaters after opening with $10.6 million last weekend for Paramount. Universal's ``The Jackal'' should be fifth with $11 million at 2,201 locations to top $40 million in its first 17 days.

Last weekend's leader, New Line's ``Mortal Kombat - Annihilation,'' lost much of its potential audience to ``Alien Resurrection'' and looked likely to fall out of the top five with $10 million at 2,140 theaters for the five days.