`3 STRIKES' PREVENTS MILLION CRIMES, LAW'S AUTHOR SAYS.

Byline: Andy Furillo Sacramento Bee

More than a million crimes have been prevented, and $21.7 billion in related costs have been saved since the state's ``three strikes, you're out'' law went into effect five years ago, an author of the landmark legislation said Friday.

Secretary of State Bill Jones, in providing his interpretation of the ``three strikes'' results to a crime-victims conference, also substantially credited the 1994 bill with a 51 percent reduction in California's homicide rate.

``I think of all the statistics, the one that I think means the most . . . is the fact that 5,694 of our fellow Californians are alive today that would not have been alive if crime hadn't been substantially reduced,'' Jones said.

``I'm not saying `three strikes' is the sole reason for that. But in a state as diverse and complex as California, if you can have a 51 percent reduction in the homicide rate in five years, I would guarantee you `three strikes' is a big part of the reason.''

The ``three-strikes'' law was overwhelmingly passed by the Legislature in 1994, signed on an emergency basis by then-Gov. Pete Wilson and ratified by the state's voters by a 72-28 percent margin. It calls for terms of 25 years to life for anybody convicted of a felony who has two serious or violent prior felony convictions. New felony convictions on defendants with single prior ``strikes'' can result in a doubling of prison terms.

Court decisions that have come down since the law went into effect have allowed judges to dismiss prior ``strikes'' under certain circumstances.

Some criminal-justice experts have not been as quick as Jones to credit the landmark crime-fighting law for the dramatic downturn in crime.

They have attributed part of the drop to demographic changes in California resulting in fewer numbers of people in the prime crime-committing age groups. They also credit the lower crime rates to an improved economy that is employing tens of thousands more people and to an increased number of police officers taking a more preventive approach to lawlessness.

But one expert who had been as dubious as anybody about the law's impact came forth with some credit for it Friday.

``It's probably true that `three strikes' has had some impact, but it's difficult to know what it has been,'' said Peter Greenwood of the Rand Corp., whose predictions five years ago that the law would add $5 billion to the state's incarceration costs were trumpeted by ``three strikes'' opponents.

Greenwood, however, said the rest of the country also is experiencing ``these wonderful declines in crime'' over the past half-decade, making California's ``three strikes''-related crime drop ``hard to know.''

Jones, one of the leading Republican elected officials in the state, found the issue a little less complicated.

``I don't see any time frame in the history of California where you've seen this dramatic a drop,'' he said in an interview. ``And the fact that it coincides specifically with the passage of `three strikes' is not accidental. No other factor, no other law, no other condition in the history of California has had the dramatic impact `three strikes' has had in reducing crime in this state. Period.''

Besides the 5,694 fewer murders, Jones said there have been 6,923 fewer rapes, 172,045 fewer robberies, 111,223 fewer aggravated assaults, 454,654 fewer burglaries and 339,082 fewer motor vehicle thefts in the five years since ``three strikes'' went into effect. His spokesman, Alfie Charles, said the secretary of state arrived at the numbers by applying the 1993 crime rate to population increases over the ensuing years and subtracting the actual number of reported crimes from those projections.

By attaching ``tangible'' and ``societal'' costs to each crime, ranging from $3,700 for a stolen car to $2,940,000 for murder, Jones' office came up with the ``three-strikes'' cost savings of $21.7 billion, Charles said.

Jones also reported that rather than forcing a massive new prison construction boom, the ``three strikes'' era has produced fewer prisoners than Department of Corrections officials had projected without the law.

The secretary of state told the crime victims Friday they ``need to be vigilant'' to prevent the Legislature from trying to water down the law. He specifically cited a bill by Sen. Tom Hayden, D-Los Angeles, that would require the triggering third strike to be a violent felony.

Hayden, in calling for an amended version of the ``three strikes'' law, cited statistics showing that more than two-thirds of inmates sentenced on third-strike convictions committed nonviolent offenses. He said the ``three strikes'' law is ``blindly wasting taxpayer money.''

``It's a diversion of resources that could otherwise go to more police on the streets or more task forces trying to target for arrest and trial people who are perpetuating violent crimes,'' Hayden said.