'Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow'.

"Anything on paper is obsolete!"

- Craig Bruce 

Some visionaries predict the future. These are not people with mystic powers, but reasoning thinkers who look ahead. They know that tomorrow's events grow out of today's actions.

Several centuries ago, a wise observer was able to look at the first wheel and see a future when he wouldn't have to walk or ride on the back of a horse or camel to get anywhere.

By the time the 20th Century arrived, the invention of the motorcar made it possible to predict an end to large demand for horse-drawn carriages.

Five and a half centuries earlier, Johannes Gutenberg invented the printing press, rendering scribes obsolete and opening the possibilities for libraries and schools full of books. How we learnt changed completely.

Before the printing press, only the very wealthy could afford books. It was impossible to educate everyone. Universal education is a luxury provided by the printing press.

Those who were unable to look into the future didn't foresee the potential effects of these or any other inventions. They failed to recognise obsolescence.

Wikipedia states: "Obsolescence occurs when a person, object or service is no longer wanted even though it may still be in good working order.

"Obsolescence frequently occurs because a replacement has become available that is superior in one or more aspects."

Nobody wants to become obsolete, nor do we want the only job that we may have learnt to become obsolete. While progress can't be stopped, its painful effects can be relieved by adapting to change.

Unemployment due to obsolescence means that workers need to learn new skills or move to other places where their skills are needed.

A number of years ago, computers replaced typesetters in the UK, Europe and the US. In several places, coalmining has been made obsolete by oil.

Typesetters and miners have had to find other work.

Deregulation and free trade have encouraged many companies to outsource production. Companies relocate to places like China and India where labour is much cheaper than in the West. Workers in the West lose jobs.

The rule of thumb is that employees become obsolete either when: (1) they can be replaced by others or technology can do a better job at no additional cost, or (2) when employers can get the same job done for less cost.

Educators at several levels need to teach these basic economic facts so that education itself becomes geared to making people adaptable to changes brought about by obsolescence.

Many educators don't realise that it's they who are becoming obsolete. Just as education was revolutionised by the invention of the printing press, modern technology is revolutionising it again.

This doesn't mean we should merely be introducing TV in the classroom. It's also more than just learning how to use a computer. The stages for these uses of technology have passed.

Teachers have been among the slowest to adapt to changes. In some places, there are still those who teach by rote, a practice that became obsolete with the printing of books.

Most of the information that learners need to acquire is available (or soon will be) on the Internet. We need to learn how to get to that information, but once that's learned, experience tells us that young minds are off and running at a better pace than their elders.

It has become imperative that we think ahead, look for obsolescence, prepare for the inevitable changes and adapt to the new worlds we create.

Copyright 2009 Gulf Daily News

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