$1 MILLION MEDIAN? IT'S NOT AS OUTRAGEOUS AS IT SOUNDS.

Byline: GREGORY J. WILCOX

It's either a volcano close to blowing its top or a mountain still forming its peak.

Those two descriptions equally apply to the median price of a previously owned single-family house in the San Fernando Valley, which hit an astounding record high of $600,000 in July.

The view is troubling from both vantage points.

Recent buyers worry that they might be riding in the equity train's caboose, and those trying to buy for the first time fret over that event horizon is moving farther into the future.

This kind of price, that in July fetched a two-bedroom, one-bath house in North Hollywood, is either an anomaly or trend. Of course, that was the thinking last summer, when the median price punched through $500,000 for the first time, or the summer of 2003 when it first hit $400,000.

But consider this: At least one market watcher thinks a $1 million median is possible.

John Karevoll, an analyst at market tracker DataQuick Information Systems, chuckled last week when asked if a million dollar median is possible.

``There is no doubt it will,'' he said. ``The question is will it be five years from now or 15 years out but it's in the cards.''

High and low home price marks are psychological flash points, and the Valley has had its share. Here's the economic reality buyers dealt with on a few of those occasions:

--In November 1989, the median price hit a then record $245,000. It took a minimum income of $79,490 to buy that kind of house, and, with the average mortgage rate at 9.9 percent, the monthly payment was $1,987.

That month also marked the end of the previous strong seller's market because prices headed into a prolonged slump from that point on.

--By February 1997, the median price had fallen to $155,000. Mortgage rates averaged 7.84 percent then, and it took a minimum income of $42,970 to buy the median priced home. The monthly payment was $1,074.

That's as good as the last buyer's market got.

--Today, to buy a home at July's record median, you need to make at least $139,160. And, with interest rates around 5.84 percent, the monthly payment would be $3,479.

No one is ready to call an end to this seller's market, though.

There is still room for a price record or two.

The economy could be in for an extended run of good fortune, some market watchers believe, so home prices are not likely to collapse.

``At worst. we might see prices go flat, but I don't think any major price correction is coming down the pike unless there is some major upheaval in the economy,'' said Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist at the California Association of Realtors.

Gregory J. Wilcox, [phone]

greg.wilcox(at)dailynews.com